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000
FXUS63 KARX 282128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 3 PM...SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST OF HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIKE THE
28.00Z AND 28.06Z MODELS...THE 28.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...MODERATE TO STRONG
925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB.
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THAT THERE IS NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE FROM
ALOFT...THUS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS. THERE WERE A FEW -8C SHOWING AT TIMES...SO TOTALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEING DRIZZLE...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WEST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE SNOW PACK. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 AM FOR THESE AREAS. ONLY A LIGHT
GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES.

ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MODERATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 282128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 3 PM...SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST OF HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIKE THE
28.00Z AND 28.06Z MODELS...THE 28.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...MODERATE TO STRONG
925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB.
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THAT THERE IS NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE FROM
ALOFT...THUS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS. THERE WERE A FEW -8C SHOWING AT TIMES...SO TOTALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEING DRIZZLE...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WEST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE SNOW PACK. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 AM FOR THESE AREAS. ONLY A LIGHT
GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES.

ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MODERATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 281742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 272305
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC LIFT TO
PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 272305
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC LIFT TO
PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 272029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR/MVFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WIND GUSTS AT KRST WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 28.14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KRST AND DURING THE EVENING AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 272029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR/MVFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WIND GUSTS AT KRST WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 28.14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KRST AND DURING THE EVENING AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 271737
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR/MVFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WIND GUSTS AT KRST WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 28.14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KRST AND DURING THE EVENING AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 271737
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR/MVFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WIND GUSTS AT KRST WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 28.14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KRST AND DURING THE EVENING AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 271147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
547 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT OR NOT. WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH
IFR CEILINGS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THIS BAND. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...THIS
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND STAY AT LEAST
MVFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
GENERALLY STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 271147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
547 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT OR NOT. WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH
IFR CEILINGS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THIS BAND. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...THIS
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND STAY AT LEAST
MVFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
GENERALLY STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 270933
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
OF THE MVFR VARIETY BUT OCCASIONALLY VFR. WITH THE FLOW TURNING
NORTHERLY AND PLENTY OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD
WARMING...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUD WILL GET PUSHED LOWER
CAUSING CEILINGS TO LOWER. FOR NOW STILL KEPT THE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANTICIPATING CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA TO SURGE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.

ONLY LAST ITEM OF NOTE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LSE.
THESE SHOULD BE DONE BY 07Z AS THE TROUGH FORCING THEM WEAKENS.
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 270933
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A TROUGH
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN WI TO THE WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF
PRECIP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN WI BUT A FEW
-SHSN LINGERED ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM AROUND KLSE TO KDVN.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VFR STRATUS REMAINED ACROSS WI...MUCH OF MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AND WAS SLOWLY EXPANDING/ADVECTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ON THIS LATE JANUARY NIGHT...TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS STILL IN THE MID
30S ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
MODEL RUNS ON THE TROUGHING OVER WY AT 12Z WED. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE...THOUGH NUANCES OF LOW CLOUD/STRATUS
FCSTS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALWAYS TRICKY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...FLURRIES IN THE AREA COMING TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT EXITS...PRESSURES RISE AND THE
SFC-850MB TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON BOTH HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATE LOW CLOUD DECK
IS ABOUT 1500 FT THICK WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RH PROGS
SHOWING THIS MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR
925MB TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 925MB AND BELOW WILL NOT HELP ADVECT THIS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ANYWHERE FAST TODAY EITHER. RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND LOWERED
HIGHS A BIT THESE AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
WEST AND A WARM START...RAISED HIGHS A BIT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASE OF SFC-
925MB MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING 850MB WARM ADVECTION AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THIS WITH A SLOW INCREASE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SUSPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN/
PERSISTENT YET TONIGHT AND RAISED CLOUD COVER. TRENDED LOWS UP A BIT
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS BUT STAYED WITH A NICE BLEND
AGAINST THE NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
TOO COOL IF THE CLOUDS HANG ON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST END OF THE
FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
HIGHS ON WED.

27.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE WY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO NEB WED THEN INTO IL WED NIGHT. THIS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ALSO DROPS ACROSS MN WED NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE FEATURES. TREND SHOWS A
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU/THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE WED
THRU THU NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD.

FIRST UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM/UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS ON
WED. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA TO IMPEDE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FROM COMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW ON WED.
SOME VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS YET BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR 850MB
TEMP IN THE -1C TO +4C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA AT 00Z THU. GRANTED
850MB AIR WOULD NOT MIX TO THE SFC...BUT SHOWS A VERY WARM BUBBLE OF
OVER THE FCST AREA ON WED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE FOR MIXING WED. QUESTION WILL BE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY 925-800MB MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD AGAIN LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. FOR
NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S UNTIL THE CLOUD DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE INCREASE WED NIGHT
GENERALLY TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS MOSTLY WARMER
THAN -5C. APPEARS ICE WILL BE LACKING IN THE CLOUDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC-85M0MB
TROUGH PRODUCES CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU
TOWARD -DZ/-FZDZ AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. MODELS GENERALLY PRODUCING A
VERY LIGHT QPF/DRIZZLE PRECIP SIGNATURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS
WELL. IF -FZDZ STARTS TO LOOK CERTAIN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA...BASED ON SFC TEMPS WED NIGHT...MAY NEED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...AS WE WERE REMINDED MON THAT IT TAKES VERY
LITTLE -FZDZ TO MAKE UNTREATED ROADS SLICK. DID LIMIT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES THU TO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES A STRONGER
SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CAN SFC HIGH AND
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS/ DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
THU NIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS
FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...WITH THU NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO LATE
JAN NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE COOL-DOWN AND SNOW
CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

27.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR
RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TREND FOR SAT IS HIGHER HGTS/FLATTER FLOW OVER THE
REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTLY PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR COLD TROUGHING TO SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE TRENDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MUCH OF THE FRI THRU MON
PERIOD LEAVES A BIT TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

CAN HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR LATE JAN NORMALS. EARLIER
GFS RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW SPREAD A ROUND OF INCREASING SFC-500MB
MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUN MORNING. 20-40 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES
CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUN INTO MON. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -17C TO -23C RANGE AT
12Z MON. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON
APPEAR WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
OF THE MVFR VARIETY BUT OCCASIONALLY VFR. WITH THE FLOW TURNING
NORTHERLY AND PLENTY OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD
WARMING...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUD WILL GET PUSHED LOWER
CAUSING CEILINGS TO LOWER. FOR NOW STILL KEPT THE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANTICIPATING CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA TO SURGE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.

ONLY LAST ITEM OF NOTE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LSE.
THESE SHOULD BE DONE BY 07Z AS THE TROUGH FORCING THEM WEAKENS.
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 270522
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT REASONS:

1. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. THERE WAS A NICELY EVIDENT
VORT MAX ON RADAR THAT CAME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
23-01Z. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT HAS HELPED TO SQUASH A
LOT OF THE DEVELOPMENT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING ALONG
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LASTLY...ALL THE PREVIOUS SNOW
THAT WAS UP IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WI AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

2. ROADS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING RESULTING FROM TREATMENTS WORKING ON
THEM. THE DIMINISHING OF PRECIPITATION HAS ONLY AIDED THIS MORE.

DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT INVERTED TROUGH
AROUND...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXISTS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY
OUT ANYMORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
OF THE MVFR VARIETY BUT OCCASIONALLY VFR. WITH THE FLOW TURNING
NORTHERLY AND PLENTY OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD
WARMING...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUD WILL GET PUSHED LOWER
CAUSING CEILINGS TO LOWER. FOR NOW STILL KEPT THE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANTICIPATING CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA TO SURGE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.

ONLY LAST ITEM OF NOTE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LSE.
THESE SHOULD BE DONE BY 07Z AS THE TROUGH FORCING THEM WEAKENS.
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 270522
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT REASONS:

1. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. THERE WAS A NICELY EVIDENT
VORT MAX ON RADAR THAT CAME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
23-01Z. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT HAS HELPED TO SQUASH A
LOT OF THE DEVELOPMENT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING ALONG
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LASTLY...ALL THE PREVIOUS SNOW
THAT WAS UP IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WI AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

2. ROADS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING RESULTING FROM TREATMENTS WORKING ON
THEM. THE DIMINISHING OF PRECIPITATION HAS ONLY AIDED THIS MORE.

DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT INVERTED TROUGH
AROUND...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXISTS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY
OUT ANYMORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
OF THE MVFR VARIETY BUT OCCASIONALLY VFR. WITH THE FLOW TURNING
NORTHERLY AND PLENTY OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO...BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD
WARMING...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUD WILL GET PUSHED LOWER
CAUSING CEILINGS TO LOWER. FOR NOW STILL KEPT THE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANTICIPATING CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA TO SURGE THROUGH THE TAF SITES.

ONLY LAST ITEM OF NOTE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LSE.
THESE SHOULD BE DONE BY 07Z AS THE TROUGH FORCING THEM WEAKENS.
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 270256
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT REASONS:

1. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. THERE WAS A NICELY EVIDENT
VORT MAX ON RADAR THAT CAME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
23-01Z. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT HAS HELPED TO SQUASH A
LOT OF THE DEVELOPMENT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING ALONG
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LASTLY...ALL THE PREVIOUS SNOW
THAT WAS UP IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WI AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

2. ROADS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING RESULTING FROM TREATMENTS WORKING ON
THEM. THE DIMINISHING OF PRECIPITATION HAS ONLY AIDED THIS MORE.

DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT INVERTED TROUGH
AROUND...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXISTS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY
OUT ANYMORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS STALLED OUT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WEST OF THE TROUGH AT RST...CEILINGS ARE VFR...BUT ALONG THE
TROUGH AT LSE CEILINGS ARE MVFR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PRODUCE SOME -FZDZ AT LSE THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING
TREND TO THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE -FZDZ THREAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF MSP IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH RST THIS EVENING. THE COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO FALL THROUGH THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AT BOTH
TAF SITES SHOULD RISE GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND DAYTIME MIXING ASSISTS.

NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
MIXING TAKING PLACE NEAR THE GROUND.

REGARDING WINDS...A 15 KT BREEZE CONTINUES AT RST...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH THE TROUGH OVER LSE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS
THERE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 270256
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS IS DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT REASONS:

1. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. THERE WAS A NICELY EVIDENT
VORT MAX ON RADAR THAT CAME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
23-01Z. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT HAS HELPED TO SQUASH A
LOT OF THE DEVELOPMENT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING ALONG
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TROUGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LASTLY...ALL THE PREVIOUS SNOW
THAT WAS UP IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN WI AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

2. ROADS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING RESULTING FROM TREATMENTS WORKING ON
THEM. THE DIMINISHING OF PRECIPITATION HAS ONLY AIDED THIS MORE.

DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT INVERTED TROUGH
AROUND...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXISTS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY
OUT ANYMORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS STALLED OUT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WEST OF THE TROUGH AT RST...CEILINGS ARE VFR...BUT ALONG THE
TROUGH AT LSE CEILINGS ARE MVFR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PRODUCE SOME -FZDZ AT LSE THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING
TREND TO THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE -FZDZ THREAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF MSP IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH RST THIS EVENING. THE COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO FALL THROUGH THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AT BOTH
TAF SITES SHOULD RISE GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND DAYTIME MIXING ASSISTS.

NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
MIXING TAKING PLACE NEAR THE GROUND.

REGARDING WINDS...A 15 KT BREEZE CONTINUES AT RST...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH THE TROUGH OVER LSE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS
THERE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 262340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS STALLED OUT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WEST OF THE TROUGH AT RST...CEILINGS ARE VFR...BUT ALONG THE
TROUGH AT LSE CEILINGS ARE MVFR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PRODUCE SOME -FZDZ AT LSE THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING
TREND TO THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE -FZDZ THREAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF MSP IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH RST THIS EVENING. THE COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO FALL THROUGH THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AT BOTH
TAF SITES SHOULD RISE GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND DAYTIME MIXING ASSISTS.

NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
MIXING TAKING PLACE NEAR THE GROUND.

REGARDING WINDS...A 15 KT BREEZE CONTINUES AT RST...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH THE TROUGH OVER LSE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS
THERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 262340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS STALLED OUT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WEST OF THE TROUGH AT RST...CEILINGS ARE VFR...BUT ALONG THE
TROUGH AT LSE CEILINGS ARE MVFR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PRODUCE SOME -FZDZ AT LSE THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING
TREND TO THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE -FZDZ THREAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT NORTH OF MSP IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH RST THIS EVENING. THE COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO FALL THROUGH THE
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AT BOTH
TAF SITES SHOULD RISE GRADUALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND DAYTIME MIXING ASSISTS.

NO VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
MIXING TAKING PLACE NEAR THE GROUND.

REGARDING WINDS...A 15 KT BREEZE CONTINUES AT RST...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH THE TROUGH OVER LSE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS
THERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 262259
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF BAD ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...ESPECIALLY
SECONDARY ROADS.

ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT SITS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE STUCK NOW THAT
ITS PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHWEST WI WILL RIDE DOWN ALONG THIS FRONT...SETTING UP
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THIS ZONE BELOW FREEZING...WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS...RAP...26.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 26.18Z NAM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MASS OF SNOW MARCHING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD MARCH DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY. LUCKILY
IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
TREATED...THOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW UNTREATED ROADS
TO COOL AND MAKE THINGS WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 262131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 262131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 261930
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ADAMS
AND JUNEAU COUNTIES WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 261930
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO ADAMS
AND JUNEAU COUNTIES WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 261742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED...WE ARE EVEN SEEING SOME OF
THIS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ON LA CROSSE RIDGE.
THE DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 261742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED...WE ARE EVEN SEEING SOME OF
THIS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ON LA CROSSE RIDGE.
THE DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 261142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FOCUS OF THIS TAF PERIOD IS ON THE CHANCES FOR SNOW/DRIZZLE TODAY
ALONG WITH HOW LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITY REMAINS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY...A 2 TO
4 HOUR BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH VISIBILITY
DROPPING DOWN TO 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 14Z...THIS SNOW SHOULD BE OUT
OF RST/LSE WITH THE QUESTION BEING WHETHER ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORMS. THERE IS NOT MUCH OUT THERE CURRENTLY...BUT SOME
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES IN.
OVERALL...EXPECT PERIODS WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO IFR
WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT GOING INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 260920
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER RST AND WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY TOWARDS
LSE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. LSE
SHOULD GO MVFR BY 07Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW
INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 11Z...ALONG WITH A DROP OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR. RST COULD EVEN GO LIFR IN CEILINGS. TOWARDS
13Z AT RST AND 16Z AT LSE...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOST...CAUSING THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CEILING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON AT RST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LSE IS
TRICKY WIND WISE WITH BOTH FRONTS FORECAST TO LAY UP RIGHT NEAR
THE TAF SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH
SITES EXPECTED TO SEE CEILINGS INCREASE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES.

LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHILE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT LSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 260920
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT))
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH SNOW/
-FZDZ MAINLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A 999MB LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG WITH THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OF 5-6MB/3 HRS OVER NORTHWEST MN. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR TODAY COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY HEADED
INTO NORTHWEST MN. AREA RADARS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...WITH PRECIP /-SN/ SO FAR MAINLY
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST MN AS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WORKS TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN FURTHER WEST/SOUTH ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...FROM NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST WI TO NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN
IA/SOUTHWEST MN...WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE FCST FOR TODAY.

26.00Z MODELS ALL INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING
VARIOUS HI-RES WRF MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE AND ROUND OF DEEPER FORCING/LIFT DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TREND FAVORS
STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN
MORE IMPACT TO THE FCST AREA AS IT PASSES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR HGTS
TO QUICKLY START RISING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...FROM DIVERGENCE IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT JET MAX TO PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION...TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 275K-315K
LAYER...ROUGHLY THE 925-400MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. STRONGEST/
DEEPEST OF THE FORCING  PASSES IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME-FRAME...WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF IT WORKING TO SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY 925-500MB
PORTION OF THE COLUMN OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS...WITH PW
VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE INFLOW AIR...APPEARS A RATHER
VIGOROUS BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE COLUMN WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AND LIFT STRONGER EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK. OTHER
SIGNAL AMONG THE STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS IS DEEPER SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
AND MID LEVEL DRYING SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA. APPEARS
A SNOW-BURST TYPE BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EAST
OF THE MS RIVER...LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MUCH
OF THIS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. ONCE THE MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADS IN...ICE IS LOST IN THE CLOUDS. WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ LIFT IN THE 925-850MB SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SIGNAL FOR -DZ/-FZDZ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EAST/ PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...AND CONTINUED PRECIP
CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EVENING
CREW ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AND CONSIDERING EXPANDING THIS INTO AT
LEAST THE REST OF THE WI COUNTIES IN THE FCST AREA. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL EVENT UNFOLDS A BIT MORE TO ADJUST/ EXPAND THE ADVISORY
IF NEEDED.

ONE CONCERN IS HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT GETS TODAY AND RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS STALL IT NEAR THE MS
RIVER...OTHER TAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS I-94 BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ALONG/WEST I-94 WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIMITING -FZDZ POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILD IN
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWER CLOUDS LOOKING TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA AS 925-850MB MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...
LIMITING HOW FAR TEMPS MAY DROP TONIGHT. OVERALL USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TUE THRU WED NIGHT...NEXT WAVE THRU THE FLOW
AND -SN/-RA CHANCES WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUE INTO WED WITH
RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR A PAC ENERGY TOPPING THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE TO
AT LEAST PARTLY PHASE WITH REMNANTS OF THE CA BAJA ENERGY AND MOVE
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY WED NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THRU WED THEN AVERAGE WED NIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT REMAINS NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SIGNAL FOR THIS FLOW TO ADVECT THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WED...WITH TUE THRU WED TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOME 10F TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS...WHICH ALL THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH...USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS TUE THRU WED. SFC THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FIELDS AND FORCING AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM ALL PLAY INTO
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW...A 30-40
PERCENT -SN/-RA CHANCE WED NIGHT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR WED NIGHT.

FOR THU THRU SUN...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOW
CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THU...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI. DIFFERENCES IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE PRESENT AMONG
THE MODELS FOR SAT/SUN. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TAKES A HIT BY
SAT/SUN AS WELL. GFS OFFERS A CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WHILE ECMWF DROPS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR
THU/FRI THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SFC-700MB TROUGHING AND PV ADVECTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED NIGHT TROUGHING TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION THU. SMALL -SN CHANCE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI...UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. LOOSE
CONSISTENCY SIGNAL FOR SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SAT...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
A SFC WAVE/LOW...ECMWF MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS WHICH
TRACKS A SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA. SMALL -SN CHANCE SAT OKAY
FOR NOW. BY SUN...ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GFS HAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY...WITH
925MB TEMPS ABOUT 10C WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE ECMWF BY 02.00Z.
GIVEN AVERAGE TO BELOW CONFIDENCE AND NO ONE MODEL A BETTER
PERFORMER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS WINTER...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER RST AND WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY TOWARDS
LSE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. LSE
SHOULD GO MVFR BY 07Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW
INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 11Z...ALONG WITH A DROP OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR. RST COULD EVEN GO LIFR IN CEILINGS. TOWARDS
13Z AT RST AND 16Z AT LSE...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOST...CAUSING THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CEILING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON AT RST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LSE IS
TRICKY WIND WISE WITH BOTH FRONTS FORECAST TO LAY UP RIGHT NEAR
THE TAF SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH
SITES EXPECTED TO SEE CEILINGS INCREASE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES.

LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHILE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT LSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ079-088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 260535
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER RST AND WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY TOWARDS
LSE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. LSE
SHOULD GO MVFR BY 07Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW
INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 11Z...ALONG WITH A DROP OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR. RST COULD EVEN GO LIFR IN CEILINGS. TOWARDS
13Z AT RST AND 16Z AT LSE...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOST...CAUSING THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CEILING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON AT RST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LSE IS
TRICKY WIND WISE WITH BOTH FRONTS FORECAST TO LAY UP RIGHT NEAR
THE TAF SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH
SITES EXPECTED TO SEE CEILINGS INCREASE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES.

LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHILE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT LSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
     088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 260535
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER RST AND WAS EXPANDING QUICKLY TOWARDS
LSE LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP. LSE
SHOULD GO MVFR BY 07Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW
INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 11Z...ALONG WITH A DROP OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR. RST COULD EVEN GO LIFR IN CEILINGS. TOWARDS
13Z AT RST AND 16Z AT LSE...THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOST...CAUSING THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO CEILING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY NOON AT RST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LSE IS
TRICKY WIND WISE WITH BOTH FRONTS FORECAST TO LAY UP RIGHT NEAR
THE TAF SITE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH
SITES EXPECTED TO SEE CEILINGS INCREASE TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES.

LOOKING AT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH...WHILE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT LSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
     088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 260231
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
     088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 260231
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SEEING A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW ENDS...WHILE IN
TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
TO FALL THAN WHATS EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THATS BECAUSE THE
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ADD SOME CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AT BOULDER ALSO
SHOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND
INTO THE LSE AREA...RIGHT AT MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MESS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LEFT UNTREATED.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVING THIS PRECIPITATION COME THROUGH AT MORNING
COMMUTE TIME IS ALSO A PROBLEM. THESE ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
     088-096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252341
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252341
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOLLOWING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR MONDAY AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE 25.15Z SREF...25.18Z
NAM/GFS AND 25.21Z RAP FOR SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IN THE MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AS WELL AS HAVING THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SITUATED OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT. THE CONCERN
BECOMES WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION LEAVE THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING...CAUSING MID-LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LOSS OF ICE IN
THE CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WE STILL HAVE THAT WARM FRONT COMING INTO
THE REGION FROM NEAR I-35 TO PROVIDE THAT LOW LEVEL LIFT. THUS IT
APPEARS LIKELY WE SHOULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BY MID-LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES.

ONE BENEFIT IS THAT SNOW IS STARTING OUT FIRST...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...IF ROADS DO NOT GET TREATED...THEY COULD EASILY BE
SLIPPERY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITH THE SNOW COMING IN AT
COMMUTE TIME. SO BOTH SOME PROS AND CONS FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT FARTHER
EAST THAN A ROCHESTER TO OELWEIN LINE...KEEPING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER COUNTIES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS PLENTY TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING...WHICH COULD THEN FREEZE IF OUR
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD. ON THE OTHER HAND...DAYLIGHT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HEAT UP ROADS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TYPE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON AMOUNTS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THE 25.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS EVENING WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN AN 850 HPA
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES ACROSS MN AND
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MODEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
AND SATURATED TO AROUND 500 HPA FOR ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...AS DAY
PROGRESSES...ICE LOSS OCCURS AS 700 TO 500 HPA LAYER DRYS OUT.
WITH SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EAU CLAIRE TO BLACK RIVER FALLS TO PLATTEVILLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
FARTHER WEST TO THE MS RIVER...A QUICKER CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH TO AN INCH
RANGE. SNOW WEST OF THE RIVER WILL BE A TRACE TO HALF INCH.

A THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT
BECAUSE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND WHEN ICE LOSS OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOIST AN ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE A POSSIBILITY AND CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IF
ICE ACCUMULATION DOES HAPPEN...IT SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PUSH EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM
+2 TO +5 C. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE...BUT LOWER
40S A REAL POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
SOUTHWEST WI. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPS-UP ACROSS WI.

LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED LSE BUT REMAINS STUCK FROM RST TO
I-35. WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING LIGHT...THE MVFR STRATUS AT
RST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LSE STAYS VFR.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM NORTHERN MN WILL TURN THE WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
THE STRATUS NEAR I-35 BACK INTO LSE AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
11-12Z...WITH THAT MOISTURE HELPING TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR...OR POSSIBLY LIFR AT RST. AROUND 13Z AT RST
AND 16Z AT LSE...DRYING COMING IN AROUND 10000 FT WILL HELP SCOUR
OUT THE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CAUSING THE SNOW TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END AT RST AROUND
15Z. HOWEVER...AT LSE...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ICING PART ENDING AROUND 19Z AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WEAKENS...BUT
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DOWN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A GLAZE AT MOST...WITH SNOW TOTALS
LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ





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