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000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 221950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS AT KRST AND
16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING
THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z.
THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 221513
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 221125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 220852
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 211955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 211738
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 210819
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 210819
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 210359
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 210359
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 210359
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 210359
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 202322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

AREAS OF VFR CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF WI EARLY THIS EVENING...SPARING
THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE IT WAS CLEAR AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT A LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST OF A SFC LOW WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS FROM MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THAT SAID...850 MB
WINDS VEER TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD PUSH THE NORTHWEST REACH OF THE CLOUDS TOWARD KLSE. WILL KEEP
SKC FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...GRADUALLY BECOMING EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT. NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SIMILAR
FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. IF A
DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 202322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

AREAS OF VFR CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF WI EARLY THIS EVENING...SPARING
THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE IT WAS CLEAR AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT A LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL SHIFT EAST OF A SFC LOW WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS FROM MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THAT SAID...850 MB
WINDS VEER TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD PUSH THE NORTHWEST REACH OF THE CLOUDS TOWARD KLSE. WILL KEEP
SKC FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNDOWN...GRADUALLY BECOMING EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT. NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SIMILAR
FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. IF A
DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 202034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENSIVE VFR CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC THIS EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 202034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...INCREASED TEMPERATURES FRI-SUN.

THIS IS A NO/LOW WEATHER IMPACT FORECAST. WE ARE GETTING A BIT
BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ALSO INVESTIGATED WEEKEND WARM UP AND RIDGE
BUILDING...WITH GOOD SIGNAL NOW FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM FRI-SUN /10F+/.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA...
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH UPSTREAM HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY
EAST. 250 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER 40M/12HR OVER SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING..AND ALSO WIDESPREAD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER POOL OF AIR
SUB-INVERSION LEVEL...AND EAST OF THE STRONGEST FRONTAL REGION AT
850 MB /1-5C BAND/. LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP SUB-INVERSION
LEVEL THERE...AND HAVE SEEN SOME SHRA IN NRN WI. CLOUDS PRETTY
CELLULAR SW OF I-94...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD REIGN WITH CLOUD MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. THERE IS
SOME WEAK SIGNAL IN THE SREF DATA FOR SOME CLOUD FRAGMENTS TO
SURGE WESTWARD AGAIN IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THOSE YET IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...AND THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE FOR A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNALS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15KFT
AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY ITEM OUTSTANDING TO PREVENT AREAS OR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A SIGNAL FOR A BIT HIGHER WIND AT
INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IF THE VALLEY
DECOUPLES...THIS LIKELY WILL NOT PREVENT THE FOG.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT LEAST
EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...PRIOR TO WEAKENING. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE MOIST PLUME OF OVER 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND EVEN 50-100 J/KG OF ELEVATED MU CAPE ALL SUGGEST A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THAT WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING.
THESE ELEMENTS ARE AGREED ON WITH THE 20.12Z DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/EC/AND CANADIAN RUNS. THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE CATCHING ON.

SO...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED EVE IN
THE WEST...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WONT NEED MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/DZ.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. MAINLY A LOW RAINFALL AMOUNT EVENT...MAYBE
1/4 INCH.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...

THE MAIN STORY SEEMS TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE FRONTAL SURGES ARE NUMEROUS DURING THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO OFFER SOME WARM SECTORS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES HAS INCREASED TOO WITH THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INCREASING. TODAY AT KLSE IT
WAS 8C AT 925MB AND AT LEAST 65F...ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY 925MB
WARMS TO A 20.12Z GFS/ECMWF MEAN OF 14C...SO IT SEEMS 70S ARE
WELL WITHIN REACH. THE 20.00Z NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL ARE IN THE 1-2
STANDARDIZED DEVIATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES...BUT AM THINKING THIS WILL INCREASE WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THIS MORNING. THE SIGNAL
IS STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF. SO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOSE DAYS...WITH MOS DEFINITELY TOO LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENSIVE VFR CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC THIS EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 75-80F RANGE AT LSE
AND RST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN THOSE VALUES...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MIXING DEPTH AND SKY COVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 201705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENSIVE VFR CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC THIS EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 201705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENSIVE VFR CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC THIS EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON VFR/SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 201132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A 2500 TO 3500 FOOT BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 20.12Z
AND 20.17Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY GET INTO KLSE AROUND
20.16Z AND THEN REMAIN IN THE KLSE AREA THROUGH 21.03Z. MEANWHILE
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE KRST WILL BE TOO FAR WEST SO ONLY HAVE A
SCATTERED 3500 FOOT DECK FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING...EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 201132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A 2500 TO 3500 FOOT BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 20.12Z
AND 20.17Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY GET INTO KLSE AROUND
20.16Z AND THEN REMAIN IN THE KLSE AREA THROUGH 21.03Z. MEANWHILE
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE KRST WILL BE TOO FAR WEST SO ONLY HAVE A
SCATTERED 3500 FOOT DECK FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING...EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 200812
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 200812
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LATEST FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT INDICATING STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO CANADA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925-850MB PER THE 20.00Z NAM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

THE LATEST 20.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z GFS/NAM INITIALIZE THE STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK
WELL PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND THE 925-850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. BOTH OF THE MODELS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THEN THE CONCERN
IS WHEN THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS ERODES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THE 20.00Z NAM INDICATES THE 925-850MB MOISTURE
EVAPORATES...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 20.00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT LA CROSSE WISCONSIN INDICATES OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND AT AND ABOVE
THE SURFACE AT 200-400 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND MAY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST
20.00Z GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 20.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 20.00Z
NAM/GEM. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WITH THE DPROG/DT OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ALL
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT/CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WEAKENS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW...THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
20.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
FORECAST THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 200446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.

WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.

COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 200446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR KINL. THE FRONT THEN
EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO LAKE WINNIPEG AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD
AIR EAST. THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE
TROPOPAUSE FOLDS DOWN TO NEARLY 750 MB /PER RAP ANALYSIS/...PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURL IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WI 20Z. THE MAIN WATER VAPOR SIGNAL IS VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FIRST TROUGH...NOT MAKING IT EASY FOR FOR THE STRONGER
LAKE WINNIPEG TROUGH TO CREATE PRECIPITATION ALONE WITHOUT LOW-
LEVEL HELP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SRN
CANADA IS EAST OF THE FRONT AND CYCLONE IN VERY LOW CLOUD. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.

WILL BE CLEARING THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST EAST IN THE NEXT
HOURS...AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE WI SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY IN THIS FORCING /PER KMPX AND KGRB 12Z
RAOBS/...BUT SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM IN MID-
LEVELS IS CAUSING 10KFT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ONLY HIT AND MISS
SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND.

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THIS EVENING AND CYCLONE
WILL PASS THROUGH THRU GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPER LIFT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE TRACK - MORE FOR THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE FORCING COMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTS NO
WEATHER.

COLD AIR PUSH DIVES INTO WISCONSIN AND GREAT LAKES POST-LOW ON
MONDAY..BRINGING LOWER OVERCAST WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL LIE UP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOW CAPE
EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI. THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
NRN-ERN WI MONDAY...HAVE NOT ADD THOSE TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD
WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SOME SUGGESTION OF WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE LIMITING. WILL ADD PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOTICEABLE DROP AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SEEN IN
THE SPREAD OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN...COMPLEX READJUSTMENT IS OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL RIDGING.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
SOME WEAK FORCING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE CONTINUED UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE BUILT IN THE SIGNAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY 6-12KTS WITH WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING ALLOWING FOR SOME 20KT GUSTS AT KRST DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. QUIET/SKC VFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z
THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. LEFT KRST WITH SCT STRATO-CU
CLOUDS MON WHILE KLSE LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A BKN-SCT VFR CLOUD DECK
MUCH OF MON. SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE TO THIN WITH SOME STRONGER 925-
700MB SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON EVENING. WILL SCATTER
OUT THE CLOUDS AT KLSE AFTER 23Z FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN WEAK CYCLONIC
925MB FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO...
AND A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DECREASE
OF CLOUDS MON EVENING IS AVERAGE AT BEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS





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