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000
FXUS63 KARX 290809
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE 29.00Z HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS. IT SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND MAY SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS IT
OUTRUNS THE AVAILABLE CAPE. THE 29.06Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTED
THERE WAS AROUND 250 J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH THIS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE THE THUNDER MAY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WORK NORTHEAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AS THE
29.05Z RAP INDICATES THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND THIS MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PLAN TO START THE
DAY WITH AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN DIMINISH THESE DOWN TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. BOTH THE HRRR AND 29.00Z HI-RES ARW SUGGEST MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE RAIN FREE FOR A SHORT WHILE LATE THIS
MORNING.

THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 29.00Z NAM SUGGEST THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME COUPLED JET DYNAMICS FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MAIN JET CORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SECONDARY JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE CAPE WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF
1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE
AS IT IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WHEN THESE MAY
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. NONE THE LESS...EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND WILL PUSH THE RAIN CHANCES BACK UP INTO THE 70 TO 80
PERCENT RANGE BY EVENING WHEN THE FORCING IS THE BEST. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. IF THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS CAN BE REALIZED...THEN THERE COULD SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG WINDS.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR A DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING
WILL THEN QUICKLY BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE 29.00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER WHILE THE 29.00Z GEM SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE PV
ADVECTION. ALL THREE MODELS DO SHOW THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WILL SHOW 60 TO 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST AND 30 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS THE SAME...THE MONDAY RAIN CHANCES MAY HAVE TO BE
INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE CHANCES...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW 500-1000 J/KG
OF ML CAPE PERSISTING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD IMPACT KRST AND KLSE
BETWEEN 29.08 AND 29.14Z. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ONLY TO SLOWLY LIFT
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT USING TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL BETTER
TIMING/COVERAGE CERTAINTY IS ACHIEVED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING THREATS AS THE RAIN THURSDAY
DID NOT TURN OUT TO BE AS HEAVY AS EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH AS THE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL IN PLACE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
3.5 TO 4 KM WHICH WILL HELP TO MAKE THE CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 290809
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND THE 29.00Z HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS. IT SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND MAY SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AS IT
OUTRUNS THE AVAILABLE CAPE. THE 29.06Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTED
THERE WAS AROUND 250 J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH THIS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WHILE THE THUNDER MAY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WORK NORTHEAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AS THE
29.05Z RAP INDICATES THE ACTIVITY IS ON THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND THIS MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PLAN TO START THE
DAY WITH AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN DIMINISH THESE DOWN TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. BOTH THE HRRR AND 29.00Z HI-RES ARW SUGGEST MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE RAIN FREE FOR A SHORT WHILE LATE THIS
MORNING.

THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 29.00Z NAM SUGGEST THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME COUPLED JET DYNAMICS FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MAIN JET CORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SECONDARY JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE CAPE WILL INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF
1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE
AS IT IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WHEN THESE MAY
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. NONE THE LESS...EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND WILL PUSH THE RAIN CHANCES BACK UP INTO THE 70 TO 80
PERCENT RANGE BY EVENING WHEN THE FORCING IS THE BEST. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA. IF THE CAPE ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS CAN BE REALIZED...THEN THERE COULD SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG WINDS.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR A DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGING
WILL THEN QUICKLY BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE 29.00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER WHILE THE 29.00Z GEM SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE PV
ADVECTION. ALL THREE MODELS DO SHOW THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WILL SHOW 60 TO 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST AND 30 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS THE SAME...THE MONDAY RAIN CHANCES MAY HAVE TO BE
INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE CHANCES...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW 500-1000 J/KG
OF ML CAPE PERSISTING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD IMPACT KRST AND KLSE
BETWEEN 29.08 AND 29.14Z. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ONLY TO SLOWLY LIFT
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT USING TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL BETTER
TIMING/COVERAGE CERTAINTY IS ACHIEVED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK THIS MORNING. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING THREATS AS THE RAIN THURSDAY
DID NOT TURN OUT TO BE AS HEAVY AS EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH AS THE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL IN PLACE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
3.5 TO 4 KM WHICH WILL HELP TO MAKE THE CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 290440
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD IMPACT KRST AND KLSE
BETWEEN 29.08 AND 29.14Z. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ONLY TO SLOWLY LIFT
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT USING TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL BETTER
TIMING/COVERAGE CERTAINTY IS ACHIEVED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT





000
FXUS63 KARX 290440
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SHOULD IMPACT KRST AND KLSE
BETWEEN 29.08 AND 29.14Z. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ONLY TO SLOWLY LIFT
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT USING TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL BETTER
TIMING/COVERAGE CERTAINTY IS ACHIEVED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 282337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 1SM FROM KSYN TO KVOK
AT 28.2330Z WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...IMPACTING BOTH
TAF AIRFIELDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TAPERING
OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 29.06Z ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 2000 FT AGL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE THROUGH 29.18Z. WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT TOMORROW ON WHETHER
ANY CLEARING OCCURS ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS...ADDED 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 282337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 1SM FROM KSYN TO KVOK
AT 28.2330Z WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...IMPACTING BOTH
TAF AIRFIELDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TAPERING
OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 29.06Z ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 2000 FT AGL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLOUD BASES WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE THROUGH 29.18Z. WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT TOMORROW ON WHETHER
ANY CLEARING OCCURS ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS...ADDED 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT





000
FXUS63 KARX 282029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TREND OF CONDITIONS IS DOWNWARD THIS PERIOD AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF FORCING/LIFT SPREAD ACROSS MN/IA/WI WITH IT.
FIRST ROUND OF -RA WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MARKED THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
VFR OR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-SHRA.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR...THUS NOT MUCH FOR TSRA/CB
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF I-35 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...
BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF -RA. THESE LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME PERSISTENT -SHRA. MAY
YET NEED A PERIOD OR 2 OF TSRA AT EITHER KRST OR KLSE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND DID NOT
WANT TO PUT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ZT





000
FXUS63 KARX 282029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONE SUCH WAVE IS BRINGING THE SHIELD OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS NOTED
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ONE...ALONG WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH...WILL BE OUR PLAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEPT FLOW
OF DRIER AIR...LIMITING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN SHIELD. A LOT
OF THE MOISTURE WENT INTO SATURATION...AND COMBINED WITH THE
WEAKENING LLJ MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL DID NOT MATERIALIZE. WITH THAT SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND RECENT 1-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH...WITH SOME
ISOLATED 0.3-0.5 AMOUNTS.

VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS KEEPING
ACTIVITY AS SHOWERS/RAIN. WENT AHEAD AND LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES
TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
MN/WI AREAS. IT WILL BE MORE STEADY RAINFALL. AS THE CURRENT
SHIELD OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE BACK EDGES TO FILL
IN SOME KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVES...WITH CONFLICTING
STRENGTH IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE FOCUS...LENDS A BIT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL. WHAT HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BETTER PRIMED FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NO CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT PWATS ARE
HIGH...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ABOVE 4 KM...AND THERE IS A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

PERUSAL OF 28.12Z MODELS SHOW SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
SPARK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THIS WOULD LIFT THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EARLY MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING LLJ WEAKENS...THERE SEEMS TO NOT
BE ANOTHER KICKER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
SUCH...THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD END UP
DRIER...AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING IN THE HOURLY
POPS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. FINALLY THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY WILL BE FELT...AND WITH A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW...THE LACK OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY DAMPENS THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN TEMPERED A BIT...AND ARE MORE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A LOT OF THE AREA CAN TAKE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL.
OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FEEL THE
OVERALL THREAT IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE THINKING IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS CENTERED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPROACHING...AND WITH MANY FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...IT
IS THIS PERIOD THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE FOLLOWED THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. 250MB
JET DYNAMICS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...AND THIS JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MUCAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH HEALTHY PROFILES AS NCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 0.15. THIS IS AIDED BY 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5C/KM. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MUDDLED BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 KTS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW SOME CURVATURE BUT A LOT OF THE SHEAR IS
SPEED RELATED. OVERALL...THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
/ WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY AS SUPERCELLS...THEN
MERGE IN LINE SEGMENTS TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA IF MAINTAINED.
THERE ARE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNALS WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE STORM SPEED...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
TIMING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
OVERALL...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SLIDES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG STORMS
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
TREND...THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER.

THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RIPPLES SLIDING THROUGH. NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS TO ADD ANY DETAILS AT THIS
POINT. LOTS OF WEATHER TO GET THROUGH UNTIL THEN. SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TREND OF CONDITIONS IS DOWNWARD THIS PERIOD AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF FORCING/LIFT SPREAD ACROSS MN/IA/WI WITH IT.
FIRST ROUND OF -RA WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MARKED THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
VFR OR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-SHRA.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR...THUS NOT MUCH FOR TSRA/CB
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF I-35 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...
BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF -RA. THESE LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME PERSISTENT -SHRA. MAY
YET NEED A PERIOD OR 2 OF TSRA AT EITHER KRST OR KLSE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND DID NOT
WANT TO PUT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY...OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE SURGE
IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...CHARACTERIZED
BY WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5 TO 4.0 KM...PWATS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND
LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A
BIT AS THE ROUNDS OF STORMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND MUCH OF
THE AREA CAN HANDLE THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFARX/

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 281725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TREND OF CONDITIONS IS DOWNWARD THIS PERIOD AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF FORCING/LIFT SPREAD ACROSS MN/IA/WI WITH IT.
FIRST ROUND OF -RA WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MARKED THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
VFR OR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-SHRA.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR...THUS NOT MUCH FOR TSRA/CB
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF I-35 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...
BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF -RA. THESE LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME PERSISTENT -SHRA. MAY
YET NEED A PERIOD OR 2 OF TSRA AT EITHER KRST OR KLSE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND DID NOT
WANT TO PUT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 281725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TREND OF CONDITIONS IS DOWNWARD THIS PERIOD AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF FORCING/LIFT SPREAD ACROSS MN/IA/WI WITH IT.
FIRST ROUND OF -RA WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MARKED THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER
VFR OR MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-SHRA.
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR...THUS NOT MUCH FOR TSRA/CB
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF I-35 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...
BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF -RA. THESE LOW CLOUDS/CIGS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME PERSISTENT -SHRA. MAY
YET NEED A PERIOD OR 2 OF TSRA AT EITHER KRST OR KLSE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND DID NOT
WANT TO PUT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 281119
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
619 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TOUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALL EYES FOCUSED ON APPROACHING MCV/SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA. LOOKING FOR ARRIVAL AT TAF LOCATIONS 15-17Z
TIMEFRAME. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SO THUNDER CHANCE IS VERY LIMITED. AS DAYTIME HEATING
WORKS ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY THAT MIGHT
LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS.
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BUT MODELS INSIST IN LOW STRATUS WITH A SATURATED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE TAF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 281119
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
619 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TOUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALL EYES FOCUSED ON APPROACHING MCV/SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA. LOOKING FOR ARRIVAL AT TAF LOCATIONS 15-17Z
TIMEFRAME. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE SO THUNDER CHANCE IS VERY LIMITED. AS DAYTIME HEATING
WORKS ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY THAT MIGHT
LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS.
LOOKS LIKE A SMALL LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BUT MODELS INSIST IN LOW STRATUS WITH A SATURATED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE TAF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 280849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TOUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABALE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

28.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED ON THE TREND OF SLOWING
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO DELAYED
-SHRA ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...IMPACTING KRST BY 28.15Z AND KLSE BY
28.17Z. SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL DOMINATE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY VARIABLE OR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 280849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LIKE THE 27.18Z MODELS...THE 28.00Z
MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT BRINGING THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS TRANSPORT DOES NOT MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA UNTIL MID MORNING AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING A BIT SLOWER AT EJECTING OUR OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DUE TO THIS...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND KEPT WESTERN WISCONSIN DRY THIS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKING THE STRONGEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD....AND THEN SLOWLY LOWERED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS WILL BE UP TO 4.5 KM. AS RESULT...WE WILL HAVE GOOD WARM
CLOUD LAYER COALESCENCE PROCESS GOING ON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO LOWERED
THEIR CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS. THIS IS A GOOD
THING...BECAUSE WE SEE FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

ON FRIDAY...THE AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...ML CAPES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 2 TO 3K RANGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH CHANCES LOOK TO
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE AREA HAS MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOWER SHEAR
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE ABOUT 1 KM LOWER /AROUND
3.5 KM/ THAN TODAY...THUS...THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WHICH DO NOT SEE THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TOUGH ALSO PICKS UP A TUTT
/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH/ LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
REGION OF THE 200 MB JET...THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKE FRIDAY...PRECIPITABALE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
BE AROUND 3.5 KM. BOTH OF THESE ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE SOME PLACES WHICH SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO THIS TIMING...THE
ML CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1200 J/KG. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. DUE TO THIS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO MAKE SURE THIS DOES NOT CHANGE. ALSO
WITH THIS TIMING...WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

28.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED ON THE TREND OF SLOWING
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO DELAYED
-SHRA ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...IMPACTING KRST BY 28.15Z AND KLSE BY
28.17Z. SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL DOMINATE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY VARIABLE OR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS DEPTHS LOOK TO BE
LOWER FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN A BIT. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND IT WILL
PERIODIC...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THE ESF GOING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 280436
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

28.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED ON THE TREND OF SLOWING
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO DELAYED
-SHRA ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...IMPACTING KRST BY 28.15Z AND KLSE BY
28.17Z. SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL DOMINATE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY VARIABLE OR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 280436
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

28.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED ON THE TREND OF SLOWING
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO DELAYED
-SHRA ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...IMPACTING KRST BY 28.15Z AND KLSE BY
28.17Z. SHOWERS (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL DOMINATE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...SO WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPO GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY EXPECTED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY VARIABLE OR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 272342
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
642 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

27.18Z FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS DELAYED ONSET
OF -SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH SITES BY A COUPLE HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT WIND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL PREFERENCE.
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
DIPPING AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 272342
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
642 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

27.18Z FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS DELAYED ONSET
OF -SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH SITES BY A COUPLE HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING. STILL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT WIND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL PREFERENCE.
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL LOWER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
DIPPING AT TIMES INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 272028
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITION EXPECT THRU THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER/DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE KRST AREA
TOWARD MORNING AND THE KLSE AREA AROUND MID MORNING THU. INSTABILITY
IS INITIALLY LIMITED...WITH MAINLY -SHRA EXPECTED WHEN THE PRECIP
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERCOME...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIP FIRST ARRIVES. WITH
INCREASING LIFT/INSTABILITY THRU THU MORNING...TSRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SHRA/RAIN AREA. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
AT KRST AFTER 13Z AND KLSE AFTER 16Z...HOWEVER TSRA THU MORNING MAY
BE MORE OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER VS. MORE TYPICAL JULY/AUG
CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED RAIN THU MORNING AND SATURATION OF THE
LOWER LEVELS...CIGS/VSBYS AT KRST TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AFTER
15Z...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REACH KLSE NEAR/AFTER
18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA THEN LOOK TO PERSIST THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 272028
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED DECAYING DISTURBANCE ACROSS IOWA...WITH MAIN
CLOSED LOW ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WEAK IMPULSES WERE
RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...AND IT IS THESE IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE THE PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...KEEPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE 65F
DEWPOINT LINE IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THE LARGEST CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN RELATED TO
PRECIPITATION TIMING...AS 27.12Z MODEL CYCLES TREND TOWARD A LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE GREATEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING
NORTHEAST IOWA / SOUTHEAST NOT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /4 TO
6 AM/ THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH SO KEPT 90 TO 100 CHANCES.

THE NOSE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...SO ANY COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 4 KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
STORM TOP WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THOUGH WITH BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL...AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCES. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL OUTCOME IN ROUND
ONE...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR REPEATED ROUNDS.
THOUGH AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE
ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THOSE PLANNING ACTIVITIES THIS
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE DRIER PERIODS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 27.12Z MODELS ALREADY SHOW
THIS FEATURE TO BE A BIT VIGOROUS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK LIMITED RIGHT
NOW GIVEN TIMING BUT 500 TO 1000 MUCAPE TRANSLATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES /20 KTS/. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITION EXPECT THRU THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER/DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE KRST AREA
TOWARD MORNING AND THE KLSE AREA AROUND MID MORNING THU. INSTABILITY
IS INITIALLY LIMITED...WITH MAINLY -SHRA EXPECTED WHEN THE PRECIP
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERCOME...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIP FIRST ARRIVES. WITH
INCREASING LIFT/INSTABILITY THRU THU MORNING...TSRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SHRA/RAIN AREA. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
AT KRST AFTER 13Z AND KLSE AFTER 16Z...HOWEVER TSRA THU MORNING MAY
BE MORE OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER VS. MORE TYPICAL JULY/AUG
CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED RAIN THU MORNING AND SATURATION OF THE
LOWER LEVELS...CIGS/VSBYS AT KRST TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AFTER
15Z...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REACH KLSE NEAR/AFTER
18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA THEN LOOK TO PERSIST THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M
/IF NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWATS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN SIGNALS ARE PROGRESSIVE...THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. FOR ROUND TWO...THE HIGHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS
MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T
GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL
SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL MAINTAIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
SIGNALS ARE FOR THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO REPEAT OVER
THE SAME AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....ZT/RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 271730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...IN CONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITION EXPECT THRU THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER/DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE KRST AREA
TOWARD MORNING AND THE KLSE AREA AROUND MID MORNING THU. INSTABILITY
IS INITIALLY LIMITED...WITH MAINLY -SHRA EXPECTED WHEN THE PRECIP
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERCOME...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIP FIRST ARRIVES. WITH
INCREASING LIFT/INSTABILITY THRU THU MORNING...TSRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SHRA/RAIN AREA. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
AT KRST AFTER 13Z AND KLSE AFTER 16Z...HOWEVER TSRA THU MORNING MAY
BE MORE OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER VS. MORE TYPICAL JULY/AUG
CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED RAIN THU MORNING AND SATURATION OF THE
LOWER LEVELS...CIGS/VSBYS AT KRST TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AFTER
15Z...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REACH KLSE NEAR/AFTER
18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA THEN LOOK TO PERSIST THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 271730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...IN CONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITION EXPECT THRU THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COOLER/DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT SPREAD
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE KRST AREA
TOWARD MORNING AND THE KLSE AREA AROUND MID MORNING THU. INSTABILITY
IS INITIALLY LIMITED...WITH MAINLY -SHRA EXPECTED WHEN THE PRECIP
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERCOME...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIP FIRST ARRIVES. WITH
INCREASING LIFT/INSTABILITY THRU THU MORNING...TSRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SHRA/RAIN AREA. INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
AT KRST AFTER 13Z AND KLSE AFTER 16Z...HOWEVER TSRA THU MORNING MAY
BE MORE OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER VS. MORE TYPICAL JULY/AUG
CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED RAIN THU MORNING AND SATURATION OF THE
LOWER LEVELS...CIGS/VSBYS AT KRST TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AFTER
15Z...WITH THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LOOKING TO REACH KLSE NEAR/AFTER
18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA THEN LOOK TO PERSIST THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERE IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 271202
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
702 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...INCONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 6-8K DECK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY
27.16Z. SKIES THEN WILL BE VFR THROUGH 28.08Z...AND THEN LOWER
INTO 4-8K RANGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 28.10Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERES IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 271202
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
702 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...INCONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 6-8K DECK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES BY
27.16Z. SKIES THEN WILL BE VFR THROUGH 28.08Z...AND THEN LOWER
INTO 4-8K RANGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 28.10Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERES IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 270757
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...INCONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH 28.06Z WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SLOWLY TURNING
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS
THE FORMATION OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERES IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 270757
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPARKING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIP
QUICKLY EAST...ALREADY MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY 15Z. LOCATIONS
MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LINGERING SFC
FRONT SITS WELL SOUTH...ACROSS NORTHERN MO...AND WON/T BE A FACTOR
FOR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. THUS...EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR
MOST /POST THE SHORTWAVE/.

MCS FINALLY FIRING UP OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION STICK WITH
IT. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN
LIKELY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPPI RIVER TOWARD 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SOGGY END TO THE WORK WEEK...A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS HAVE VARIED HERE AND THERE.
ONE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME MAKING IT TO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRI.

MAIN POINTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN...

1) SURFACE FRONT. THIS REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIE. CURRENTLY IT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MO
INTO CENTRAL ILL. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON THU AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ORIGINALLY THE
THOUGHT WAS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WOULD CLEAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...GETTING A SHOVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL
TRENDS BRING THE TROUGH IN SLOWER...AND WOULD LINGER THE FRONT INTO
FRIDAY...PROBABLY INTO SAT.

2) SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED ON THIS FEATURE...HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING IT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING IT
EAST/NORTHEAST BY SUN MORNING.

3) LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN THE MAIN KICKER FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. IT SHOULD SERVE TO FIRE OFF AN MCS IN THE NEB/WESTERN IA
REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INSTEAD OF WANING DURING THE
DAY...TURN ITS ATTENTION ON THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT JET NOSING IN BY 18Z THU.
THIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY.

4) WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE 18Z THU - 06Z FRI TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE PUSH. WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME.

5) INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR. NEITHER LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONTRIBUTIONS TO STORM THREATS INTO THE WEEKEND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO RELATIVELY MEAGER...ELEVATED...SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE DEEPER WIND SHEAR TENDS TO BE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...IN THE COLDER AIR. THERE IS SOME
OVERLAP ON THU...BUT THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST.

SO...TOSSING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO A HAT WE END UP PULLING OUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REGION THU-FRI...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO SAT.

LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THE
PLAINS/S MCS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THU...HELPING IT TRACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOSSED OUT
OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTION...AS WILL THE SFC FRONT.
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MCS - ACROSS EASTERN IA -THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY
DOESN/T SPIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY SAT. IT WILL HELP
KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS...INCONCERT WITH THE STILL
LINGERING SFC FRONT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING
SHAPING UP TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON SHORTWAVE SPEED.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. MORE ON THIS TREAT IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH 28.06Z WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SLOWLY TURNING
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS
THE FORMATION OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EFFICIENT...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4000 M /IF
NOT HIGHER/ WHILE PWS PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES THU-THU NIGHT. WHAT
INSTABILITY THERES IS WILL LIKELY GO INTO RAIN PRODUCTION RATHER
THAN HAIL POTENTIAL. SHOWER/STORM TRACKS LOOK MORE WEST-EAST THU-THU
NIGHT...LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS. ORIENTATION MIGHT BE MORE
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATER FRI INTO SAT. RUN TOTAL QPF FROM THE
EC/GFS/GEM THROUGH SAT RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM LIKELY. THAT SAID...THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN
REGION FOR THU LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE ONE FRI-SAT...WHICH HELPS
DECREASE THE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER RISE POTENTIAL. 3 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY 2.5-3 INCHES. AT THIS MOMENT...THINK THERE COULD BE QUICK
RISES ON SOME RIVERS...BUT SHOULD STAY WITHIN BANK. AS ALONG AS
STORMS MOVE...AND AREAS DON/T GET REPEATED HITS...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS REDUCED. ALL SAID...WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS. MIGHT NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN REGIONS THU-SAT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL OVERLAP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 270438
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 28.06Z WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 270438
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 28.06Z WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF AIRFIELDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 262338
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 28.00Z WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH A
DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF FOG
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 262338
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 28.00Z WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH A
DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF FOG
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 262003
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FOTM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT/WED MORNING. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SCT CIRRUS. SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THESE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT PLUS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING BR/FG TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 262003
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TWO POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL COME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 26.12Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRCX SHOWS SOME
DECENT LIFT ABOVE 700 MB FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THIS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
COULD BE A SHORT 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SATURATION OF THIS DRIER
AIR COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AND
WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS FEATURE.

THE SECOND AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST...THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL START TO RETURN NORTH WITH THE 26.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTING IT REACHES THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FOTM. AS
THIS MOVES EAST...THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MCS COULD BRUSH THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER RIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING
THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS...WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING MOST AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN START TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND HAVE RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WORK
THIS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ONCE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT/WED MORNING. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SCT CIRRUS. SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THESE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT PLUS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING BR/FG TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 4 KM...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING
THESE COULD BE AS DEEP AS 4.5 KM. THIS WOULD MAKE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS THE AREA THE FOR
THE MOST PART HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY DECENT RAINS LATELY. THE FOCUS
FOR THE RAIN THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
DISCOUNTING THE NEED TO LATER ISSUE AN ESF OR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES BASED ON QPF FORECASTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH PARTS OF THE WESTERN AREA NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
THE RUNOFF FROM THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IN-BANK RISES AND WITH THIS
COMING OVER A SPREAD OUT TIME PERIOD...FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 261718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

850-700MB NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING FIRE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE RAP13 THAT
WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG 900 MB LIES ACROSS
THIS REGION TOO. THIS WEAKENS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 3 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A 700 TO 500 MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAS DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB JET.

FOR TODAY...THE 26.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 900
TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE 700 TO 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE MCS WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS MORNING
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COLORADO/ OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES
NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED
DOWN THE INCREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTED THEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ONE THING THAT IS
A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ARW...NMM...AND NESTED NAM
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVEN SLOWER AND THAT THE
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FORCING IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE 700 TO 500 MB FORCING
LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THUS JUST INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 26.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THIS TRANSPORT IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT KEPT A 20 TO
30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THAT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THESE ARE INCREASING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS 0-3 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER ITS ML CAPES ARE LESS THAN 1K J/KG. IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DID OCCUR...IT WOULD BE LIKELY ISOLATED. MEANWHILE
THE NAM HAS ML CAPES WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLIMBING INTO THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SUPER CELLS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE CERTAIN DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. WE MAY HAVE ISSUES OF FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS REPETITIVELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT/WED MORNING. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SCT CIRRUS. SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THESE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT PLUS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING BR/FG TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE 26.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
WILL CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. THIS WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS. HPC/S 24 HOUR QPF FROM 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS SEEMS VERY FEASIBLE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATED......RIECK
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

850-700MB NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING FIRE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE RAP13 THAT
WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG 900 MB LIES ACROSS
THIS REGION TOO. THIS WEAKENS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 3 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A 700 TO 500 MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAS DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB JET.

FOR TODAY...THE 26.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 900
TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE 700 TO 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE MCS WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS MORNING
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COLORADO/ OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES
NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED
DOWN THE INCREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTED THEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ONE THING THAT IS
A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ARW...NMM...AND NESTED NAM
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVEN SLOWER AND THAT THE
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FORCING IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE 700 TO 500 MB FORCING
LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THUS JUST INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 26.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THIS TRANSPORT IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT KEPT A 20 TO
30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THAT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THESE ARE INCREASING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS 0-3 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER ITS ML CAPES ARE LESS THAN 1K J/KG. IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DID OCCUR...IT WOULD BE LIKELY ISOLATED. MEANWHILE
THE NAM HAS ML CAPES WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLIMBING INTO THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SUPER CELLS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE CERTAIN DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. WE MAY HAVE ISSUES OF FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS REPETITIVELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A QUIET TAF PERIOD AS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THRU TONIGHT/WED MORNING. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SCT CIRRUS. SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE/DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THESE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT PLUS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING BR/FG TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE 26.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
WILL CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. THIS WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS. HPC/S 24 HOUR QPF FROM 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS SEEMS VERY FEASIBLE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATED......RIECK
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 261044
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

850-700MB NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING FIRE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE RAP13 THAT
WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG 900 MB LIES ACROSS
THIS REGION TOO. THIS WEAKENS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 3 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A 700 TO 500 MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAS DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB JET.

FOR TODAY...THE 26.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 900
TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE 700 TO 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE MCS WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS MORNING
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COLORADO/ OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES
NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED
DOWN THE INCREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTED THEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ONE THING THAT IS
A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ARW...NMM...AND NESTED NAM
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVEN SLOWER AND THAT THE
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FORCING IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE 700 TO 500 MB FORCING
LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THUS JUST INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 26.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THIS TRANSPORT IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT KEPT A 20 TO
30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THAT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THESE ARE INCREASING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS 0-3 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER ITS ML CAPES ARE LESS THAN 1K J/KG. IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DID OCCUR...IT WOULD BE LIKELY ISOLATED. MEANWHILE
THE NAM HAS ML CAPES WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLIMBING INTO THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SUPER CELLS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE CERTAIN DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. WE MAY HAVE ISSUES OF FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS REPETITIVELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS HERE
AND THERE. CHALLENGES CREEP UP LATER TONIGHT ON WHETHER TO INCLUDE
SHRA/TS INTO THE FORECAST. WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/ILL...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN
PRODUCTION. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACTION WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL FIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER IA
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING STAYING THERE. GFS/EC/NAM
HINT THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD WORK TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR...THUS
IMPACTING KRST/KLSE. HOWEVER...MESO MODELS ARW/NMM/SPC WRF THINK IT
WILL STAY SOUTH. GOING TO TREND THE FORECAST TO DRY FOR
NOW...LETTING LATER MODEL RUNS CLARIFY ANY POTENTIAL THREAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE 26.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
WILL CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. THIS WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS. HPC/S 24 HOUR QPF FROM 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS SEEMS VERY FEASIBLE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATED......RIECK
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261044
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

850-700MB NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING FIRE A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE RAP13 THAT
WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG 900 MB LIES ACROSS
THIS REGION TOO. THIS WEAKENS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AT 3 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A 700 TO 500 MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAS DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB JET.

FOR TODAY...THE 26.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 900
TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE 700 TO 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE MCS WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS MORNING
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COLORADO/ OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOES
NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED
DOWN THE INCREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTED THEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ONE THING THAT IS
A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THAT BOTH THE ARW...NMM...AND NESTED NAM
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVEN SLOWER AND THAT THE
STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FORCING IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE 700 TO 500 MB FORCING
LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THUS JUST INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 26.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WEAK 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THIS TRANSPORT IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT KEPT A 20 TO
30 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THAT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THESE ARE INCREASING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS 0-3 KM SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER ITS ML CAPES ARE LESS THAN 1K J/KG. IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DID OCCUR...IT WOULD BE LIKELY ISOLATED. MEANWHILE
THE NAM HAS ML CAPES WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLIMBING INTO THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SUPER CELLS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE CERTAIN DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL
CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. WE MAY HAVE ISSUES OF FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND
IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS REPETITIVELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS HERE
AND THERE. CHALLENGES CREEP UP LATER TONIGHT ON WHETHER TO INCLUDE
SHRA/TS INTO THE FORECAST. WEST-EAST RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/ILL...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN
PRODUCTION. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACTION WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL FIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER IA
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING STAYING THERE. GFS/EC/NAM
HINT THAT SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD WORK TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR...THUS
IMPACTING KRST/KLSE. HOWEVER...MESO MODELS ARW/NMM/SPC WRF THINK IT
WILL STAY SOUTH. GOING TO TREND THE FORECAST TO DRY FOR
NOW...LETTING LATER MODEL RUNS CLARIFY ANY POTENTIAL THREAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE 26.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
WILL CLIMB TO 4.5 KM. THIS WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS. HPC/S 24 HOUR QPF FROM 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS SEEMS VERY FEASIBLE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATED......RIECK
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





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