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000
FXUS63 KARX 241135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND CLOUDS THE INITIAL CONCERN TODAY...THEN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
AND DENSE FOG SHROUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THANKS TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PASS THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TO CONTEND WITH.

FIRST...LOCAL STUDIES AND USE OF GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE ADDED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT TO LIMIT THE INFLUX
OF SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX AND ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...
OUR FEELING IS THAT THE AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
ANTICIPATE THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME IN SOME
AREAS.

WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...WEAK Q-G SIGNAL SEEN IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. WHILE THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH
THAT WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THANKS
FOR THE COORDINATION MKX/DVN/DMX.

FOR TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. FEEL THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON POTENTIAL BASED ON WHAT
TRANSPIRES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD/FOG/RAIN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SURPRESSED TODAY THANKS TO ALL OF THE
ABOVE...SO HAVE UNDERCUT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EVEN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SASK/MT REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES DO APPEAR TO LIE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SPREAD OUT THE RAIN CHANCES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER SATURATION. BRIEF DRY PERIOD AS
THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING RESULTING FROM A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND VERY MOISTURE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR CATEGORY IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW
SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THINKING THE SHRA WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. MAY
HAVE TO RE- EVALUATE THIS THOUGH AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. PLAN ON
KRST/KLSE SLIPPING BACK INTO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH STILL VERY MOIST CONDITIONS. APPEARS
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SCOURING OUT THE STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 240825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND CLOUDS THE INITIAL CONCERN TODAY...THEN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
AND DENSE FOG SHROUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THANKS TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PASS THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TO CONTEND WITH.

FIRST...LOCAL STUDIES AND USE OF GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE ADDED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT TO LIMIT THE INFLUX
OF SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX AND ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...
OUR FEELING IS THAT THE AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
ANTICIPATE THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME IN SOME
AREAS.

WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...WEAK Q-G SIGNAL SEEN IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. WHILE THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH
THAT WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THANKS
FOR THE COORDINATION MKX/DVN/DMX.

FOR TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. FEEL THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON POTENTIAL BASED ON WHAT
TRANSPIRES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD/FOG/RAIN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SURPRESSED TODAY THANKS TO ALL OF THE
ABOVE...SO HAVE UNDERCUT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EVEN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SASK/MT REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES DO APPEAR TO LIE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SPREAD OUT THE RAIN CHANCES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER SATURATION. BRIEF DRY PERIOD AS
THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 240439
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 240222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 240222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 232302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 231945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE STARTING
AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG. IFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING
OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL
TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT
BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 231945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE STARTING
AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG. IFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING
OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL
TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT
BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 231802
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLSE STARTING AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN
FOG. IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE MIXING OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 231802
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLSE STARTING AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN
FOG. IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE MIXING OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 231137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL AVIATION CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH AND THEN CLEARS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A VARIETY
OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS HELPING TO PUSH
AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK OF RAIN IS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND MOVING EAST. VFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM EASTERN
IOWA UP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR AS YOU
MOVE WEST...CLOSER TO FRONT. IN FACT LIFR CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL
EXIST TO THE WEST. BIG QUESTION HOW LOW WILL CONDITIONS GET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SO WILL STICK WITH MVFR...BORDERING ON IFR.

AS WAVE MOVES EAST...CLEARING SHOULD ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EVENING. WITH FRONT WASHING OUT AND GRADIENT
SLACKENING TONIGHT...FOG COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN. UNSURE ON
EXTENT SINCE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
BUT FURTHER EAST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR...HIGHER FOG
RISK EXISTS. LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG BUT DETAILS WILL BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 230855
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 221950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS AT KRST AND
16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING
THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z.
THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221513
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 221125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 220852
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 211955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 211738
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





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