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000
FXUS63 KARX 252331
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTER ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 252331
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTER ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 251923
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 251923
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 251923
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 251923
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET PERIOD UPCOMING WITH WARMING TREND AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE MAIN PLAYERS OF TODAYS
WEATHER WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM...CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR KANSAS CITY MO...AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES /WITH NICE SUBSIDENT SIGNAL/. THE
DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE STREAMS WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
WITH SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
MAJOR RAIN DISSIPATION HAS OCCURRED OVER IOWA IN THE PAST HOURS
PER REGIONAL RADARS.

SOME UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ASSOCIATED WITH A NW-
SE ORIENTED DRY AIR REGION OF 15-20C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /PER
KGRB 12Z RAOB/ IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BECOME
DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
FROM THE N-NE. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND
TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE. BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS THE DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE N-NE
FOR POSSIBLY ENHANCED FIRE DANGERS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION/.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE MODEL SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DOES CONVERGE ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. THE 25.12Z ECMWF IS THE
DEEPEST WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE AND DOES PRODUCE A BIT OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE DYNAMICS A DIRECT HIT ON THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN NORTHCENTRAL WI FOR THIS SYSTEM. A MINOR
WEATHER SYSTEM IT APPEARS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO IMPACT WEATHER. MAJOR LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THE THE PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 20FT WINDS IN THE 10KT OR LESS RANGE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INCLUDE
A DROP TO THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS THRU TUESDAY....WHICH DECREASE MIN
RH VALUES AS WELL /ABOUT 10 PERCENT/. DIFFICULT FORECAST HOWEVER
AS SOIL HAS MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AND THAT WILL PROVIDE A
FLUX OF WATER VAPOR INTO THE AIR TO BATTLE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
WOULD THINK MIN RH VALUES WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 20S.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 251710
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 251710
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BECOME STRONGER ENABLING THE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CLEAR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE EAST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 251427
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY. LATEST 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LATEST FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS DECK CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST METARS REPORTING
CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH A FEW
METARS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 25.06Z GFS/NAM
SUGGEST THE CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF BOTH RST/LSE SITES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z SUNDAY AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 03Z
SUNDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 251427
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IN THE 25.12Z RAP AND 25.13Z HRRR IT APPEARS
ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE RAP INDICATES THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER COULD ALSO ROTATE BACK NORTH
INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO CONFINE THEM TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO LOWERED THEM DOWN FROM THE 60 TO 70 PERCENTS
TO ABOUT 30 OR 40 PERCENT. THE RAP SHOWS ALL THE CAPE REMAINING
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH NO ELEVATED CAPE IN EITHER THE KDBQ OR KBLR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY. LATEST 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LATEST FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS DECK CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST METARS REPORTING
CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH A FEW
METARS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 25.06Z GFS/NAM
SUGGEST THE CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF BOTH RST/LSE SITES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z SUNDAY AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 03Z
SUNDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY. LATEST 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LATEST FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS DECK CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST METARS REPORTING
CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH A FEW
METARS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 25.06Z GFS/NAM
SUGGEST THE CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF BOTH RST/LSE SITES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z SUNDAY AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 03Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 251132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MB/ONT
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY. LATEST 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LATEST FOG SATELLITE
PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS DECK CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST METARS REPORTING
CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE VFR RANGE WITH A FEW
METARS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 25.06Z GFS/NAM
SUGGEST THE CEILING HEIGHTS TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF BOTH RST/LSE SITES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND ALLOWS
SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z SUNDAY AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 03Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 250755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRAIDIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MB/ONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTANT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 250755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN THREAT TODAY. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SPINNING THROUGH KS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADING EAST
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL. MAIN DILEMA IS
HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD SPREAD NORTH AS FAR
AS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THAT
FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE FORCING AND THE INFLUX OF MORE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS SUPPORT A TIGHTER
RAIN/NO-RAIN GRAIDIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY BORNE OUT LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING THE
DIMINISHING TREND. SO MOVED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR
TODAY. RAIN THREAT WILL END BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MB/ONT BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS DRIES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TUMBLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR TYPICAL COOL AREAS OF CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
THANKS TO THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW WHICH PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW
POURING INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK BY LATE IN THE WEEK...PUTTING THE AREA
MORE IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTANT SOUTHERLY
FLOW FINALLY GETS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 250456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 250456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 250456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 250456
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1156 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE LIGHT
RAIN AT KLSE TO DISSIPATE BY 25.08Z. THIS RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 5K RANGE
THROUGH 25.23Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 250249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
949 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 250249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
949 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 250249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
949 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH THE MESO MODELS AND 25.00Z NAM SHOWING A DRAMATIC SOUTHWARD
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEING LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. IF OTHER 25.00Z MODELS FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO DO EVEN FURTHER CUTS TO
THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 242351
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 242351
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 242351
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 242351
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE 800 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST AROUND 25.01Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
25.03Z. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN IFR/MVFR CEILING BE
FOUND AT BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO
ALREADY EXIST...AND THEY ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS A RESULT...JUST
STAYED VFR CEILINGS /3-5K FEET/. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ONCE THE RAIN END.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 241922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 241922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AS WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST U.S. MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS
RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH.

WEAKER INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION. CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL BATTLE THIS. AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING...BULK OF RAIN
SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY THREAT AFTER THAT. THIS
TREND IS SUPPORTED IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

AS STRONGER MAIN WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT...WITH
STRONGER...DEEPER Q-G FORCING...EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORNBELT AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN 24.12Z MODELS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET WHILE SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT KEEPING RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CONSISTENTLY. THIS
WILL MEAN A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALSO BATTLE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

HAVE TRIED TO TIGHTEN THIS RAIN THREAT GRADIENT UP WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA...TO NOTHING
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NIL TO MINIMAL CAPE SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS RAIN
THREAT ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO
NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS U.S. BECOMES FAR MORE MESSY NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE
LOW OFF OF NORTHEAST AND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS COULD
LEAVE OUR REGION IN FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN BETWEEN ALL THIS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK WAVE COULD DRAG COLD FRONT INTO AREA
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MINOR RAIN THREAT BUT BESIDES THAT...MORE SIGNALS
FOR RIDGING AND NICE SPRING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 241800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
100 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 241800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
100 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A REGION OF
SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THESE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 24.15Z HRRR AND 24.18Z NAM...THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST BUT WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GETTING VERY FAR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE DEW POINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE TEENS. PLAN TO SHOW TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS AROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...THE FORCING
BEGINS TO REFOCUS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO IOWA AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD TAKE
MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND WENT BACK TO JUST
VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE GONE DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
MORE TO THE EAST...THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS VFR ONCE THE SHOWERS ARE
OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 241134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST 24.06Z GFS/NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE 24.06Z GFS/NAM
INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 03-04Z SATURDAY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 06Z SATURDAY AT RST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...1200 FEET...AT RST TAF SITE THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 241134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST 24.06Z GFS/NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE 24.06Z GFS/NAM
INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 03-04Z SATURDAY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 06Z SATURDAY AT RST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...1200 FEET...AT RST TAF SITE THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 241134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST 24.06Z GFS/NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE 24.06Z GFS/NAM
INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 03-04Z SATURDAY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 06Z SATURDAY AT RST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...1200 FEET...AT RST TAF SITE THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...DTJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 241134
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE RST/LSE TAF SITES TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST 24.06Z GFS/NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE 24.06Z GFS/NAM
INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 03-04Z SATURDAY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 06Z SATURDAY AT RST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS AT MVFR CONDITIONS...1200 FEET...AT RST TAF SITE THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE
AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 240745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING
OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z
AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 25.03Z. THIS
IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION.......BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 240745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING
OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z
AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 25.03Z. THIS
IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION.......BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 240745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING
OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z
AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 25.03Z. THIS
IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION.......BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 240745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A 500 MB LOW TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z
SAT. THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HOLD WITH THE
TROUGH...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY 00Z SUN. WHILE THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...OTHER
PARTS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

FIRST...STRENGTHENING 900-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC REGION WITH A NICE
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SWATH OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO
EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN WI
TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE
THERMODYNAMICS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR EAST THESE ADVANCE IS IN QUESTION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS POINT TO A LOT OF DRY AIR ACROSS
WI...ACTING AS AN INHIBITOR TO THE RAIN/S EASTWARD MARCH.
THAT...WITH WEAKENING FORCING MAKE CHANCES OVER WESTERN A BIT LESS
COMPARED TO EASTERN MN.

SECOND...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ITS
DEFORMATION REGION WITH SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS IA AND ILL. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE SATURATION FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN. HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AND NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SEEM TO FAVOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT. SOME SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE COULD BE LOST FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME OVERNIGHT...MAKING DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY. GOING TO STICK WITH
RAIN AS THE PTYPE. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY SAT MORNING.

DON/T SEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IF ANY
INSTABILITY...AND WHAT COULD BE THERE IS AWFULLY SKINNY. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW...SO GOING TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
MUCH LESS...AND THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY...INHIBITING ANY
PCPN TYPE FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTION OF BUILDING A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THEN FAVOR A LONG WAVE RIDGE TAKING OVER FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH VARIOUS RIDGE RUNNERS WORKING THROUGH/ACROSS IT.
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE DUBIOUS AT
BEST...BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO DRY FOR THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE SWING BACK TO RIDGING...TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECTING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING
OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z
AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 25.03Z. THIS
IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION.......BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 240451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK
OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF
RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT
KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR
AROUND 25.03Z. THIS IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS.
MEANWHILE KLSE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 240451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A 10 TO 15K DECK
OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF
RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT
KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR
AROUND 25.03Z. THIS IS DELAYED 6 HOURS LATER THAN THE 24.00Z TAFS.
MEANWHILE KLSE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 232347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AS THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
CHANGING, THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A
10 TO 15K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 24.21Z. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 232347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AS THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
CHANGING, THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A
10 TO 15K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 24.21Z. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 232347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AS THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
CHANGING, THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
24.15Z...AND THEN THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KRST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A
10 TO 15K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 4 TO 8K RANGE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
HELP SLOW THE ONSET OF RAIN AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST AROUND 24.15Z AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 24.21Z. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 24.23Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 232005
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING
N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT LOOKS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...OR SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PLAN ON RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN IA. THIS ACTS TO FOCUS/CONFINE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL CARRY SOME SMALLER-END POPS NORTH OF I-94...BUT
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD KEEP THAT AREA PRECIPITATION-FREE OR
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI AS THERMAL PROFILES SHOW
WET BULB ZERO FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR A RAW/RAINY DAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 SATURDAY AS
THAT STACKED LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS IL. EAST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S/NEAR 60.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS
STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

QUIET AND IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE
ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT
MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING
SO INTRODUCED THREAT AT KRST TOWARDS END OF FORECAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 231718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

QUIET AND IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE
ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT
MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING
SO INTRODUCED THREAT AT KRST TOWARDS END OF FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...SHEA
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 231718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

QUIET AND IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE
ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT
MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING
SO INTRODUCED THREAT AT KRST TOWARDS END OF FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...SHEA
FIRE WEATHER...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 231718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

QUIET AND IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE
ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT
MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING
SO INTRODUCED THREAT AT KRST TOWARDS END OF FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...SHEA
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 231718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

QUIET AND IDEAL AVIATION WEATHER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGE IN PLACE AND CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE
ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXPECT
MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING
SO INTRODUCED THREAT AT KRST TOWARDS END OF FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...SHEA
FIRE WEATHER...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 231150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 9 KFT BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 231150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 9 KFT BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 231150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 9 KFT BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 231150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION TONIGHT WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 9 KFT BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 230900
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD TO MO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS AND NEB/IA
BORDER. CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK TO MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER WI AND EASTERN
MN/IA...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WERE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

23.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AHEAD OF STRONGER TROUGHING/ENERGY MOVING INTO/THE WESTERN
CONUS. TREND FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLIER MODELS ON THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...WITH ECMWF HAVING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHORT TERM IS RATHER QUIET THIS CYCLE AS THE
COOL/CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED FROM WESTERN ONT TO IL AT 00Z FRI...THEN OVER LK
SUPERIOR THRU LK MI TO KY BY 12Z FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TODAY...FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 850MB OR A BIT HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS IN 925-850MB PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY TODAY...WINDS
LOOKING TO BE NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
MORNING THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS TODAY 2C TO 3C
WARMER THAN THOSE OF WED...WITH HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S LOOKING TO BE WELL TRENDED. WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE
VERY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT LEE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING REMAINING WEST OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT LATE
TONIGHT DRY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS
WARMER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOWS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LOOKING TO BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING...WHERE WIND TO STAY LIGHT/DECOUPLED AND SKIES CLEAR/ MOSTLY
CLEAR THE LONGEST. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WEST AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES FRI INTO
SAT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THIS PERIOD...BUT BY
00Z SAT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT...THEN MERGES WITH THE NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL
LOW SAT NIGHT. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING BEHIND IT FOR FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ALREADY ON FRI...FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AS THE SFC LOW THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI.
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME MODELS FASTER THAN
OTHERS SPREADING PRECIP INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...AND WHERE THE
HEAVIER OF ANY RAIN MAY FALL. STAYED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH
WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRI...MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF FRI MORNING...
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAISED/CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO. LESSER RAIN CHANCES NORTH/EAST OF
KLSE WHERE DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WIN OUT. CIRCULATION
TIGHTENS SAT WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS IL.
DEEPER MOISTURE/SATURATION AND STRONGER OF FORCING/LIFT PASS ACROSS
THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA. 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA TO DRY IN TAYLOR CO WI SAT
MORNING REASONABLE. SLOWER TREND LINGERS MORE MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA AND RAISED RAIN
CHANCES A BIT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS...USING THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE...FROM FRI THRU SAT LOOKING TO
RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OVER THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LEFT SAT
NIGHT DRY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SFC THRU MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COOLER NIGHT
AGAIN SAT NIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING/BUILD RIDGE AXIS BUT LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND IF SFC WINDS
WITH A MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SFC HIGH CAN DECOUPLE. WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUN THRU WED...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION SUN/MON...AS MORE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
TUE/WED...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS AND PHASING
OR NOT OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN/STREAM ENERGY. TREND FROM 22.00Z IS
TOWARD LESS PHASING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME CONSENSUS FOR WESTERN NOAM RIDGING
AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY
4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO BELOW THIS CYCLE.

SUN/MON TRENDING DRY WITH THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C
TO +5C RANGE SUN/MON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S.
HGTS FALL WILL APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AXES...WITH SOME FORM OF A SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIMITED SIDE...HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE SMALL MODEL CONSENSUS -RA
CHANCES ON TUE-WED. TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED LOOKING TO REMAIN NEAR
THOSE OF SUN/MON...PERHAPS A BIT COOLER IF A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION
ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME-FRAME. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED QUITE REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 24.03Z...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SUNNY AND WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A DRY AIR
MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH FEW OPTIONS FOR INCREASING
THE DEW POINTS TODAY. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR ALOFT...HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 17 TO 27 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS ALOFT IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER MOSTLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE TODAY. WITH THE DEEPER MIXING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE 13-18 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. WITH SOME GREEN-UP ALREADY
OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
NOT BE REACHED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE ABOVE FOR
EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRI THRU SAT WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 230449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S.
INTO ALBERTA. CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH...NICELY SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...HELPING TO HOLD
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS WI. GO A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OVER MN AND
IA...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES OR 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN CLEARER SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEAR SKIES WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THIS RIDGE MAINTAINING A BRISK
NORTHWEST BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. STILL...THE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE EARLIER ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEAST IOWA. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH 850MB TEMPS
IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE...RESULTING IN THE PRESENT 40S
TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30S AT MEDFORD WI.

THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
PROGGED TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGING
AND WARMER/DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MARCH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE TO CONTEND WITH
COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH ITS
MAIN IMPACT IS TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR 12Z THU BEFORE
THE WARMING COMMENCES.

CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...THANKS TO
THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE ANY STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS CLEARING COMBINED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES I-35 BY 12Z THU IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WITH PERHAPS NEAR 30 READINGS IN THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED YET AS
VEGETATION GROWTH IS NOT QUITE THERE. 850MB TEMPS ON THU CLIMB TO 0
TO -2C BY 00Z FRI WHICH WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEDFORD
AGAIN MIGHT BE THE LONE COOLER EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING COLD AIR. DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY AS WELL IN THE DRY AIRMASS
FEATURING PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.10 INCHES...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW VALUES AND A 10 TO 15
MPH NORTHWEST BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STILL HAVE SOME SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A SOMEWHAT DECENT MOISTURE SURGE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...REFLECTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY 00Z SAT.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE MORE
MOISTURE EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO GET
DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION EXISTS ON SATURDAY DUE TO SLIGHT NORTH/SOUTH
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRACK...WITH THE 22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN
FARTHEST NORTH UP TO US-10 AND 22.12Z NAM/ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH TO
AROUND US-20. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON THU.

A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
0-2C...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
IN RIVER VALLEYS. EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
LIKELY TO CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO TANK.

MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEANING TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
THAT...INSTEAD OF HEADING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...NOW DIGS DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...DRYING OUT
THE FORECAST AND RAISING TEMPERATURES.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING
SHORTWAVES TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. AS A
RESULT...SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL
PROGGED IN THE 2-4C RANGE SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOKS TO CHANGE
MUCH FROM MONDAY AND STAY JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 24.03Z...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY A DRYING DAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN
MN AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
DRY AIR OVER WESTERN MN MOVES IN...PLUMMETING RH VALUES TO 20-30
PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME
GREEN-UP ALREADY OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...HAVE DECLINED
TO CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN
REMAINS ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS...WHICH BOTH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOOKING AHEAD...SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCH FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 230449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S.
INTO ALBERTA. CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH...NICELY SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...HELPING TO HOLD
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS WI. GO A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OVER MN AND
IA...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES OR 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN CLEARER SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEAR SKIES WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THIS RIDGE MAINTAINING A BRISK
NORTHWEST BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. STILL...THE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE EARLIER ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEAST IOWA. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH 850MB TEMPS
IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE...RESULTING IN THE PRESENT 40S
TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30S AT MEDFORD WI.

THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
PROGGED TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGING
AND WARMER/DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MARCH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE TO CONTEND WITH
COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH ITS
MAIN IMPACT IS TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR 12Z THU BEFORE
THE WARMING COMMENCES.

CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...THANKS TO
THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE ANY STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS CLEARING COMBINED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES I-35 BY 12Z THU IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WITH PERHAPS NEAR 30 READINGS IN THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED YET AS
VEGETATION GROWTH IS NOT QUITE THERE. 850MB TEMPS ON THU CLIMB TO 0
TO -2C BY 00Z FRI WHICH WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEDFORD
AGAIN MIGHT BE THE LONE COOLER EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING COLD AIR. DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY AS WELL IN THE DRY AIRMASS
FEATURING PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.10 INCHES...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW VALUES AND A 10 TO 15
MPH NORTHWEST BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STILL HAVE SOME SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A SOMEWHAT DECENT MOISTURE SURGE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...REFLECTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY 00Z SAT.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE MORE
MOISTURE EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO GET
DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION EXISTS ON SATURDAY DUE TO SLIGHT NORTH/SOUTH
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRACK...WITH THE 22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN
FARTHEST NORTH UP TO US-10 AND 22.12Z NAM/ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH TO
AROUND US-20. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON THU.

A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
0-2C...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
IN RIVER VALLEYS. EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
LIKELY TO CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO TANK.

MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEANING TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
THAT...INSTEAD OF HEADING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...NOW DIGS DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...DRYING OUT
THE FORECAST AND RAISING TEMPERATURES.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING
SHORTWAVES TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. AS A
RESULT...SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL
PROGGED IN THE 2-4C RANGE SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOKS TO CHANGE
MUCH FROM MONDAY AND STAY JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 24.03Z...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY A DRYING DAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN
MN AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
DRY AIR OVER WESTERN MN MOVES IN...PLUMMETING RH VALUES TO 20-30
PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME
GREEN-UP ALREADY OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...HAVE DECLINED
TO CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN
REMAINS ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS...WHICH BOTH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOOKING AHEAD...SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCH FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 230449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S.
INTO ALBERTA. CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH...NICELY SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...HELPING TO HOLD
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS WI. GO A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OVER MN AND
IA...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES OR 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN CLEARER SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEAR SKIES WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THIS RIDGE MAINTAINING A BRISK
NORTHWEST BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. STILL...THE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE EARLIER ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEAST IOWA. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH 850MB TEMPS
IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE...RESULTING IN THE PRESENT 40S
TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30S AT MEDFORD WI.

THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
PROGGED TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGING
AND WARMER/DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MARCH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE TO CONTEND WITH
COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH ITS
MAIN IMPACT IS TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR 12Z THU BEFORE
THE WARMING COMMENCES.

CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...THANKS TO
THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE ANY STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS CLEARING COMBINED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES I-35 BY 12Z THU IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WITH PERHAPS NEAR 30 READINGS IN THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED YET AS
VEGETATION GROWTH IS NOT QUITE THERE. 850MB TEMPS ON THU CLIMB TO 0
TO -2C BY 00Z FRI WHICH WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEDFORD
AGAIN MIGHT BE THE LONE COOLER EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING COLD AIR. DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY AS WELL IN THE DRY AIRMASS
FEATURING PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.10 INCHES...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW VALUES AND A 10 TO 15
MPH NORTHWEST BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STILL HAVE SOME SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A SOMEWHAT DECENT MOISTURE SURGE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...REFLECTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY 00Z SAT.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE MORE
MOISTURE EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO GET
DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION EXISTS ON SATURDAY DUE TO SLIGHT NORTH/SOUTH
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRACK...WITH THE 22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN
FARTHEST NORTH UP TO US-10 AND 22.12Z NAM/ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH TO
AROUND US-20. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON THU.

A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
0-2C...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
IN RIVER VALLEYS. EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
LIKELY TO CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO TANK.

MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEANING TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
THAT...INSTEAD OF HEADING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...NOW DIGS DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...DRYING OUT
THE FORECAST AND RAISING TEMPERATURES.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING
SHORTWAVES TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. AS A
RESULT...SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL
PROGGED IN THE 2-4C RANGE SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOKS TO CHANGE
MUCH FROM MONDAY AND STAY JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 24.03Z...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY A DRYING DAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN
MN AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
DRY AIR OVER WESTERN MN MOVES IN...PLUMMETING RH VALUES TO 20-30
PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME
GREEN-UP ALREADY OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...HAVE DECLINED
TO CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN
REMAINS ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS...WHICH BOTH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOOKING AHEAD...SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCH FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 230449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED UPPER TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S.
INTO ALBERTA. CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH...NICELY SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...HELPING TO HOLD
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS WI. GO A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OVER MN AND
IA...MUCH DRIER AIR WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES OR 36 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN CLEARER SKIES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEAR SKIES WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THIS RIDGE MAINTAINING A BRISK
NORTHWEST BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. STILL...THE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE EARLIER ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEAST IOWA. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH 850MB TEMPS
IN THE -5 TO -8C RANGE...RESULTING IN THE PRESENT 40S
TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30S AT MEDFORD WI.

THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
PROGGED TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGING
AND WARMER/DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MARCH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DO HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE TO CONTEND WITH
COMING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH ITS
MAIN IMPACT IS TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR 12Z THU BEFORE
THE WARMING COMMENCES.

CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...THANKS TO
THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE ANY STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS CLEARING COMBINED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES I-35 BY 12Z THU IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WITH PERHAPS NEAR 30 READINGS IN THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED YET AS
VEGETATION GROWTH IS NOT QUITE THERE. 850MB TEMPS ON THU CLIMB TO 0
TO -2C BY 00Z FRI WHICH WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEDFORD
AGAIN MIGHT BE THE LONE COOLER EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING COLD AIR. DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY AS WELL IN THE DRY AIRMASS
FEATURING PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 0.10 INCHES...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW VALUES AND A 10 TO 15
MPH NORTHWEST BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STILL HAVE SOME SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A SOMEWHAT DECENT MOISTURE SURGE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...REFLECTED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY 00Z SAT.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE MORE
MOISTURE EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...
CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO GET
DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION EXISTS ON SATURDAY DUE TO SLIGHT NORTH/SOUTH
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER TROUGH TRACK...WITH THE 22.12Z GFS/CANADIAN
FARTHEST NORTH UP TO US-10 AND 22.12Z NAM/ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH TO
AROUND US-20. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON THU.

A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
0-2C...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S
IN RIVER VALLEYS. EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
LIKELY TO CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO TANK.

MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEANING TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
THAT...INSTEAD OF HEADING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...NOW DIGS DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...DRYING OUT
THE FORECAST AND RAISING TEMPERATURES.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING
SHORTWAVES TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY FLOW. AS A
RESULT...SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...850MB TEMPS ARE STILL
PROGGED IN THE 2-4C RANGE SO TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOKS TO CHANGE
MUCH FROM MONDAY AND STAY JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 24.03Z...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY A DRYING DAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN
MN AND WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
DRY AIR OVER WESTERN MN MOVES IN...PLUMMETING RH VALUES TO 20-30
PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME
GREEN-UP ALREADY OCCURRING AND THE LIGHTER WINDS...HAVE DECLINED
TO CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN
REMAINS ON TAP TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS...WHICH BOTH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOOKING AHEAD...SUNDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY WORTH WATCH FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





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