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000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 270842
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270842
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN IFR/MVFR DECK AT THE TAF
SITE THROUGH 27.14Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
4 TO 6K RANGE. THESE CEILINGS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN
27.14Z AND 27.17Z. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THROUGH 27.11Z...VISIBILITIES AT KRST WILL DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5
STATUE MILE RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 262354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A DRY SLOT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE TAF SITES. AS THIS OCCURS...
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND RAIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY 27.0130Z.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT KRST AND 3000
FEET AT KLSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CEILINGS BETWEEN 27.08Z AND
27.11Z AT KRST BECAUSE BOTH THE SIMULATED SATELLITE AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CLEARING AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER
27.14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 262354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A DRY SLOT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE TAF SITES. AS THIS OCCURS...
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND RAIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY 27.0130Z.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT KRST AND 3000
FEET AT KLSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CEILINGS BETWEEN 27.08Z AND
27.11Z AT KRST BECAUSE BOTH THE SIMULATED SATELLITE AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CLEARING AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER
27.14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 262354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A DRY SLOT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE TAF SITES. AS THIS OCCURS...
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND RAIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY 27.0130Z.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT KRST AND 3000
FEET AT KLSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CEILINGS BETWEEN 27.08Z AND
27.11Z AT KRST BECAUSE BOTH THE SIMULATED SATELLITE AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CLEARING AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER
27.14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 262354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A DRY SLOT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE TAF SITES. AS THIS OCCURS...
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND RAIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY 27.0130Z.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT KRST AND 3000
FEET AT KLSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CEILINGS BETWEEN 27.08Z AND
27.11Z AT KRST BECAUSE BOTH THE SIMULATED SATELLITE AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE CLEARING AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER
27.14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261949
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS
WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW JAUNT TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY WED. DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICALLY
FUELED REGION OF MAINLY SHOWERS NORTH-WEST OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MESO MODELS KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF I-90 ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

THE DRY DAY THAT WEDNESDAY PROMISED IS NOT LOOKING AS CLEAR CUT
ANYMORE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT
12Z...WHILE A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST
WI...INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST...BUT THE OTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON - BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH IT. THE NAM
AND GFS BUILD AS MUCH AS 2 K J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
WI WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD.
ENOUGH LIFT/SATURATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE I-94 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. POINTS WEST OF THERE SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUN...AND
SOME WARM...SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW A LOFT
USHERING IN VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS
WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
NORTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION...LINKING UP WITH ANOTHER
LOW/TROUGH COMBO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS BUILDS 2000+
J/KG OF SBCAPE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE WIND SHEAR ALONG AND POST THE FRONT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST
A PERKY LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...SOME MORNING PCPN ALSO APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY...AND
WITH CLOUD COVER A QUESTION MARK...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH THOUGH...AS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LATEST GFS RUN HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC THINKING FOR
SAT. BOTH SAG THAT FRONT SOUTH BY SAT MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAD
REMAINED ADAMANT WITH SLIPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT MORNING...RIDING WEST-EAST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A WET MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOW
TRENDS IN BOTH MODELS - PLUS THE GEM - ARE DRY. WILL PAINT THE
FORECAST THIS WAY.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY...BUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
GOING FROM 14 C AT 00Z SAT TO 6 C BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR
STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO VFR
IN THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 261734
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR
STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO VFR
IN THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 261734
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR
STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO VFR
IN THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 261134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AVIATION WEATHER SEEMS A BIT MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD THIS MORNING WITH
MAIN IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BASED ON INCOMING
CONVECTION. MOST AREAS VFR THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING RETURN TO MVFR
AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIEST RAIN.

BASED ON TRACK OF WAVE AND RELATED SURFACE LOW...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO SWING IN THIS MORNING BUT LOCATION OF PIVOT WILL
MEAN WESTERN AREAS /KRST/ MAY SIT UNDER SHOWERS NEARLY ALL DAY.
COULD SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS BASED ON RAIN INTENSITY.
FURTHER EAST /KLSE/ MIGHT SEE BREAK IN ACTIVITY AS EASTERN/LEADING
EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWINGS THROUGH.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...EXPECT AN END TO PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO VFR
CEILINGS. ASSUMING CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR MUCH OF NIGHT...BUT IF IT
CLEARS WITH THE LIGHT WIND...COULD SEE SOME LOCAL FOG IMPACT SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 261134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AVIATION WEATHER SEEMS A BIT MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD THIS MORNING WITH
MAIN IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BASED ON INCOMING
CONVECTION. MOST AREAS VFR THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING RETURN TO MVFR
AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIEST RAIN.

BASED ON TRACK OF WAVE AND RELATED SURFACE LOW...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO SWING IN THIS MORNING BUT LOCATION OF PIVOT WILL
MEAN WESTERN AREAS /KRST/ MAY SIT UNDER SHOWERS NEARLY ALL DAY.
COULD SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS BASED ON RAIN INTENSITY.
FURTHER EAST /KLSE/ MIGHT SEE BREAK IN ACTIVITY AS EASTERN/LEADING
EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SWINGS THROUGH.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...EXPECT AN END TO PRECIPITATION AND RETURN TO VFR
CEILINGS. ASSUMING CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR MUCH OF NIGHT...BUT IF IT
CLEARS WITH THE LIGHT WIND...COULD SEE SOME LOCAL FOG IMPACT SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 260824
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MESSY SET OF TAFS THIS CYCLE WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT THE CLEAREST OF SIGNALS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IA LATE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE LIFTING
TOWARD THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS TO IMPACT KLSE
MORE AND MAINLY PASS EAST OF KRST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION PASSES...GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED
IN THE 09Z-15Z PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE...ROUND OF
LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SHRA EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...THEN WITH AN INCREASE OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA/BR. LEFT TSRA
MENTION IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD AS VCTS/CB...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS SHRA
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND TSRA LOOKING TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE.
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSRA WOULD DROP TO IFR. EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SFC-MID LEVEL LOW TUE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
MVFR CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE EVENING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 260824
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OKLAHOMA WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW DECENT PV
ADVECTION/QG FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF
0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY PUSH THIS SHEAR EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TODAY. THE NAM/GFS TRY TO BUILD 500-1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER THIS SAME AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AS SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSE/SURFACE FRONT PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ARE SEEN BETWEEN
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT JUST WEST
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK QG FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SLOWLY MOVE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 26.00Z EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AS THE 256.00Z GFS/GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
THAN THE ECMWF. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING LESSER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MESSY SET OF TAFS THIS CYCLE WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT THE CLEAREST OF SIGNALS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IA LATE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE LIFTING
TOWARD THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS TO IMPACT KLSE
MORE AND MAINLY PASS EAST OF KRST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION PASSES...GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED
IN THE 09Z-15Z PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE...ROUND OF
LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SHRA EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...THEN WITH AN INCREASE OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA/BR. LEFT TSRA
MENTION IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD AS VCTS/CB...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS SHRA
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND TSRA LOOKING TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE.
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSRA WOULD DROP TO IFR. EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SFC-MID LEVEL LOW TUE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
MVFR CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE EVENING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 260448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MESSY SET OF TAFS THIS CYCLE WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT THE CLEAREST OF SIGNALS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IA LATE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE LIFTING
TOWARD THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS TO IMPACT KLSE
MORE AND MAINLY PASS EAST OF KRST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION PASSES...GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED
IN THE 09Z-15Z PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE...ROUND OF
LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SHRA EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...THEN WITH AN INCREASE OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA/BR. LEFT TSRA
MENTION IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD AS VCTS/CB...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS SHRA
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND TSRA LOOKING TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE.
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSRA WOULD DROP TO IFR. EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SFC-MID LEVEL LOW TUE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
MVFR CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 260448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MESSY SET OF TAFS THIS CYCLE WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT THE CLEAREST OF SIGNALS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IA LATE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE LIFTING
TOWARD THE TAF SITES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS TO IMPACT KLSE
MORE AND MAINLY PASS EAST OF KRST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION PASSES...GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED
IN THE 09Z-15Z PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE...ROUND OF
LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SHRA EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...THEN WITH AN INCREASE OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON. CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA/BR. LEFT TSRA
MENTION IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD AS VCTS/CB...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS SHRA
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND TSRA LOOKING TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE.
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSRA WOULD DROP TO IFR. EVEN WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SFC-MID LEVEL LOW TUE AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
MVFR CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 252340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS TAF FCST PERIOD REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBYS. WHAT FORCING THERE IS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH RATHER QUIET...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
SIGNAL AMONG SEVERAL OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS FOR REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF KOMA EARLY THIS EVENING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI AFTER 06Z. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ON THIS SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH IN THE 06Z-
10Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION DOES LOOK TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...FOR BKN DECKS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA TUE MORNING...THEN INTO/
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. NOT A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE CONVECTION DETAILS FOR TUE...BUT TREND IS FOR SHRA TO
BECOME LIKELY BY LATER TUE MORNING...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW CARRIED -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS FOR LATER
TUE MORNING...THEN -SHRA/VCTS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
DETAIL FOR MUCH OF TUE WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS MODELS REACH A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AND CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE TUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 252340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS TAF FCST PERIOD REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBYS. WHAT FORCING THERE IS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH RATHER QUIET...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
SIGNAL AMONG SEVERAL OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS FOR REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF KOMA EARLY THIS EVENING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI AFTER 06Z. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ON THIS SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH IN THE 06Z-
10Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION DOES LOOK TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...FOR BKN DECKS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA TUE MORNING...THEN INTO/
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. NOT A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE CONVECTION DETAILS FOR TUE...BUT TREND IS FOR SHRA TO
BECOME LIKELY BY LATER TUE MORNING...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW CARRIED -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS FOR LATER
TUE MORNING...THEN -SHRA/VCTS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
DETAIL FOR MUCH OF TUE WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS MODELS REACH A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AND CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE TUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 252340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS TAF FCST PERIOD REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBYS. WHAT FORCING THERE IS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH RATHER QUIET...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
SIGNAL AMONG SEVERAL OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS FOR REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF KOMA EARLY THIS EVENING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI AFTER 06Z. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ON THIS SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH IN THE 06Z-
10Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION DOES LOOK TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...FOR BKN DECKS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA TUE MORNING...THEN INTO/
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. NOT A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE CONVECTION DETAILS FOR TUE...BUT TREND IS FOR SHRA TO
BECOME LIKELY BY LATER TUE MORNING...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW CARRIED -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS FOR LATER
TUE MORNING...THEN -SHRA/VCTS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
DETAIL FOR MUCH OF TUE WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS MODELS REACH A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AND CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE TUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 252340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS TAF FCST PERIOD REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ALONG WITH CIGS/VSBYS. WHAT FORCING THERE IS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH RATHER QUIET...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
SIGNAL AMONG SEVERAL OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS FOR REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF KOMA EARLY THIS EVENING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI AFTER 06Z. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ON THIS SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH IN THE 06Z-
10Z TIME-FRAME FOR NOW. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION DOES LOOK TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...FOR BKN DECKS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA TUE MORNING...THEN INTO/
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. NOT A VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE CONVECTION DETAILS FOR TUE...BUT TREND IS FOR SHRA TO
BECOME LIKELY BY LATER TUE MORNING...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA TUE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW CARRIED -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS FOR LATER
TUE MORNING...THEN -SHRA/VCTS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
DETAIL FOR MUCH OF TUE WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER AS MODELS REACH A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AND CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE TUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 251943
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST GIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA...
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE FOR
GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID... CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS AND
WILL COVER THREAT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS SOMETIMES BOUNCY BETWEEN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (3000 FT
AGL AND 2000 FT AGL). MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
CLOUD MASS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 251943
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MORNING ROUND OF THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY PCPN HAS EXITED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY WON/T BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS WAVERING ACROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY IS ON THE CLIMB. RAP
SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY
00Z. SHEAR IS DECENT ALONG THE FRONT...30-35 KTS 0-6 KM...BULK OF
WHICH IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. MESO MODELS PERCOLATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE
FRONT...MORE SO THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. ITS A PRETTY SMALL
THREAT...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ANYTHING ON THE FRONT WOULD
POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND HOPWRF SUGGEST A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS INTO IOWA THIS EVENING...WHICH
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...WHICH COULD THEN TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. CURRENTLY - RADAR IMAGERY
POINTS TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADED NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA...CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST ARW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING BY 00Z.

THE WARM FRONT IS STILL HANGING AROUND ON TUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SWINGS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEPICT AN INITIAL BIT OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. THE
FIRST PIECE COULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE AS A
RESULT...WITH THE AFTERNOON THE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. MUDDLED
SKY COVER PROMISES TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY 00Z WED. BETTER SHEAR IS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING ONTO THE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING ZONAL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE THE DRY DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AS A WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED MOSTLY ACROSS CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP WEST-EAST...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD THE
FRONT IN...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF 1000 J/KG OR SO OF SBCAPE ON
FRIDAY. SHEAR WEAK TO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT - BUT IT IS A TIME
FRAME OF INTEREST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GFS/EC ALSO IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
VARIOUS WEATHER FEATURES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC IS CURRENTLY FAVORING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING ITS SAG SOUTH. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT
WOULD TOSS BITS OF ENERGY OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. RAIN COULD RESULT. CONFIDENCE LOWER
IN THIS PERIOD AND WILL LET CONSENSUS SHAPE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST GIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA...
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE FOR
GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID... CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF AIRFIELDS AND
WILL COVER THREAT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS SOMETIMES BOUNCY BETWEEN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (3000 FT
AGL AND 2000 FT AGL). MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
CLOUD MASS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 251740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST DECENT QG
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BIG QUESTION IS IF THE
REGION BUILDS ANY INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM TRY TO BUILD 1000-1500 J/KG 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY...THE LATEST 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING
AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB AND 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON BUILDING INSTABILITY. DUE TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BUILD UP MUCH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES TO ISOLATED. IF FORECAST AREA SEES ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING OF THE IMPULSES AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
25.00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT EAST AND
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST GIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA...
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE FOR
GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
TAF AIRFIELDS AND WILL COVER THREAT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS SOMETIMES BOUNCY BETWEEN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(3000 FT AGL AND 2000 FT AGL). MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE CLOUD MASS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 251740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST DECENT QG
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BIG QUESTION IS IF THE
REGION BUILDS ANY INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM TRY TO BUILD 1000-1500 J/KG 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY...THE LATEST 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING
AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB AND 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON BUILDING INSTABILITY. DUE TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BUILD UP MUCH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES TO ISOLATED. IF FORECAST AREA SEES ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING OF THE IMPULSES AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
25.00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT EAST AND
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST GIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA...
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE FOR
GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
TAF AIRFIELDS AND WILL COVER THREAT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS SOMETIMES BOUNCY BETWEEN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(3000 FT AGL AND 2000 FT AGL). MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE CLOUD MASS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 251120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST DECENT QG
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BIG QUESTION IS IF THE
REGION BUILDS ANY INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM TRY TO BUILD 1000-1500 J/KG 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY...THE LATEST 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING
AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB AND 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON BUILDING INSTABILITY. DUE TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BUILD UP MUCH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES TO ISOLATED. IF FORECAST AREA SEES ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING OF THE IMPULSES AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
25.00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT EAST AND
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN
AREA GIVEN PROXIMTY OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. COMBINED WITH
THAT ARE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
BRINGING WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS.

WILL PLAY IDEA OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 EARLY THIS MORNING AND TREND MORE TOWARDS EVEN VFR
AS DAY WEARS ON...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND BREAK IN RAIN
EXPECTED. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PASSING LOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT IN MORE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 250817
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST DECENT QG
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BIG QUESTION IS IF THE
REGION BUILDS ANY INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM TRY TO BUILD 1000-1500 J/KG 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY...THE LATEST 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING
AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB AND 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON BUILDING INSTABILITY. DUE TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BUILD UP MUCH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES TO ISOLATED. IF FORECAST AREA SEES ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING OF THE IMPULSES AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
25.00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT EAST AND
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 250817
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING
RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST DECENT QG
FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE NOSE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BIG QUESTION IS IF THE
REGION BUILDS ANY INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM TRY TO BUILD 1000-1500 J/KG 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BY 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. SEVERE
RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY...THE LATEST 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND
FARTHER WESTWARD WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE WEAK QG FORCING
AND PV ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB AND 0-6KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH ON BUILDING INSTABILITY. DUE TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BUILD UP MUCH INSTABILITY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES TO ISOLATED. IF FORECAST AREA SEES ANY PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING OF THE IMPULSES AND
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
25.00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT EAST AND
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 250449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 250449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 250449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 250449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCT -SHRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROAD
SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
WESTERN MO. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/WESTERN WI AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO
NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES AND THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS BRISK/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD DEEPER MIXING AND
SOME DRYING INTO THE AREA. TREND IS FOR CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 2000-
3500 FT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH MONDAY EVENING...WITH AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE 00-06Z
PERIOD FOR NOW AS DETAILS MON EVENING ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. MAY NEED
A TSRA/CB MENTION AFTER 26.00Z DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FCST CYCLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242321
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONE BAND OF -RA/RA HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A WARM
FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN IL.
BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND AND THE FRONT MVFR/IFR CIGS WERE COMMON...
WITH MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE EVENING WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS THRU...SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WITH DEEPER MIXING AND IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER OK EARLY THIS EVENING IS GOING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING MON. THIS WAVE
IS LOOKING TO PASS WITH A ROUND OF -RA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...AND CARRY THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING MON. SPREAD IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY
LATER MON MORNING AND FOR MON AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
DRYING AND BRISK/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 242321
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONE BAND OF -RA/RA HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A WARM
FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN IL.
BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND AND THE FRONT MVFR/IFR CIGS WERE COMMON...
WITH MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE EVENING WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS THRU...SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WITH DEEPER MIXING AND IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER OK EARLY THIS EVENING IS GOING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING MON. THIS WAVE
IS LOOKING TO PASS WITH A ROUND OF -RA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...AND CARRY THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING MON. SPREAD IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY
LATER MON MORNING AND FOR MON AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
DRYING AND BRISK/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242321
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONE BAND OF -RA/RA HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A WARM
FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN IL.
BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND AND THE FRONT MVFR/IFR CIGS WERE COMMON...
WITH MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE EVENING WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS THRU...SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WITH DEEPER MIXING AND IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER OK EARLY THIS EVENING IS GOING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING MON. THIS WAVE
IS LOOKING TO PASS WITH A ROUND OF -RA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...AND CARRY THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING MON. SPREAD IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY
LATER MON MORNING AND FOR MON AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
DRYING AND BRISK/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242321
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONE BAND OF -RA/RA HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A WARM
FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN IL.
BETWEEN THE RAIN BAND AND THE FRONT MVFR/IFR CIGS WERE COMMON...
WITH MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN BR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE EVENING WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS THRU...SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WITH DEEPER MIXING AND IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER OK EARLY THIS EVENING IS GOING TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING MON. THIS WAVE
IS LOOKING TO PASS WITH A ROUND OF -RA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...AND CARRY THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING MON. SPREAD IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY
LATER MON MORNING AND FOR MON AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
DRYING AND BRISK/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 242014
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
24.19 TO 24.20Z TIME FRAME. WILL COVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VCSH...BUT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING...MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IA/
SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AT KRST LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHEREAS KLSE MAY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN 24.18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM MIST IN THE 2 TO 5
SM RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5
TO 15 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. &&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242014
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A WAVERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION POWERED SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHIELD. TRENDS WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST WI...QUICKLY
EXITING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS
LOW...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED...BUT ENOUGH FORCING
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
LINE.

OVERNIGHT A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...LIKELY INTO
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. NOT MUCH/IF ANY
INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THIS STEAD EITHER...AND THE THUNDER THREAT
LOOKS LOW. MESO MODELS TREND EXITING THE RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z.

DRIER AIR WORKS IN POST THE MORNING SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON OF MEMORIAL DAY.
INSTABILITY IS SLATED TO CLIMB THOUGH...AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPES IN
THE NAM/GFS BY 00Z. 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM OF SHEAR BY THAT TIME TOO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAIN STATES
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY LAYING UP
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
FIRE IN THE REGION OF THE BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LIKELY TAPING
INTO SOME OF THE INSTABILITY THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER - POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE...AND SHOULD GENERATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE GFS/NAM
PRODUCE ABOUT 1000 J/JG OF MUCAPE...WITH ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-3 KM
SHEAR. NOT SURE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH/ANY CLEARING TO HELP GENERATE
THE INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS POINT TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHUFFLING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIDGES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE A
LOFT SLIPS OVER THE REGION. A SHOWER/STORM THREAT WOULD RETURN THU
NIGHT-SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SLIDES A FRONT IN...AND THEN BITS OF
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOW RIDE UP THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THESE VARIOUS
FEATURES MOVE IN/OUT ALONG WITH PARTICULARS ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER IN AND OUT WITH THE PCPN MAKERS...WITH THE EC SLOWER AND
HANGING ONTO CHANCES INTO SAT. GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL SIDE
WITH CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WITH SOME
LEANINGS TOWARD THE GFS.


&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
24.19 TO 24.20Z TIME FRAME. WILL COVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VCSH...BUT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING...MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IA/
SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AT KRST LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHEREAS KLSE MAY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN 24.18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM MIST IN THE 2 TO 5
SM RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5
TO 15 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. &&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 241740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE ENDING TODAY AS IMPACT FROM
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO BE FELT ACROSS
CORNBELT AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
OF RAIN OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALONG WITH LOWER RISK OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND BASE AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN GENERATING WIDE SPREAD
CONVECTION FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND
LIGHTNING RISK REMAINS WELL SOUTH.

AS LEAD WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO
CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN THREAT TO MATCH TRENDS...WHICH
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK. MAY TAKE
QUITE AWHILE TO REACH INTERSTATE 94 BATTLING DRIER AIR INITIALLY.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...COULD SEE A BREAK IN RAIN THREAT DURING PART OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WAVE...WHICH APPEARS STRONGER IN
GUIDANCE...FORCES MORE CONVECTION INTO AREA TONIGHT. MAY BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC BUT TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BACK TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. CAPE IS BASICALLY NIL
FOR MUCH OF DAY BUT SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH. THIS COMBINED WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
WILL CERTAINLY AID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS WHERE
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF WAVE COULD BE STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

STILL LOOKING LIKE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO OPEN WAVE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY ON MEMORIAL DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS EARLY MONDAY THOUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRONGER WAVE ADVECTS NORTHEAST. MODELS TRACK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND DRAW WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY INTO AREA WITH MUCH HIGHER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF WE BREAK
INTO SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB QUICK SO DID RAISE A
FEW DEGREES.

INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IT APPEARS WITH AMPLE 0-3KM
SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DETAILS ON ANY
THREAT MAY HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT NEAR REAL-TIME DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLIER CONVECTION INHIBITS SETUP. MARGINAL RISK VIA SPC SEEMS ON
TRACK BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SLIGHT LEVEL
PROBABILITIES ARE ADDED AT SOME POINT.

BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION
ALONG THIS...BRINGING HIGHEST RAIN RISK ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS.

WHILE WE COULD SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN THREAT MID WEEK...MEAN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND PRODUCE RAIN THREATS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE NORTH BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND
PUSHES FRONT THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
24.19 TO 24.20Z TIME FRAME. WILL COVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VCSH...BUT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING...MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IA/
SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AT KRST LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WHEREAS KLSE MAY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN 24.18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM MIST IN THE 2 TO
5 SM RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
5 TO 15 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 241740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE ENDING TODAY AS IMPACT FROM
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO BE FELT ACROSS
CORNBELT AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE TIMING
OF RAIN OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ALONG WITH LOWER RISK OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND BASE AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN GENERATING WIDE SPREAD
CONVECTION FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND
LIGHTNING RISK REMAINS WELL SOUTH.

AS LEAD WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...EXPECT RAIN SHIELD TO
CONTINUE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN THREAT TO MATCH TRENDS...WHICH
WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK. MAY TAKE
QUITE AWHILE TO REACH INTERSTATE 94 BATTLING DRIER AIR INITIALLY.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...COULD SEE A BREAK IN RAIN THREAT DURING PART OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WAVE...WHICH APPEARS STRONGER IN
GUIDANCE...FORCES MORE CONVECTION INTO AREA TONIGHT. MAY BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC BUT TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BACK TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. CAPE IS BASICALLY NIL
FOR MUCH OF DAY BUT SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH. THIS COMBINED WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
WILL CERTAINLY AID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS WHERE
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF WAVE COULD BE STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

STILL LOOKING LIKE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO OPEN WAVE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST MORE RAPIDLY ON MEMORIAL DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURS EARLY MONDAY THOUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRONGER WAVE ADVECTS NORTHEAST. MODELS TRACK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AND DRAW WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY INTO AREA WITH MUCH HIGHER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES SETTING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF WE BREAK
INTO SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB QUICK SO DID RAISE A
FEW DEGREES.

INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IT APPEARS WITH AMPLE 0-3KM
SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DETAILS ON ANY
THREAT MAY HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT NEAR REAL-TIME DEPENDING ON HOW
EARLIER CONVECTION INHIBITS SETUP. MARGINAL RISK VIA SPC SEEMS ON
TRACK BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SLIGHT LEVEL
PROBABILITIES ARE ADDED AT SOME POINT.

BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION
ALONG THIS...BRINGING HIGHEST RAIN RISK ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS.

WHILE WE COULD SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN THREAT MID WEEK...MEAN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND PRODUCE RAIN THREATS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE NORTH BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND
PUSHES FRONT THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS IN THE
24.19 TO 24.20Z TIME FRAME. WILL COVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VCSH...BUT EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE ENDING...MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS IA/
SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AT KRST LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WHEREAS KLSE MAY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN 24.18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM MIST IN THE 2 TO
5 SM RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LOOK TO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
5 TO 15 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...ROGERS




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