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000
FXUS63 KARX 250400
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 3 PM...RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO EAST OF RED WING
MINNESOTA TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FOUND
EAST OF A MEDFORD TO LANCASTER WISCONSIN LINE. THE ARW...HRRR...
RAP...AND NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 25.09Z. THIS BACK
EDGE CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE 900 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR MUCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OF
THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER MOSTLY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS LIMITED OMEGA IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH THE NAM
HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT
GENERATES PRECIPITATION AS SOON AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM BEING A
BIT TOO HIGH IN ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE LATTER MODELS. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS...THE NAM HAS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IF THE NAM VERIFIED THERE WOULD BE
SOME CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING SUPER
CELLS. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS MAKE MUCH MORE SENSE IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THEREFORE...THE SHEAR IS MUCH TOO STRONG FOR THE CAPE
WHICH IS AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO WITH
TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE PCPN HAS CLEARED EAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS A FEW HOURS BEHIND
IT. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY REACHED KRST...AND EXPECT IT TO DO
THE SAME FOR KLSE AROUND 06Z. WITH SCT/SKC SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AND A SATURATED NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE RECENT
RAINS...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES A CONCERN. LATEST
BUFKIT/NAM12 SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OFF THE
SFC...SUGGESTIVE OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP...ALA
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER. STILL...ENOUGH
FAVORS IT TO CONTINUE BR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE STILL
LOW IN JUST HOW LOW VSBYS COULD GO IN FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...SO WILL
STICK WITH 2-4SM FOR NOW. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SINCE WEDNESDAY...A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO SOME MELTING SNOW UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA...WILL CAUSE WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA RIVERS. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 242304
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 3 PM...RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO EAST OF RED WING
MINNESOTA TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FOUND
EAST OF A MEDFORD TO LANCASTER WISCONSIN LINE. THE ARW...HRRR...
RAP...AND NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 25.09Z. THIS BACK
EDGE CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE 900 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR MUCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OF
THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER MOSTLY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS LIMITED OMEGA IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH THE NAM
HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT
GENERATES PRECIPITATION AS SOON AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM BEING A
BIT TOO HIGH IN ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE LATTER MODELS. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS...THE NAM HAS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IF THE NAM VERIFIED THERE WOULD BE
SOME CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING SUPER
CELLS. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS MAKE MUCH MORE SENSE IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THEREFORE...THE SHEAR IS MUCH TOO STRONG FOR THE CAPE
WHICH IS AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO WITH
TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREA OF -RA CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RAIN HAS CLEARED KRST...BUT SOME -RA/-DZ STILL
LINGERING NEAR KLSE. WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THERE.
MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND POST THE PRECIPITATION...BUT A CLEARING LINE
EXTENDS ACROSS WEST MN...AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
RAIN MAKER/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
VSBYS GENERALLY IMPROVE AS THE PCPN ENDS AND THE CIGS LIFT/CLEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RAIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED. BUFKIT
RAP/NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH COULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS OR FOG. ITS NOT AN
IDEAL SETUP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT NEAR
SFC WIND FIELD. IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND
BY 20 FT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE BR MENTION FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN HOW MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOG WOULD REDUCE
VSBYS. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SINCE WEDNESDAY...A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO SOME MELTING SNOW UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA...WILL CAUSE WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA RIVERS. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 242259
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 3 PM...RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO EAST OF RED WING
MINNESOTA TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FOUND
EAST OF A MEDFORD TO LANCASTER WISCONSIN LINE. THE ARW...HRRR...
RAP...AND NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 25.09Z. THIS BACK
EDGE CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE 900 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR MUCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OF
THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER MOSTLY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS LIMITED OMEGA IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH THE NAM
HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT
GENERATES PRECIPITATION AS SOON AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM BEING A
BIT TOO HIGH IN ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE LATTER MODELS. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS...THE NAM HAS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IF THE NAM VERIFIED THERE WOULD BE
SOME CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING SUPER
CELLS. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS MAKE MUCH MORE SENSE IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THEREFORE...THE SHEAR IS MUCH TOO STRONG FOR THE CAPE
WHICH IS AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO WITH
TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREA OF -RA CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RAIN HAS CLEARED KRST...BUT SOME -RA/-DZ STILL
LINGERING NEAR KLSE. WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THERE.
MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND POST THE PRECIPITATION...BUT A CLEARING LINE
EXTENDS ACROSS WEST MN...AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
RAIN MAKER/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
VSBYS GENERALLY IMPROVE AS THE PCPN ENDS AND THE CIGS LIFT/CLEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RAIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED. BUFKIT
RAP/NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH COULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS OR FOG. ITS NOT AN
IDEAL SETUP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT NEAR
SFC WIND FIELD. IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND
BY 20 FT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE BR MENTION FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN HOW MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOG WOULD REDUCE
VSBYS. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SINCE WEDNESDAY...A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO SOME MELTING SNOW UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA...WILL CAUSE WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA RIVERS. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 242048
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 3 PM...RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO EAST OF RED WING
MINNESOTA TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FOUND
EAST OF A MEDFORD TO LANCASTER WISCONSIN LINE. THE ARW...HRRR...
RAP...AND NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 25.09Z. THIS BACK
EDGE CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE 900 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR MUCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OF
THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING THAT THE WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER MOSTLY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS LIMITED OMEGA IN THIS LAYER. AS A RESULT...
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH THE NAM
HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...IT
GENERATES PRECIPITATION AS SOON AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM BEING A
BIT TOO HIGH IN ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE LATTER MODELS. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS...THE NAM HAS MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IF THE NAM VERIFIED THERE WOULD BE
SOME CONCERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING SUPER
CELLS. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS MAKE MUCH MORE SENSE IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THEREFORE...THE SHEAR IS MUCH TOO STRONG FOR THE CAPE
WHICH IS AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO WITH
TIME...THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND
LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING MAINLY
SHOWERS/RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS ARE REPORTING CEILING HEIGHTS
UNDERNEATH THE SHIELD OF RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 24.12Z NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
ADVECT INTO RST/LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TIME FRAME AT
BOTH SITES AND INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM
18 TO 21Z AT RST TAF SITE.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES BY 05Z. THE
24.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z FRIDAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BY
09Z. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT IN MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT RST
AND LSE FROM 09Z TO 14Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SINCE WEDNESDAY...A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO SOME MELTING SNOW UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA...WILL CAUSE WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA RIVERS. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 241740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY...
CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KS. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND TROUGHING NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WERE OVER
EASTERN KS TO MN. BROAD SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS PRODUCING
RATHER WIDESPREAD -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN
MN/WI AS GULF OF MEX MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHRA TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. A RATHER TIGHT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF RUNS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. HOWEVER
TREND IS TOWARD STRONGER/MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AS IS MOVES THRU THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS STRONGER TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS BY 12Z FRI. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL
DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS WERE GOOD WITH THE KS LOW AND TROUGHING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALB/SASKAT. A
BLEND OF THE MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS LOOKING
GOOD AT 06Z...FAVORED THE COMPROMISE/BLEND OF THE MODELS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG SURGE OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE IN THE 925-
700MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AN AREA
OF MDT/STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND UNDER
BROAD LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN JET MAXES AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY. PW VALUES AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...THE
100 PERCENT OR NEARLY SO RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ARE WELL TRENDED.
STRONGER/DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z FRI. THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
AMONG THE MODELS NOW HAS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...GENERALLY RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. CAPE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED TODAY BUT GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE/STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
TSRA MENTION. ONCE THE SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES...STRONG SIGNAL
FOR DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP/RAPID DRYING IN THE 925-500MB LAYER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL TREND GRIDS FOR THIS
BUT HAVE TO DELAY IT A BIT DUE TO THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND.

ALL THE LOWER CLOUDS/RAIN LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY WILL LIMIT
TEMPS AND THE DOWNWARD TREND OF HIGHS SEEN IN THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT...COOLER LOWS PER THE CONSENSUS
LOOK GOOD. IF WINDS END UP LIGHT/DECOUPLE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
WILL PASS ALONG TO DAY CREW TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL
-SHRA POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT/SAT...RETURNING RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES.

RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR FRI WITH A FASTER EXIT
OF TODAY/S TROUGH AND ANY SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE TO
PASS WELL NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG FOR
RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI
NIGHT/SAT WITH THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS
FOR THIS RIDGE AXIS TO PASS SAT NIGHT AS STRONG OVER THE ROCKIES
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE IMPROVING BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OUT TO 12Z SUN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TROUGHING DIGGING THRU THE ROCKIES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI
THRU SAT NIGHT IS TRENDING GOOD THIS CYCLE.

GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER FRI AS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE AREA. BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL COOLING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +10C RANGE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MDT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING...FRI TRENDING TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH
HIGHS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE 60S. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LIFT/PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. CAN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...
SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SNEAK THRU THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME 850-700MB WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT HELPING PROVIDE SOME LIFT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS CARRIED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND LEFT THIS FOR NOW. NAM/ECMWF TRY TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA
SAT BUT FORCING FOR THIS NOT WELL FOCUSED AND 850MB LAYER PROGGED ON
THE DRY SIDE. LEFT SAT DRY FOR NOW.

BY SAT NIGHT TREND OF THE TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND MORE
NORTHERLY WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SFC LOW. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ALLOWED TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...OVER THE NOW WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. PW VALUES OVER THE AREA PROGGED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO AN
INCH OR MORE SAT NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SAT NIGHT...TRENDED LOWS UPWARD. LOWS STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A -SN
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT...
BUT 850MB TEMPS IN THE +4 TO +8C RANGE FOR WHAT WOULD BE A COLD
RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. REMOVED -SN MENTION FROM
THESE PERIODS. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 24.00Z TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE/FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL CONUS MUCH OF THE SUN-WED
PERIOD. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE SLOW WITH IT STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE WESTERN LIMB OF A CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM OMEGA
BLOCK...WITH GENERALLY COOL AND MOIST PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN-WED PERIOD IS AVERAGE.

WITH THE BROAD SFC-500MB CIRCULATION LOOKING TO VERY SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN-WED...THE FCST AREA
REMAINS ON ITS EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE AND UNDER THE MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT THRU AT LEAST SUN/MON AND LIKELY THRU TUE/WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE COLUMN TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY -SN THRU MON AND REMOVED THIS
MENTION FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING GRIDS OF SUN THRU MON.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN THRU MON PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
QUITE REASONABLE. SOME 925-850MB COOLING TO OCCUR FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AS THE SFC-700MB LOW TRIES TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY
AND SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...
WRAPS SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY CIRCULATION. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING -RA/-SN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TUE/WED. MAY BE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
TO WRAP IN TUE/WED TO LIMIT PRECIP...BUT LEFT THE 20-40 PERCENT
CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES AS IS FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY 10F BELOW NORMAL APPEAR WELL TRENDED AT THIS
TIME WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM AN EAST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND
LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING MAINLY
SHOWERS/RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS ARE REPORTING CEILING HEIGHTS
UNDERNEATH THE SHIELD OF RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 24.12Z NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IFR/MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
ADVECT INTO RST/LSE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TIME FRAME AT
BOTH SITES AND INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM
18 TO 21Z AT RST TAF SITE.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBLE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES BY 05Z. THE
24.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z FRIDAY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BY
09Z. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT IN MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT RST
AND LSE FROM 09Z TO 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN AMOUNT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE RUNOFF AND MDT TO STRONG WITHIN BANK RISES ON
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KICKAPOO RIVER IF THE RAIN
AMOUNTS/RUNOFF END UP ON THE HEAVIER SIDE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED. WITH
MANY RIVER STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS/SNOWMELT...WILL
ISSUE AND ESF FOR THE POSSIBLE RISES/FLOODING FROM THE RAINS TODAY.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE RAINS IF THEY MATERIALIZE/FALL WOULD CREATE
ADDITIONAL RISES AND FLOODING THREATS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 241141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY...
CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KS. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND TROUGHING NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WERE OVER
EASTERN KS TO MN. BROAD SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS PRODUCING
RATHER WIDESPREAD -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN
MN/WI AS GULF OF MEX MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHRA TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. A RATHER TIGHT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF RUNS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. HOWEVER
TREND IS TOWARD STRONGER/MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AS IS MOVES THRU THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS STRONGER TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS BY 12Z FRI. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL
DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS WERE GOOD WITH THE KS LOW AND TROUGHING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALB/SASKAT. A
BLEND OF THE MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS LOOKING
GOOD AT 06Z...FAVORED THE COMPROMISE/BLEND OF THE MODELS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG SURGE OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE IN THE 925-
700MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AN AREA
OF MDT/STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND UNDER
BROAD LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN JET MAXES AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY. PW VALUES AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...THE
100 PERCENT OR NEARLY SO RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ARE WELL TRENDED.
STRONGER/DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z FRI. THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
AMONG THE MODELS NOW HAS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...GENERALLY RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. CAPE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED TODAY BUT GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE/STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
TSRA MENTION. ONCE THE SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES...STRONG SIGNAL
FOR DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP/RAPID DRYING IN THE 925-500MB LAYER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL TREND GRIDS FOR THIS
BUT HAVE TO DELAY IT A BIT DUE TO THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND.

ALL THE LOWER CLOUDS/RAIN LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY WILL LIMIT
TEMPS AND THE DOWNWARD TREND OF HIGHS SEEN IN THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT...COOLER LOWS PER THE CONSENSUS
LOOK GOOD. IF WINDS END UP LIGHT/DECOUPLE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
WILL PASS ALONG TO DAY CREW TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL
-SHRA POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT/SAT...RETURNING RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES.

RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR FRI WITH A FASTER EXIT
OF TODAY/S TROUGH AND ANY SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE TO
PASS WELL NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG FOR
RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI
NIGHT/SAT WITH THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS
FOR THIS RIDGE AXIS TO PASS SAT NIGHT AS STRONG OVER THE ROCKIES
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE IMPROVING BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OUT TO 12Z SUN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TROUGHING DIGGING THRU THE ROCKIES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI
THRU SAT NIGHT IS TRENDING GOOD THIS CYCLE.

GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER FRI AS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE AREA. BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL COOLING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +10C RANGE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MDT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING...FRI TRENDING TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH
HIGHS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE 60S. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LIFT/PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. CAN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...
SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SNEAK THRU THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME 850-700MB WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT HELPING PROVIDE SOME LIFT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS CARRIED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND LEFT THIS FOR NOW. NAM/ECMWF TRY TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA
SAT BUT FORCING FOR THIS NOT WELL FOCUSED AND 850MB LAYER PROGGED ON
THE DRY SIDE. LEFT SAT DRY FOR NOW.

BY SAT NIGHT TREND OF THE TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND MORE
NORTHERLY WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SFC LOW. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ALLOWED TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...OVER THE NOW WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. PW VALUES OVER THE AREA PROGGED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO AN
INCH OR MORE SAT NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SAT NIGHT...TRENDED LOWS UPWARD. LOWS STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A -SN
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT...
BUT 850MB TEMPS IN THE +4 TO +8C RANGE FOR WHAT WOULD BE A COLD
RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. REMOVED -SN MENTION FROM
THESE PERIODS. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 24.00Z TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE/FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL CONUS MUCH OF THE SUN-WED
PERIOD. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE SLOW WITH IT STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE WESTERN LIMB OF A CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM OMEGA
BLOCK...WITH GENERALLY COOL AND MOIST PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN-WED PERIOD IS AVERAGE.

WITH THE BROAD SFC-500MB CIRCULATION LOOKING TO VERY SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN-WED...THE FCST AREA
REMAINS ON ITS EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE AND UNDER THE MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT THRU AT LEAST SUN/MON AND LIKELY THRU TUE/WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE COLUMN TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY -SN THRU MON AND REMOVED THIS
MENTION FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING GRIDS OF SUN THRU MON.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN THRU MON PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
QUITE REASONABLE. SOME 925-850MB COOLING TO OCCUR FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AS THE SFC-700MB LOW TRIES TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY
AND SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...
WRAPS SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY CIRCULATION. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING -RA/-SN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TUE/WED. MAY BE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
TO WRAP IN TUE/WED TO LIMIT PRECIP...BUT LEFT THE 20-40 PERCENT
CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES AS IS FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY 10F BELOW NORMAL APPEAR WELL TRENDED AT THIS
TIME WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM AN EAST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS TAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA. THIS HEAVIER RAIN WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMING FROM
VISIBILITY. THAT MAY CHANGE AFTER THE MAIN RAIN COMES THROUGH AS
THERE ARE SOME LOWER CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND MARKS THE END OF THE RAIN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ACROSS THE
REGION IF WINDS CAN GO LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN AMOUNT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE RUNOFF AND MDT TO STRONG WITHIN BANK RISES ON
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KICKAPOO RIVER IF THE RAIN
AMOUNTS/RUNOFF END UP ON THE HEAVIER SIDE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED. WITH
MANY RIVER STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS/SNOWMELT...WILL
ISSUE AND ESF FOR THE POSSIBLE RISES/FLOODING FROM THE RAINS TODAY.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE RAINS IF THEY MATERIALIZE/FALL WOULD CREATE
ADDITIONAL RISES AND FLOODING THREATS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 240901
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY...
CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KS. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND TROUGHING NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WERE OVER
EASTERN KS TO MN. BROAD SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WAS PRODUCING
RATHER WIDESPREAD -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN
MN/WI AS GULF OF MEX MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. EVEN WITH ALL THE CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHRA TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 24.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. A RATHER TIGHT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF RUNS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. HOWEVER
TREND IS TOWARD STRONGER/MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH AS IS MOVES THRU THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS STRONGER TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS BY 12Z FRI. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL
DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS WERE GOOD WITH THE KS LOW AND TROUGHING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ALB/SASKAT. A
BLEND OF THE MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS LOOKING
GOOD AT 06Z...FAVORED THE COMPROMISE/BLEND OF THE MODELS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG SURGE OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE IN THE 925-
700MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AN AREA
OF MDT/STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND UNDER
BROAD LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN JET MAXES AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY. PW VALUES AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT...THE
100 PERCENT OR NEARLY SO RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ARE WELL TRENDED.
STRONGER/DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE RAIN CHANCES
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z FRI. THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND
AMONG THE MODELS NOW HAS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...GENERALLY RAISED RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. CAPE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED TODAY BUT GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE/STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
TSRA MENTION. ONCE THE SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES...STRONG SIGNAL
FOR DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP/RAPID DRYING IN THE 925-500MB LAYER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL TREND GRIDS FOR THIS
BUT HAVE TO DELAY IT A BIT DUE TO THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND.

ALL THE LOWER CLOUDS/RAIN LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY WILL LIMIT
TEMPS AND THE DOWNWARD TREND OF HIGHS SEEN IN THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT...COOLER LOWS PER THE CONSENSUS
LOOK GOOD. IF WINDS END UP LIGHT/DECOUPLE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. LEFT LATE NIGHT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
WILL PASS ALONG TO DAY CREW TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL
-SHRA POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT/SAT...RETURNING RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES.

RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR FRI WITH A FASTER EXIT
OF TODAY/S TROUGH AND ANY SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE TO
PASS WELL NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG FOR
RISING HGTS/RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI
NIGHT/SAT WITH THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS
FOR THIS RIDGE AXIS TO PASS SAT NIGHT AS STRONG OVER THE ROCKIES
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE IMPROVING BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OUT TO 12Z SUN...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TROUGHING DIGGING THRU THE ROCKIES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI
THRU SAT NIGHT IS TRENDING GOOD THIS CYCLE.

GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER FRI AS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE AREA. BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL COOLING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FRI...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +10C RANGE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MDT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MIXING...FRI TRENDING TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH
HIGHS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 IN THE 60S. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LIFT/PRECIP
PRODUCTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT. CAN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...
SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SNEAK THRU THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME 850-700MB WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT HELPING PROVIDE SOME LIFT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS CARRIED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST END
OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND LEFT THIS FOR NOW. NAM/ECMWF TRY TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA
SAT BUT FORCING FOR THIS NOT WELL FOCUSED AND 850MB LAYER PROGGED ON
THE DRY SIDE. LEFT SAT DRY FOR NOW.

BY SAT NIGHT TREND OF THE TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND MORE
NORTHERLY WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SFC LOW. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS ALLOWED TO SPREAD MORE MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...OVER THE NOW WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. PW VALUES OVER THE AREA PROGGED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO AN
INCH OR MORE SAT NIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SAT NIGHT...TRENDED LOWS UPWARD. LOWS STILL LOOKS TO SUPPORT A -SN
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT...
BUT 850MB TEMPS IN THE +4 TO +8C RANGE FOR WHAT WOULD BE A COLD
RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. REMOVED -SN MENTION FROM
THESE PERIODS. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 24.00Z TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE/FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL CONUS MUCH OF THE SUN-WED
PERIOD. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE SLOW WITH IT STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE WESTERN LIMB OF A CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM OMEGA
BLOCK...WITH GENERALLY COOL AND MOIST PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN-WED PERIOD IS AVERAGE.

WITH THE BROAD SFC-500MB CIRCULATION LOOKING TO VERY SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN-WED...THE FCST AREA
REMAINS ON ITS EAST/NORTHEAST SIDE AND UNDER THE MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT THRU AT LEAST SUN/MON AND LIKELY THRU TUE/WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE COLUMN TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY -SN THRU MON AND REMOVED THIS
MENTION FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING GRIDS OF SUN THRU MON.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN THRU MON PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS
QUITE REASONABLE. SOME 925-850MB COOLING TO OCCUR FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AS THE SFC-700MB LOW TRIES TO SLIDE EAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY
AND SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...
WRAPS SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID MS VALLEY CIRCULATION. CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING -RA/-SN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA TUE/WED. MAY BE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
TO WRAP IN TUE/WED TO LIMIT PRECIP...BUT LEFT THE 20-40 PERCENT
CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES AS IS FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
HIGHS/LOWS GENERALLY 10F BELOW NORMAL APPEAR WELL TRENDED AT THIS
TIME WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM AN EAST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FIRST BAND OF PCPN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF KLSE LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS IA/NEB. THIS
NEXT BATCH WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AT THE ONSET...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARD 09Z PER LATEST HRRR/RUC13/NAM12. CIGS WILL FALL
INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HOLD THERE
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE RAIN WON/T EXIT UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z FRI.
MOSTLY FORECASTING MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF 1-2SM
COULD OCCUR.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THU...WITH A SWING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST TOWARD 00Z FRI. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTING ABOUT A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE LLWS COULD BE
A CONCERN...ROUGHLY IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME. ITS BORDERLINE RIGHT
NOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WOULD BE WS020/17048KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN AMOUNT OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE RUNOFF AND MDT TO STRONG WITHIN BANK RISES ON
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KICKAPOO RIVER IF THE RAIN
AMOUNTS/RUNOFF END UP ON THE HEAVIER SIDE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED. WITH
MANY RIVER STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS/SNOWMELT...WILL
ISSUE AND ESF FOR THE POSSIBLE RISES/FLOODING FROM THE RAINS TODAY.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE RAINS IF THEY MATERIALIZE/FALL WOULD CREATE
ADDITIONAL RISES AND FLOODING THREATS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 240402
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTH WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE HRRR...RAP...AND ARW SHOW THAT THE
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MARCH EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE EVENING.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE EXPECT ENHANCED THE RAIN RATES ACROSS THE AREA. A TOTAL OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...KEPT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /ABOVE 2 KM/ IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THE 2-6 KM SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS...THIS
IS JUST TOO GREAT CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY FOR ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE JUST A BIT SLOWER AT
MOVING THE STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE 500 MB
SHORT WAVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED DOWN
THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SOUNDINGS SHOW
NO ICE SEEDING FROM ALOFT...THUS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A BACK DOOR CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SATURATES THIS COLUMN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. DUE
TO THIS...ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE OF THEIR TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AFTER DAYS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER...THEY CAME TO A CONSENSUS IN THE
23.00Z RUNS THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK MORE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WINDS OUT AND THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WOULD LEAVE THIS TIME PERIOD DRY. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THAT HIGH...THUS STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FIRST BAND OF PCPN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF KLSE LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS IA/NEB. THIS
NEXT BATCH WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AT THE ONSET...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARD 09Z PER LATEST HRRR/RUC13/NAM12. CIGS WILL FALL
INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HOLD THERE
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE RAIN WON/T EXIT UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z FRI.
MOSTLY FORECASTING MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF 1-2SM
COULD OCCUR.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THU...WITH A SWING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST TOWARD 00Z FRI. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTING ABOUT A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE LLWS COULD BE
A CONCERN...ROUGHLY IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME. ITS BORDERLINE RIGHT
NOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WOULD BE WS020/17048KT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 232249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTH WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE HRRR...RAP...AND ARW SHOW THAT THE
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MARCH EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE EVENING.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE EXPECT ENHANCED THE RAIN RATES ACROSS THE AREA. A TOTAL OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...KEPT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /ABOVE 2 KM/ IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THE 2-6 KM SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS...THIS
IS JUST TOO GREAT CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY FOR ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE JUST A BIT SLOWER AT
MOVING THE STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE 500 MB
SHORT WAVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED DOWN
THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SOUNDINGS SHOW
NO ICE SEEDING FROM ALOFT...THUS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A BACK DOOR CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SATURATES THIS COLUMN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. DUE
TO THIS...ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE OF THEIR TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AFTER DAYS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER...THEY CAME TO A CONSENSUS IN THE
23.00Z RUNS THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK MORE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WINDS OUT AND THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WOULD LEAVE THIS TIME PERIOD DRY. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THAT HIGH...THUS STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

-SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 02Z OR SO...MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK IN THE PCPN AFTER THAT...BEFORE RAIN RETURNS TOWARD 06Z AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT
WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AT THE ONSET...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TOWARD 12Z THU. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HOLD THERE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE RAIN WON/T
EXIT UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON THU. MOSTLY FORECASTING MVFR VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF 1-2SM COULD OCCUR.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THU...WITH A SWING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST TOWARD 00Z FRI. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTING ABOUT A 3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE LLWS COULD BE
A CONCERN...ROUGHLY IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME. ITS BORDERLINE RIGHT
NOW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WOULD BE WS020/17048KT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 232045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER NORTH WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
CURRENTLY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE HRRR...RAP...AND ARW SHOW THAT THE
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE THE RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MARCH EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE EVENING.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE EXPECT ENHANCED THE RAIN RATES ACROSS THE AREA. A TOTAL OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...KEPT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /ABOVE 2 KM/ IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THE 2-6 KM SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS...THIS
IS JUST TOO GREAT CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY FOR ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE JUST A BIT SLOWER AT
MOVING THE STRONG 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE 500 MB
SHORT WAVE THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...SLOWED DOWN
THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SOUNDINGS SHOW
NO ICE SEEDING FROM ALOFT...THUS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A BACK DOOR CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SATURATES THIS COLUMN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. DUE
TO THIS...ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE OF THEIR TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AFTER DAYS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER...THEY CAME TO A CONSENSUS IN THE
23.00Z RUNS THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK MORE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE 23.12Z MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WINDS OUT AND THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WOULD LEAVE THIS TIME PERIOD DRY. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THAT HIGH...THUS STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND
LSE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM INTO THE AREA. FIRST IMPULSE EJECTING OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. INCREASING
MOISTURE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AND ALLOWS
CEILINGS TO LOWER AT BOTH TAF SITES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR RANGE BY 12Z
THURSDAY AT RST TAF SITE. FOR NOW LOWERED THE CEILINGS INTO THE
IFR RANGE AT RST BY 09Z THURSDAY...PER PREVIOUS TAF. LSE TAF SITE
APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING TO
AROUND 1500 FEET BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY AT
BOTH TAF SITES...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 231730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ONT...LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 25F-40F RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/MUCH OF WI
UNDER THE RIDGE. NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPING A LEE LOW IN WY/EASTERN MT. MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ SFC LOW ALREADY SPREADING OVER IA/MN.
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING AND UNDER THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER INCREASINGLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z THU...AT LEAST WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEADING WARM ADVECTION/FN
CONVERGENCE PRECIP TODAY. CONSENSUS TREND TODAY/TONIGHT IS A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH BY 12Z THU. NO ONE MODEL LOOKING
TO HAVE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHERS THIS CYCLE.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE QUITE GOOD WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND THE 990MB LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGHING
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY FAVORED THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE OVERALL TIGHTER
CONSENSUS IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/
ROCKIES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STRONGER OF
THE WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE CENTERED
AROUND 700MB...295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE
NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TRENDED -SHRA CHANCES DOWN THIS MORNING AND MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOR THE LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. CAPE REMAINS
LIMITED AT BEST BUT CONTINUED AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT
SIGNAL AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
DEEPER/STRONGER DYNAMICS/LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SFC LOW THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SFC-850MB
LAYER. TREND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATER
TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA
GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH LATER TONIGHT...SOME 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH MORE/INCREASE CLOUDS...COOLING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE FALL THRU THE DRIER SFC-850MB
LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES/RAIN AMOUNTS THU...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES THU NIGHT/FRI...
TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE
STRONG SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTS INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU
NIGHT...THEN HGTS RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME SMALLER DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY 00Z FRI...RELATED TO HANDLING OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT PASSES LATER THU/THU EVENING. EVEN
WITH THE MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THU NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE THU
THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD.

DEEP/STRONG FORCING/LIFT AND HIGH PW AIRMASS THAT ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU...AHEAD OF/WITH THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH. WITH THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND INDICATED AMONG THE
MODELS...THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THIS IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU MORNING AND TRENDED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD
100 PERCENT THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
PRECIP EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY TSRA. LOWER LEVEL
DRYING/DECREASE OF MOISTURE SPREADS EAST INTO THE AREA THU AFTERNOON
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC-850MB TROUGH. CONTINUED/ENHANCED THE
DOWNWARD TREND OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
THRU THE AFTERNOON...WHILE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON RAISING
PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE U.P. OF MI. DRIER SFC-700MB AIR SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THU EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES LIMITED TO NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 29 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WI BY LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. STEEP SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES UNDER
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL FRI AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS
REASONABLE. DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR FRI NIGHT
AND LEFT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOLLOWED THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FRI HIGHS THE TRICKIEST...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL OF A /BACKDOOR/ COLD FRONT THAT MAY
DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI FRI AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT FRI
HIGH MAY BE 3-5F TOO COOL.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLOWLY IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
SAT THRU TUE PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CONTINUE
COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS AND TREND
TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE REGION. CONTINUED TO TREND SAT DRY. CONSENSUS REMAINS
QUITE GOOD WITH THE MID LEVEL HGTS SUN/MON BUT LOWER LEVEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR/INCREASE. THIS AS A 500MB LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN/MON...APPEARING AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM. FLOW EAST OF THE SFC-
700MB LOW WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. BIGGER QUESTIONS ARE HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE...AND RESULTING PRECIP
CHANCES SPREAD THRU THE SAT NIGHT-TUE PERIOD. OVERALL TREND THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STRONGER...FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE/LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES. DUE TO THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON MODEL...APPEARS
COLUMN/SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME -SN TO MIX IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN-MON-TUE AND LEFT THIS IN
THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW. FAVORING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS...THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE
SAT-TUE PERIOD LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND
LSE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM INTO THE AREA. FIRST IMPULSE EJECTING OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. INCREASING
MOISTURE OCCURS OVER THE REGION AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AND ALLOWS
CEILINGS TO LOWER AT BOTH TAF SITES...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR RANGE BY 12Z
THURSDAY AT RST TAF SITE. FOR NOW LOWERED THE CEILINGS INTO THE
IFR RANGE AT RST BY 09Z THURSDAY...PER PREVIOUS TAF. LSE TAF SITE
APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING TO
AROUND 1500 FEET BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY AT
BOTH TAF SITES...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF WOULD
KEEP AREA RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THIS
RAIN FALL OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 231120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ONT...LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 25F-40F RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/MUCH OF WI
UNDER THE RIDGE. NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPING A LEE LOW IN WY/EASTERN MT. MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ SFC LOW ALREADY SPREADING OVER IA/MN.
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING AND UNDER THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER INCREASINGLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z THU...AT LEAST WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEADING WARM ADVECTION/FN
CONVERGENCE PRECIP TODAY. CONSENSUS TREND TODAY/TONIGHT IS A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH BY 12Z THU. NO ONE MODEL LOOKING
TO HAVE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHERS THIS CYCLE.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE QUITE GOOD WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND THE 990MB LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGHING
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY FAVORED THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE OVERALL TIGHTER
CONSENSUS IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/
ROCKIES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STRONGER OF
THE WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE CENTERED
AROUND 700MB...295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE
NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TRENDED -SHRA CHANCES DOWN THIS MORNING AND MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOR THE LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. CAPE REMAINS
LIMITED AT BEST BUT CONTINUED AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT
SIGNAL AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
DEEPER/STRONGER DYNAMICS/LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SFC LOW THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SFC-850MB
LAYER. TREND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATER
TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA
GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH LATER TONIGHT...SOME 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH MORE/INCREASE CLOUDS...COOLING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE FALL THRU THE DRIER SFC-850MB
LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES/RAIN AMOUNTS THU...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES THU NIGHT/FRI...
TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE
STRONG SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTS INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU
NIGHT...THEN HGTS RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME SMALLER DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY 00Z FRI...RELATED TO HANDLING OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT PASSES LATER THU/THU EVENING. EVEN
WITH THE MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THU NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE THU
THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD.

DEEP/STRONG FORCING/LIFT AND HIGH PW AIRMASS THAT ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU...AHEAD OF/WITH THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH. WITH THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND INDICATED AMONG THE
MODELS...THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THIS IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU MORNING AND TRENDED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD
100 PERCENT THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
PRECIP EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY TSRA. LOWER LEVEL
DRYING/DECREASE OF MOISTURE SPREADS EAST INTO THE AREA THU AFTERNOON
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC-850MB TROUGH. CONTINUED/ENHANCED THE
DOWNWARD TREND OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
THRU THE AFTERNOON...WHILE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON RAISING
PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE U.P. OF MI. DRIER SFC-700MB AIR SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THU EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES LIMITED TO NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 29 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WI BY LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. STEEP SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES UNDER
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL FRI AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS
REASONABLE. DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR FRI NIGHT
AND LEFT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOLLOWED THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FRI HIGHS THE TRICKIEST...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL OF A /BACKDOOR/ COLD FRONT THAT MAY
DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI FRI AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT FRI
HIGH MAY BE 3-5F TOO COOL.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLOWLY IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
SAT THRU TUE PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CONTINUE
COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS AND TREND
TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE REGION. CONTINUED TO TREND SAT DRY. CONSENSUS REMAINS
QUITE GOOD WITH THE MID LEVEL HGTS SUN/MON BUT LOWER LEVEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR/INCREASE. THIS AS A 500MB LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN/MON...APPEARING AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM. FLOW EAST OF THE SFC-
700MB LOW WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. BIGGER QUESTIONS ARE HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE...AND RESULTING PRECIP
CHANCES SPREAD THRU THE SAT NIGHT-TUE PERIOD. OVERALL TREND THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STRONGER...FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE/LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES. DUE TO THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON MODEL...APPEARS
COLUMN/SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME -SN TO MIX IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN-MON-TUE AND LEFT THIS IN
THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW. FAVORING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS...THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE
SAT-TUE PERIOD LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES AND WHEN
CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW VFR. AN INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA
WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS ALONG IT SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS. THIS BAND
WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO STAY VFR. AFTER A BREAK THIS EVENING...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
COME IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK VERY LIKELY
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT RST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH THESE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF WOULD
KEEP AREA RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THIS
RAIN FALL OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 230856
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ONT...LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 25F-40F RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/MUCH OF WI
UNDER THE RIDGE. NEXT TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPING A LEE LOW IN WY/EASTERN MT. MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ SFC LOW ALREADY SPREADING OVER IA/MN.
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN MN WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING AND UNDER THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER INCREASINGLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z THU...AT LEAST WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEADING WARM ADVECTION/FN
CONVERGENCE PRECIP TODAY. CONSENSUS TREND TODAY/TONIGHT IS A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH BY 12Z THU. NO ONE MODEL LOOKING
TO HAVE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHERS THIS CYCLE.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE QUITE GOOD WITH
THE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND THE 990MB LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
ALL APPEARED REASONABLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGHING
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY FAVORED THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE OVERALL TIGHTER
CONSENSUS IN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/
ROCKIES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. STRONGER OF
THE WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE CENTERED
AROUND 700MB...295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE
NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TRENDED -SHRA CHANCES DOWN THIS MORNING AND MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING FOR THE LEADING BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. CAPE REMAINS
LIMITED AT BEST BUT CONTINUED AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT
SIGNAL AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
DEEPER/STRONGER DYNAMICS/LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SFC LOW THRU
MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SFC-850MB
LAYER. TREND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATER
TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA
GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH LATER TONIGHT...SOME 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED
GOOD. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH MORE/INCREASE CLOUDS...COOLING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE FALL THRU THE DRIER SFC-850MB
LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES/RAIN AMOUNTS THU...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES THU NIGHT/FRI...
TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE
STRONG SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LIFTS INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THU/THU
NIGHT...THEN HGTS RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME SMALLER DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES BY 00Z FRI...RELATED TO HANDLING OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT PASSES LATER THU/THU EVENING. EVEN
WITH THE MINOR DIFFERENCES BY THU NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE THU
THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD.

DEEP/STRONG FORCING/LIFT AND HIGH PW AIRMASS THAT ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU...AHEAD OF/WITH THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH. WITH THE SLIGHT SLOWING TREND INDICATED AMONG THE
MODELS...THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THIS IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU MORNING AND TRENDED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES TOWARD
100 PERCENT THU MORNING. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
PRECIP EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY TSRA. LOWER LEVEL
DRYING/DECREASE OF MOISTURE SPREADS EAST INTO THE AREA THU AFTERNOON
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC-850MB TROUGH. CONTINUED/ENHANCED THE
DOWNWARD TREND OF RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA
THRU THE AFTERNOON...WHILE AT LEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON RAISING
PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE U.P. OF MI. DRIER SFC-700MB AIR SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THU EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING
-SHRA CHANCES LIMITED TO NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 29 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WI BY LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. STEEP SFC-800MB LAPSE RATES UNDER
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL FRI AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -SHRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS
REASONABLE. DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR FRI NIGHT
AND LEFT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOLLOWED THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FRI HIGHS THE TRICKIEST...AS
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL OF A /BACKDOOR/ COLD FRONT THAT MAY
DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI FRI AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT FRI
HIGH MAY BE 3-5F TOO COOL.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

23.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLOWLY IMPROVING CONSENSUS IN THE
SAT THRU TUE PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CONTINUE
COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS AND TREND
TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE REGION. CONTINUED TO TREND SAT DRY. CONSENSUS REMAINS
QUITE GOOD WITH THE MID LEVEL HGTS SUN/MON BUT LOWER LEVEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR/INCREASE. THIS AS A 500MB LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN/MON...APPEARING AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM. FLOW EAST OF THE SFC-
700MB LOW WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. BIGGER QUESTIONS ARE HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE...AND RESULTING PRECIP
CHANCES SPREAD THRU THE SAT NIGHT-TUE PERIOD. OVERALL TREND THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STRONGER...FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE/LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES. DUE TO THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON MODEL...APPEARS
COLUMN/SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME -SN TO MIX IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN-MON-TUE AND LEFT THIS IN
THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW. FAVORING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS...THE BLEND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE
SAT-TUE PERIOD LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN THE FROM THE WEST...GRADUALLY
THICKENING AND BECOMING A CIG TOWARD 12Z WED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW
-SHRA WILL BE SCATTERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING A BAND TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...IMPACTING KRST/KLSE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
VFR CIGS WILL HOLD...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...POST
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM/S
SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTION. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/RAIN TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THU MORNING.
LOOK FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE RAIN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING WED...WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS LIKELY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF. THIS RUNOFF WOULD
KEEP AREA RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THIS
RAIN FALL OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 230410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RAINFALL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS A LARGE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM MN/IA. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE WAS
PRODUCING FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE ONSET...THEN THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINKING THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LIGHT WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DECENT ARM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO
OUR REGION FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY RATHER
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS/CLOUD COVER/RAIN ALL
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

HEAVIER SLUG OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WESTERN IA. NAM/GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH INCREASING TAP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND MODEL CAPE VALUES SHOW INSTABILITY
RATHER LIMITED AGAIN...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
VERBIAGE FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THAT SURFACE LOW OVER IA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
EVENING AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PLAN ON GENERAL COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FOR SOME GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS BRISK WITH DEEPER
MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TOT HE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED THROUGH AS BOTH THE LATEST EC AND GFS
BRING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT  INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

BOTH GFS/EC HINTING AT KEEPING A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR A COOLER BOUT OF TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH ON/OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN THE FROM THE WEST...GRADUALLY
THICKENING AND BECOMING A CIG TOWARD 12Z WED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW
-SHRA WILL BE SCATTERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING A BAND TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...IMPACTING KRST/KLSE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
VFR CIGS WILL HOLD...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...POST
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM/S
SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTION. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/RAIN TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THU MORNING.
LOOK FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE RAIN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID/LATE MORNING WED...WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS LIKELY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLAN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA TO SLOWLY FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SNOWMELT FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION...SOME MINOR RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL ALSO OCCUR. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREA
RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 222243
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RAINFALL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS A LARGE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM MN/IA. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE WAS
PRODUCING FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE ONSET...THEN THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINKING THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LIGHT WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DECENT ARM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO
OUR REGION FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY RATHER
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS/CLOUD COVER/RAIN ALL
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

HEAVIER SLUG OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WESTERN IA. NAM/GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH INCREASING TAP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND MODEL CAPE VALUES SHOW INSTABILITY
RATHER LIMITED AGAIN...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
VERBIAGE FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THAT SURFACE LOW OVER IA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
EVENING AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PLAN ON GENERAL COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FOR SOME GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS BRISK WITH DEEPER
MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TOT HE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED THROUGH AS BOTH THE LATEST EC AND GFS
BRING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT  INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

BOTH GFS/EC HINTING AT KEEPING A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR A COOLER BOUT OF TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH ON/OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN THE FROM THE WEST...GRADUALLY
THICKENING AND BECOMING A CIG TOWARD 12Z WED. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW
-SHRA WILL BE SCATTERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING A BAND TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS...IMPACTING KRST/KLSE FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VFR
CIGS WILL HOLD...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN WOULD
BE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...POST
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM/S
SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTION. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
WHEN THIS RAIN TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THU
MORNING. LOOK FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN THE RAIN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS LIKELY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLAN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA TO SLOWLY FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SNOWMELT FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION...SOME MINOR RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL ALSO OCCUR. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREA
RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 222004
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RAINFALL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS A LARGE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WAS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM MN/IA. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE WAS
PRODUCING FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE ONSET...THEN THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THINKING THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LIGHT WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DECENT ARM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO
OUR REGION FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY RATHER
LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS/CLOUD COVER/RAIN ALL
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

HEAVIER SLUG OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WESTERN IA. NAM/GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH INCREASING TAP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOOKING AT BUFKIT AND MODEL CAPE VALUES SHOW INSTABILITY
RATHER LIMITED AGAIN...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
VERBIAGE FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THAT SURFACE LOW OVER IA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
EVENING AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

PLAN ON GENERAL COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FOR SOME GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS BRISK WITH DEEPER
MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TOT HE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER LOOKS SHORT-LIVED THROUGH AS BOTH THE LATEST EC AND GFS
BRING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT  INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

BOTH GFS/EC HINTING AT KEEPING A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR A COOLER BOUT OF TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH ON/OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
23.09Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM 15K TO 5K FEET
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH 23.0Z AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH 23.12Z. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO KRST AFTER 23.14Z AND INTO KLSE AFTER 23.17Z. VISIBILITIES WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLAN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA TO SLOWLY FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SNOWMELT FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION...SOME MINOR RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL ALSO OCCUR. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREA
RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 221736
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD COOLER AND DRY CANADIAN PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FOR SOME STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE
VICINITY OF LK SUPERIOR. CONTINUING NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING MID 20S TO MID 30S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...
WHILE CLEAR SKIES/DEEP DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
30S/40S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED WITH 22.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS
THE PATTERN PROGRESSES AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. ECMWF OFFERS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. CHECK
OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE GOOD WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MN. MODELS ALSO REASONABLE WITH THE DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE REGION. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED QUITE GOOD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO ONE MODEL
FAVORITE AND GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...FAVORED
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD AND FAVORING ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER THE OTHERS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE COOLER/DRY CAN HIGH DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HGTS GRADUALLY
RISE/RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. DAY TO START OFF SUNNY...
BUT FOR THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE 850MB WINDS/
TRAJECTORIES SPREAD SOME OF THE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS INTO THE KMDZ AREA. MODELS SPREAD SOME INCREASED 850MB
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
EVIDENT WITH SCT CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR
850MB...FEW-SCT STRATO-CU SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH BEGIN TO ARRIVE.  850MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -6C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AROUND 1
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT SOME 3F TO
8F BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/
AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FOR THE WED THRU THU NIGHT
PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WED MOVES TO OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THU NIGHT. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DETAIL
DIFFERENCES THU/THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION
BUT THESE LESS THAN EARLIER CYCLES...WITH MODELS TENDING TO FAVOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PORTION OF THE FCST IS GOOD.

BAND OF RATHER STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
LOW/TROUGH SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. RATHER STRONG
850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE SIGNAL SEEN AS WELL. THIS WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE BY LATE WED/WED EVENING.
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORCING/LIFT TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP/OVERCOME THE DRIER SFC TO ROUGHLY
775MB AIRMASS. CONTINUED TO SPREAD 50-70 PERCENT -SHRA CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT...INCLUDED AND ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE FCST AREA WED EVENING...WITH WHAT WOULD BE A 3 TO 6 HR BREAK
FROM THE SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER ROUND OF DEEP FORCING/
LIFT ARRIVES. JUST LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 00-06Z THU PERIOD FOR NOW. LATER CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO ADD
MORE DETAIL AS THE CONSENSUS TIGHTENS. DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT
FROM 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
THRU 400-200MB PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1+ INCH RANGE...AROUND
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 90-100 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND SFC-700MB LOW/TROUGH APPROACH/LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CAPE CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE LIMITED OVER THE AREA OR IN THE
INFLOW AIRMASS LATER WED NIGHT/THU. GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE
FORCING/LIFT...CARRIED A TSRA CHANCE THESE PERIODS.

PRECIP CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGER FORCING/LIFT ROTATE/LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM BY FRI MORNING. SIDED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE WED-THU NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS
A CATEGORY OR 2 BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
ALL THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON
THRU THU MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES
FRI...RETURNING -RA/POTENTIAL -SN AT NIGHT CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 22.00Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH
TO BE PROGRESSIVE FRI AND HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO RISE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. LESSER BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY
SUN/MON AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR FRI/SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SUN/MON.

NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS CYCLE. BETTER
SIGNAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE DOWN THRU THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS MN/WI ON FRI. WITH DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA ON FRI APPEAR REASONABLE FOR NOW. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
PASSES...HGTS START TO RISE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF COOL CAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. MODELS THEN TRY
TO SPREAD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/TROUGHING INTO/OVER THIS
HIGH PRESSURE/SFC RIDGING SAT NIGHT INTO MON. WITH THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN LOOKING RATHER OMEGA-BLOCKY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM FOR
SUN/MON...GFS APPEARS TO SPREAD MOISTURE/PRECIP TOO FAR NORTHEAST
INTO THE RIDGING ON DAYS 6/7. HOWEVER...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -RA /SOME -SN CHANCES DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES IN THE SAT NIGHT THRU MON FCST
GRIDS. TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE FRI-MON PERIOD
GIVEN WHAT WOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF A LARGE CAN
HIGH PARKED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS
FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
23.09Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM 15K TO 5K FEET
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH 23.0Z AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH 23.12Z. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AFTER 23.14Z AND INTO KLSE AFTER 23.17Z.
VISIBILITIES WITH THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THERE MAY BE
EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA.
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THEN WILL LEVEL OFF OR RISE SLIGHTLY AS
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

KRST HAS GONE 192 DAYS WITHOUT REACHING 70F...SINCE OCT 11. GIVEN
THE FCST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS STRING LOOKS TO REMAIN INTACT
INTO AT LEAST THE END OF APRIL. THE LAST TIME A STRING OF DAYS
WITHOUT REACHING 70F WENT THIS LONG WAS THE WINTER SEASON OF
1996-97...194 DAYS. THE RECORD STRING OF DAYS BETWEEN REACHING 70F
AT KRST IS 209...SET IN THE WINTER SEASON OF 1959-60.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RRS
CLIMATE......RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 221125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD COOLER AND DRY CANADIAN PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FOR SOME STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE
VICINITY OF LK SUPERIOR. CONTINUING NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING MID 20S TO MID 30S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...
WHILE CLEAR SKIES/DEEP DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
30S/40S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED WITH 22.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS
THE PATTERN PROGRESSES AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. ECMWF OFFERS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. CHECK
OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE GOOD WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MN. MODELS ALSO REASONABLE WITH THE DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE REGION. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED QUITE GOOD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO ONE MODEL
FAVORITE AND GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...FAVORED
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD AND FAVORING ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER THE OTHERS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE COOLER/DRY CAN HIGH DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HGTS GRADUALLY
RISE/RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. DAY TO START OFF SUNNY...
BUT FOR THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE 850MB WINDS/
TRAJECTORIES SPREAD SOME OF THE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS INTO THE KMDZ AREA. MODELS SPREAD SOME INCREASED 850MB
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
EVIDENT WITH SCT CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR
850MB...FEW-SCT STRATO-CU SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH BEGIN TO ARRIVE.  850MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -6C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AROUND 1
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT SOME 3F TO
8F BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/
AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FOR THE WED THRU THU NIGHT
PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WED MOVES TO OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THU NIGHT. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DETAIL
DIFFERENCES THU/THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION
BUT THESE LESS THAN EARLIER CYCLES...WITH MODELS TENDING TO FAVOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PORTION OF THE FCST IS GOOD.

BAND OF RATHER STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
LOW/TROUGH SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. RATHER STRONG
850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE SIGNAL SEEN AS WELL. THIS WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE BY LATE WED/WED EVENING.
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORCING/LIFT TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP/OVERCOME THE DRIER SFC TO ROUGHLY
775MB AIRMASS. CONTINUED TO SPREAD 50-70 PERCENT -SHRA CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT...INCLUDED AND ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE FCST AREA WED EVENING...WITH WHAT WOULD BE A 3 TO 6 HR BREAK
FROM THE SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER ROUND OF DEEP FORCING/
LIFT ARRIVES. JUST LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 00-06Z THU PERIOD FOR NOW. LATER CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO ADD
MORE DETAIL AS THE CONSENSUS TIGHTENS. DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT
FROM 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
THRU 400-200MB PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1+ INCH RANGE...AROUND
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 90-100 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND SFC-700MB LOW/TROUGH APPROACH/LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CAPE CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE LIMITED OVER THE AREA OR IN THE
INFLOW AIRMASS LATER WED NIGHT/THU. GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE
FORCING/LIFT...CARRIED A TSRA CHANCE THESE PERIODS.

PRECIP CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGER FORCING/LIFT ROTATE/LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM BY FRI MORNING. SIDED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE WED-THU NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS
A CATEGORY OR 2 BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
ALL THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON
THRU THU MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES
FRI...RETURNING -RA/POTENTIAL -SN AT NIGHT CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 22.00Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH
TO BE PROGRESSIVE FRI AND HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO RISE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. LESSER BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY
SUN/MON AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR FRI/SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SUN/MON.

NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS CYCLE. BETTER
SIGNAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE DOWN THRU THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS MN/WI ON FRI. WITH DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA ON FRI APPEAR REASONABLE FOR NOW. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
PASSES...HGTS START TO RISE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF COOL CAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. MODELS THEN TRY
TO SPREAD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/TROUGHING INTO/OVER THIS
HIGH PRESSURE/SFC RIDGING SAT NIGHT INTO MON. WITH THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN LOOKING RATHER OMEGA-BLOCKY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM FOR
SUN/MON...GFS APPEARS TO SPREAD MOISTURE/PRECIP TOO FAR NORTHEAST
INTO THE RIDGING ON DAYS 6/7. HOWEVER...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -RA /SOME -SN CHANCES DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES IN THE SAT NIGHT THRU MON FCST
GRIDS. TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE FRI-MON PERIOD
GIVEN WHAT WOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF A LARGE CAN
HIGH PARKED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS
FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA.
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THEN WILL LEVEL OFF OR RISE SLIGHTLY AS
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

KRST HAS GONE 192 DAYS WITHOUT REACHING 70F...SINCE OCT 11. GIVEN
THE FCST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS STRING LOOKS TO REMAIN INTACT
INTO AT LEAST THE END OF APRIL. THE LAST TIME A STRING OF DAYS
WITHOUT REACHING 70F WENT THIS LONG WAS THE WINTER SEASON OF
1996-97...194 DAYS. THE RECORD STRING OF DAYS BETWEEN REACHING 70F
AT KRST IS 209...SET IN THE WINTER SEASON OF 1959-60.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....RRS
CLIMATE......RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 220858
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD COOLER AND DRY CANADIAN PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT FOR SOME STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE
VICINITY OF LK SUPERIOR. CONTINUING NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING MID 20S TO MID 30S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...
WHILE CLEAR SKIES/DEEP DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
30S/40S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED WITH 22.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS
THE PATTERN PROGRESSES AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. ECMWF OFFERS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. CHECK
OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL WERE GOOD WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO MN. MODELS ALSO REASONABLE WITH THE DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE REGION. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL APPEARED QUITE GOOD
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. NO ONE MODEL
FAVORITE AND GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...FAVORED
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD AND FAVORING ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER THE OTHERS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE COOLER/DRY CAN HIGH DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HGTS GRADUALLY
RISE/RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. DAY TO START OFF SUNNY...
BUT FOR THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE 850MB WINDS/
TRAJECTORIES SPREAD SOME OF THE LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUDS INTO THE KMDZ AREA. MODELS SPREAD SOME INCREASED 850MB
MOISTURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS
EVIDENT WITH SCT CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR
850MB...FEW-SCT STRATO-CU SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH BEGIN TO ARRIVE.  850MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -6C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AROUND 1
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS/LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT SOME 3F TO
8F BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/
AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FOR THE WED THRU THU NIGHT
PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WED MOVES TO OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THU NIGHT. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DETAIL
DIFFERENCES THU/THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION
BUT THESE LESS THAN EARLIER CYCLES...WITH MODELS TENDING TO FAVOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. WITH THE IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED THRU THU NIGHT PORTION OF THE FCST IS GOOD.

BAND OF RATHER STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND 295-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
LOW/TROUGH SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. RATHER STRONG
850-500MB FN CONVERGENCE SIGNAL SEEN AS WELL. THIS WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING INTO THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE BY LATE WED/WED EVENING.
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORCING/LIFT TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP/OVERCOME THE DRIER SFC TO ROUGHLY
775MB AIRMASS. CONTINUED TO SPREAD 50-70 PERCENT -SHRA CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE 700-500MB FORCING/LIFT...INCLUDED AND ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INITIAL FORCING/LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE FCST AREA WED EVENING...WITH WHAT WOULD BE A 3 TO 6 HR BREAK
FROM THE SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER ROUND OF DEEP FORCING/
LIFT ARRIVES. JUST LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 00-06Z THU PERIOD FOR NOW. LATER CYCLES WILL BE ABLE TO ADD
MORE DETAIL AS THE CONSENSUS TIGHTENS. DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT
FROM 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
THRU 400-200MB PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1+ INCH RANGE...AROUND
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 90-100 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND SFC-700MB LOW/TROUGH APPROACH/LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CAPE CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE LIMITED OVER THE AREA OR IN THE
INFLOW AIRMASS LATER WED NIGHT/THU. GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE
FORCING/LIFT...CARRIED A TSRA CHANCE THESE PERIODS.

PRECIP CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGER FORCING/LIFT ROTATE/LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM BY FRI MORNING. SIDED WITH THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE WED-THU NIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS
A CATEGORY OR 2 BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
ALL THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON
THRU THU MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES
FRI...RETURNING -RA/POTENTIAL -SN AT NIGHT CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU
MON...MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 22.00Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH
TO BE PROGRESSIVE FRI AND HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO RISE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. LESSER BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY
SUN/MON AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR FRI/SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SUN/MON.

NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD THIS CYCLE. BETTER
SIGNAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE DOWN THRU THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS MN/WI ON FRI. WITH DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW...
LINGERING -SHRA CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA ON FRI APPEAR REASONABLE FOR NOW. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
PASSES...HGTS START TO RISE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF COOL CAN HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT. MODELS THEN TRY
TO SPREAD MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW/TROUGHING INTO/OVER THIS
HIGH PRESSURE/SFC RIDGING SAT NIGHT INTO MON. WITH THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN LOOKING RATHER OMEGA-BLOCKY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM FOR
SUN/MON...GFS APPEARS TO SPREAD MOISTURE/PRECIP TOO FAR NORTHEAST
INTO THE RIDGING ON DAYS 6/7. HOWEVER...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -RA /SOME -SN CHANCES DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS/ CHANCES IN THE SAT NIGHT THRU MON FCST
GRIDS. TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE FRI-MON PERIOD
GIVEN WHAT WOULD BE EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF A LARGE CAN
HIGH PARKED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS
FOR DAYS 4-7 LOOK TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MCGREGOR IA.
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THEN WILL LEVEL OFF OR RISE SLIGHTLY AS
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

KRST HAS GONE 192 DAYS WITHOUT REACHING 70F...SINCE OCT 11. GIVEN
THE FCST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS STRING LOOKS TO REMAIN INTACT
INTO AT LEAST THE END OF APRIL. THE LAST TIME A STRING OF DAYS
WITHOUT REACHING 70F WENT THIS LONG WAS THE WINTER SEASON OF
1996-97...194 DAYS. THE RECORD STRING OF DAYS BETWEEN REACHING 70F
AT KRST IS 209...SET IN THE WINTER SEASON OF 1959-60.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY....RRS
CLIMATE......RRS





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