000
FXUS63 KARX 231755
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXCEPT FOR
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....SHEA
000
FXUS63 KARX 231121
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTHEAST
HAVING CLEARED KRST ALREADY. THEY WILL BE PAST KLSE SHORTLY AS
WELL...BUT COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD AROUND
12Z...BUT THIS WILL BE TOO SHORT TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR AND WILL
JUST CARRY A SCATTERED DECK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE GRADIENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE INCOMING HIGH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
RELAX THE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
000
FXUS63 KARX 230758
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END ALONG WITH THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOWN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH. WHERE
THE RAIN ENDS IS WHERE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 6Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STAY UP IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 230446
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.
AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END ALONG WITH THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOWN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH. WHERE
THE RAIN ENDS IS WHERE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 6Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STAY UP IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.
AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LIGHT RAIN AND LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SOME CLEARING MOVES IN
AFTER 7Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AT LSE THAN
RST BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR AT 800FT TO 1500FT UNTIL THE DRIER AIR CAN MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 3SM IN SOME OF
THE SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 6SM. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 221955
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.
AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IA WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AND
MOVE EAST INTO LOWER MI BY MORNING. PLAN ON IFR/MVFR CLOUD
COVER AND BAND OF SHRA NORTH OF THE LOW TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
THEN LOOK FOR FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CATEGORY AROUND
07Z AT KRST AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM..SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION....DAS
000
FXUS63 KARX 221752
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IA WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AND
MOVE EAST INTO LOWER MI BY MORNING. PLAN ON IFR/MVFR CLOUD
COVER AND BAND OF SHRA NORTH OF THE LOW TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
THEN LOOK FOR FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CATEGORY AROUND
07Z AT KRST AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...DAS
000
FXUS63 KARX 221145
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOSED CIRCULATION TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION
AREA ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY. BROAD WEAK LIFT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING...IN AT LEAST HIT-AND-
MISS FASHION...FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. ALSO OF CONCERN ARE LOW
CLOUDS. IFR IS NOT FAR AWAY AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
REGION...FIRST AT KRST...AND FINALLY AT KLSE. THE PERSISTANT LOW
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART ON THURSDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...MW
000
FXUS63 KARX 220809
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION BUT IS STARTING TO SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OF THE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS IN DOUBT...BUT RST SHOULD SEE
SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR POSSIBLE INTO
LSE AROUND THE SAME TIME. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION.......HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 220431
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACT FOR THE
CENTRAL US. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER...FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...
MAY HAVE SOME LIMITED FROST /YES...FROST/ TO DEAL WITH LATE IN THE
WEEK.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO FORM
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE CREATING SOME MLCAPE. LOWER DEW POINTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE COOL CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO WRAPPING AROUND
LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIELD.
WOULD THINK HIGHEST RISK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AHEAD OF LOW...
BUT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...OVERALL RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AREA WIDE. HAVE EVEN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND WESTERLIES MOVE IT EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALES MISS THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR PROMISED COOLER AND DRIER DAY
ON THURSDAY...EVEN AS SUNSHINE PREVAILS. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SETUP A BRIEF FROST THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN /FAVORED COOLER SPOTS/ WHERE LOWS COULD REACH
MID 30S.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING WARM FRONT RETURN BY END OF
THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT FAR OUT WITH TREND TO BUILD MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID-SECTION THROUGH WEEKEND. SHOULD ALSO BE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOTS OF ATTENTION ON HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS. LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS KEEP DRIER REGIME WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREATS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF WESTERN US TROUGH COMES IN. GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THREAT FOR
RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE INTO
ALL DAY RAINS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES TREND DRIER AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN THREATS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT WORST
WITH A HIGHER THREAT ACROSS IOWA AND LOWER CHANCES INTO NORTH OR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION BUT IS STARTING TO SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OF THE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS IN DOUBT...BUT RST SHOULD SEE
SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR POSSIBLE INTO
LSE AROUND THE SAME TIME. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 212332
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACT FOR THE
CENTRAL US. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER...FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...
MAY HAVE SOME LIMITED FROST /YES...FROST/ TO DEAL WITH LATE IN THE
WEEK.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO FORM
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE CREATING SOME MLCAPE. LOWER DEW POINTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE COOL CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO WRAPPING AROUND
LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIELD.
WOULD THINK HIGHEST RISK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AHEAD OF LOW...
BUT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...OVERALL RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AREA WIDE. HAVE EVEN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND WESTERLIES MOVE IT EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALES MISS THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR PROMISED COOLER AND DRIER DAY
ON THURSDAY...EVEN AS SUNSHINE PREVAILS. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SETUP A BRIEF FROST THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN /FAVORED COOLER SPOTS/ WHERE LOWS COULD REACH
MID 30S.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING WARM FRONT RETURN BY END OF
THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT FAR OUT WITH TREND TO BUILD MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID-SECTION THROUGH WEEKEND. SHOULD ALSO BE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOTS OF ATTENTION ON HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS. LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS KEEP DRIER REGIME WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREATS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF WESTERN US TROUGH COMES IN. GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THREAT FOR
RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE INTO
ALL DAY RAINS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES TREND DRIER AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN THREATS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT WORST
WITH A HIGHER THREAT ACROSS IOWA AND LOWER CHANCES INTO NORTH OR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS KRST/KLSE
REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST MN. AS THE
CORE OF LOW MOVES EAST...A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME VARIABLE...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINS WOULD SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL AT KRST...BUT
DEPENDING HOW EXPANSIVE THE EVENING CLOUD DECK IS...MAY END UP
MORE OF A STRATUS ISSUE THAN FOG. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR FOG AT
KRST IS BELOW AVERAGE. FOR NOW...THINKING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS IS WHEN MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS AT KRST WILL
OCCUR...AND MVFR AT KLSE. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...ZT
000
FXUS63 KARX 211933
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACT FOR THE
CENTRAL US. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER...FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...
MAY HAVE SOME LIMITED FROST /YES...FROST/ TO DEAL WITH LATE IN THE
WEEK.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO FORM
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE CREATING SOME MLCAPE. LOWER DEW POINTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE COOL CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO WRAPPING AROUND
LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIELD.
WOULD THINK HIGHEST RISK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AHEAD OF LOW...
BUT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...OVERALL RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AREA WIDE. HAVE EVEN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND WESTERLIES MOVE IT EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALES MISS THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR PROMISED COOLER AND DRIER DAY
ON THURSDAY...EVEN AS SUNSHINE PREVAILS. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SETUP A BRIEF FROST THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN /FAVORED COOLER SPOTS/ WHERE LOWS COULD REACH
MID 30S.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING WARM FRONT RETURN BY END OF
THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT FAR OUT WITH TREND TO BUILD MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID-SECTION THROUGH WEEKEND. SHOULD ALSO BE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LOTS OF ATTENTION ON HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS. LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS KEEP DRIER REGIME WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREATS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF WESTERN US TROUGH COMES IN. GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THREAT FOR
RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE INTO
ALL DAY RAINS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES TREND DRIER AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN THREATS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT WORST
WITH A HIGHER THREAT ACROSS IOWA AND LOWER CHANCES INTO NORTH OR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR AT KRST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON CEILINGS IN THE
1500 TO 3000 FT RANGE TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO AROUND 4SM AT
KLSE AND TO AROUND 5SM AT KRST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO 700
FT AT KRST BY 13Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
000
FXUS63 KARX 211745
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AT 345 AM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KNOT
250 MB JET. THE 21.00Z MESO MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
FOR TODAY...THE MESO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK TO
MODERATE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...THE ML CAPE WILL BE
CLIMBING UP TO 500 J/KG FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS 25 KNOTS...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
EVENTUALLY EVOLVED INTO A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RUN FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
DEW POINTS OF AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS REGION.
THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME LOWER 30S IN THE CRANBERRY BOGS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK TO
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.2
INCHES...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS COMPLEX. WHILE THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAIN LESS THAN
30 KNOTS...THE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A
WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE LOCATION OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE GFS...CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HIGH MORE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS KEEPS US IN THE ACTIVE AREA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE...DECIDED TO JUST STAY WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR AT KRST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON CEILINGS IN THE
1500 TO 3000 FT RANGE TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO AROUND 4SM AT
KLSE AND TO AROUND 5SM AT KRST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO 700
FT AT KRST BY 13Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY JUST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA. LIKE WEDNESDAY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOW THE FALL ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
000
FXUS63 KARX 211204
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
704 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AT 345 AM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KNOT
250 MB JET. THE 21.00Z MESO MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
FOR TODAY...THE MESO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK TO
MODERATE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...THE ML CAPE WILL BE
CLIMBING UP TO 500 J/KG FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS 25 KNOTS...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
EVENTUALLY EVOLVED INTO A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RUN FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
DEW POINTS OF AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS REGION.
THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME LOWER 30S IN THE CRANBERRY BOGS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK TO
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.2
INCHES...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS COMPLEX. WHILE THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAIN LESS THAN
30 KNOTS...THE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A
WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE LOCATION OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE GFS...CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HIGH MORE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS KEEPS US IN THE ACTIVE AREA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE...DECIDED TO JUST STAY WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
704 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
CENTER OF CLOSED SYSTEM NEAR WATERTOWN SD AND STARTING TO MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PUSH. ROTATION AROUND THE SYSTEM SENDING BANDS OF
CLOUD INTO THE TAF SITES. SOME OF IT IS MID CLOUD BUT ALSO SOME
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE 15-30KFT RANGE. ALSO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS NOW
POPPING UP ON RADAR SINCE 1130Z. THESE LOOK TO MISS THE TAF
LOCATIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT IF EXPANSION CONTINUES MAY HAVE
TO AMEND TO ADD. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...BROAD LIFT AND RECENT RAIN...EXPECT SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG
COULD BE AN ISSUE. ADDED MVFR BR TO THE TAFS...SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY JUST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA. LIKE WEDNESDAY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOW THE FALL ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
000
FXUS63 KARX 210900
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AT 345 AM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KNOT
250 MB JET. THE 21.00Z MESO MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
FOR TODAY...THE MESO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK TO
MODERATE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...THE ML CAPE WILL BE
CLIMBING UP TO 500 J/KG FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WITH
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS 25 KNOTS...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE 900-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
EVENTUALLY EVOLVED INTO A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RUN FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
DEW POINTS OF AROUND 30 DEGREES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS REGION.
THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME LOWER 30S IN THE CRANBERRY BOGS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK TO
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.2
INCHES...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS COMPLEX. WHILE THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAIN LESS THAN
30 KNOTS...THE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THAT THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE A
WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE LOCATION OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE GFS...CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HIGH MORE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS KEEPS US IN THE ACTIVE AREA ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE...DECIDED TO JUST STAY WITH THE ALL BLEND FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THE 21.00Z NAM
SHOWS THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE NAM...21.03Z RAP AND HRRR IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. PLAN TO
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IN AT KLSE THROUGH 08Z FOLLOWED BY
VCTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND JUST CARRY A VCTS AT KRST THROUGH 08Z
AS RADAR SHOWS JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
LOTS OF VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SO WILL SHOW
A CEILING AROUND 4K FEET FOR BOTH SITES FOR FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY JUST SLOW THE FALLS ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA. LIKE WEDNESDAY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOW THE FALL ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
000
FXUS63 KARX 210502
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A DEEP 995MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST SD
WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOW INTO CENTRAL
MN/WI. DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA
TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD GROWING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LAPS INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE
ONLY AROUND 500J/KG AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP H3 ANALYSIS SHOWING A JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
KS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
DRYLINE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEB THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP13 SHOWS 0-1KM CAPE INCREASING INTO
THE 1300J/KG BY 03Z ALONG WITH AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT
RANGE. APPEAR STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGHER LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS/LCLS. LOOKING FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
AREA IN DRY SLOT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER WITH NO DEFINITE
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WENT WITH LOWER-END CONVECTION
PROBABILITIES SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH HIGHER POPS NORTHEAST OF THIS.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEFORMATION
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE LOW
TO SLIP EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DEFORMATION
SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE UPPER LOW/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...PLAN ON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SHOWER CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...APPEARS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA. HIGHS COOL TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH READINGS
TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN LAST INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. APPEARS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH DRIER
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN CHANCES GET A LITTLE IFFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE SKIMMING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE THING
LOOKS SURE THOUGH...AND THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S...WARMING SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THE 21.00Z NAM
SHOWS THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE NAM...21.03Z RAP AND HRRR IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z. PLAN TO
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IN AT KLSE THROUGH 08Z FOLLOWED BY
VCTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND JUST CARRY A VCTS AT KRST THROUGH 08Z
AS RADAR SHOWS JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
LOTS OF VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SO WILL SHOW
A CEILING AROUND 4K FEET FOR BOTH SITES FOR FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING BEING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER....HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/A PART OF NORTHEAST
IA. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT FOR RIVER
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROOT RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MN AND THE
CEDAR IN NORTHEAST WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. OTHER
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA FOR RISING WITHIN BANK LEVELS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. DRYING EXPECTED FINALLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
000
FXUS63 KARX 202308
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A DEEP 995MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST SD
WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOW INTO CENTRAL
MN/WI. DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA
TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD GROWING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LAPS INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE
ONLY AROUND 500J/KG AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP H3 ANALYSIS SHOWING A JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
KS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
DRYLINE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEB THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP13 SHOWS 0-1KM CAPE INCREASING INTO
THE 1300J/KG BY 03Z ALONG WITH AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT
RANGE. APPEAR STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGHER LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS/LCLS. LOOKING FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
AREA IN DRY SLOT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER WITH NO DEFINITE
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WENT WITH LOWER-END CONVECTION
PROBABILITIES SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH HIGHER POPS NORTHEAST OF THIS.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEFORMATION
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE LOW
TO SLIP EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DEFORMATION
SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE UPPER LOW/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...PLAN ON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SHOWER CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...APPEARS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA. HIGHS COOL TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH READINGS
TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN LAST INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. APPEARS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH DRIER
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN CHANCES GET A LITTLE IFFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE SKIMMING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE THING
LOOKS SURE THOUGH...AND THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S...WARMING SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY.
SOME ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE 22.21Z HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AROUND 03Z FOR A 3
TO 4 HOUR PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE VCTS IN BOTH
TAFS TO REFLECT THIS NEW TIMING. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES PAST THE
AREA...NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND JUST EXPECTING A VFR CEILING TO BE IN
PLACE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING BEING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER....HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/A PART OF NORTHEAST
IA. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT FOR RIVER
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROOT RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MN AND THE
CEDAR IN NORTHEAST WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. OTHER
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA FOR RISING WITHIN BANK LEVELS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. DRYING EXPECTED FINALLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
000
FXUS63 KARX 202026
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A DEEP 995MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST SD
WITH A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LOW INTO CENTRAL
MN/WI. DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA
TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD GROWING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LAPS INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE
ONLY AROUND 500J/KG AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP H3 ANALYSIS SHOWING A JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
KS TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
DRYLINE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEB THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP13 SHOWS 0-1KM CAPE INCREASING INTO
THE 1300J/KG BY 03Z ALONG WITH AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT
RANGE. APPEAR STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT DUE TO HIGHER LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS/LCLS. LOOKING FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
AREA IN DRY SLOT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER WITH NO DEFINITE
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WENT WITH LOWER-END CONVECTION
PROBABILITIES SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH HIGHER POPS NORTHEAST OF THIS.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT OF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEFORMATION
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE LOW
TO SLIP EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DEFORMATION
SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE UPPER LOW/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...PLAN ON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SHOWER CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...APPEARS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA. HIGHS COOL TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH READINGS
TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN LAST INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IA. APPEARS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF I-94 WITH DRIER
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN CHANCES GET A LITTLE IFFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE SKIMMING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE THING
LOOKS SURE THOUGH...AND THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE 60S...WARMING SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...SOME STRATUS AND CUMULUS
FIELD WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM BRIEF CLEARING...BUT MOST
CEILINGS VFR. WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
STORM OCCLUSION AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE FORM OF LOWER CAPE
VALUES MAY KEEP STORMS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...IN ADDITION
TO A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL KEEP STORMS IN A VICINITY MODE
UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE WORKED IN BUT THREAT SHOULD END BY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANY CAPE DIMINISHES.
GENERALLY A VFR CEILING EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW SPINS AROUND THE AREA
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BUT SOME MVFR TIME IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
STRATUS FIELDS OR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING BEING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER....HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/A PART OF NORTHEAST
IA. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT FOR RIVER
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROOT RIVER IN SOUTHEAST MN AND THE
CEDAR IN NORTHEAST WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. OTHER
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA FOR RISING WITHIN BANK LEVELS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL ACTIVITY. DRYING EXPECTED FINALLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...DAS
| 
