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000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 050815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS
BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF BEING TOO
STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 050815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS
BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF BEING TOO
STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 050450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY
FOG AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY
FOG WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR.
WITH THIS BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF
BEING TOO STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 050450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY
FOG AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY
FOG WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR.
WITH THIS BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF
BEING TOO STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 041956
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION PRODUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE 5 TO 6 SM RANGE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL PROVIDING QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 041956
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION PRODUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE 5 TO 6 SM RANGE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL PROVIDING QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 041750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION PRODUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE 5 TO 6 SM RANGE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL PROVIDING QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 041117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

INITIALLY WILL BE DEALING WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL IMPACT KLSE THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z...BURNING OFF SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR GENERALLY HAZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AS CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SEND SMOKE PARTICULATES OUR
WAY. THESE PARTICULATES LOOK TO PARTIALLY MIX WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-5SM HZ. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TAKING THESE HAZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 041117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

INITIALLY WILL BE DEALING WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL IMPACT KLSE THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z...BURNING OFF SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR GENERALLY HAZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AS CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SEND SMOKE PARTICULATES OUR
WAY. THESE PARTICULATES LOOK TO PARTIALLY MIX WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-5SM HZ. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TAKING THESE HAZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 041117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

INITIALLY WILL BE DEALING WITH STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL IMPACT KLSE THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z...BURNING OFF SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR GENERALLY HAZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AS CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SEND SMOKE PARTICULATES OUR
WAY. THESE PARTICULATES LOOK TO PARTIALLY MIX WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-5SM HZ. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TAKING THESE HAZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 040732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE VISIBILITIES TO 4
STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 040732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH
OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED
FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR
ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING
WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY.

THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR
SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE.
ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF
SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK
THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST
WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN
WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG
AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO
SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO
GET THINGS GOING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500
J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY-
SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED
OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE.

MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION
SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS
RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE VISIBILITIES TO 4
STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS
APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/
URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF
THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT
2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
VISIBILITIES TO 4 STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
VISIBILITIES TO 4 STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
VISIBILITIES TO 4 STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS
EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE
SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
VISIBILITIES TO 4 STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 032350
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IS SHOWING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4 TO 8K DECK
OF CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE IN THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04.08Z AND 04.18Z...AND THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THE LIGHT WINDS ONLY EXTEND UP
TO 5K FEET. THIS SOME CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT WIND DEPTH BEING LESS
NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT FOG AFFECTING KLSE. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH
IN THE KICKAPOO AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS...THE THE LIGHT WINDS
EXTEND UP TO 10K FEET...THUS...WILL LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THESE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 04.09Z AND 04.14Z.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SMOKE FROM THE ALASKA AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE
WILD FIRES. THIS SMOKE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING ATH THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES WILL NOT MAKE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER ALOFT THE SMOKE CONCENTRATION WILL BE
INCREASING ON JULY 4TH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 032350
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND STALL JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IS SHOWING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4 TO 8K DECK
OF CLOUDS ALONG THIS FRONT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE IN THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04.08Z AND 04.18Z...AND THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THE LIGHT WINDS ONLY EXTEND UP
TO 5K FEET. THIS SOME CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT WIND DEPTH BEING LESS
NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT FOG AFFECTING KLSE. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH
IN THE KICKAPOO AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS...THE THE LIGHT WINDS
EXTEND UP TO 10K FEET...THUS...WILL LIKELY SEE VALLEY FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THESE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 04.09Z AND 04.14Z.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SMOKE FROM THE ALASKA AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE
WILD FIRES. THIS SMOKE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING ATH THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES WILL NOT MAKE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER ALOFT THE SMOKE CONCENTRATION WILL BE
INCREASING ON JULY 4TH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 032009
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04





000
FXUS63 KARX 032009
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS
TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST
SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE
SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
EARLY JULY.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY
SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE
THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON
DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH
1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER
ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING.

BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST
WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS
OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES.

03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH
THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT
DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA
MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH
RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM
NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE
CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C
TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A
FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE
MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE
FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY.
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD
70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK
WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL.
PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA
ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES
DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK
OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN
HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU
FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY
TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED
NIGHT THRU FRI.

CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING
BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT
OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE
LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK
TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU
FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04




000
FXUS63 KARX 031708
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 031708
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF
EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING
TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION
WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 031229
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KLSE TO LIFT
BETWEEN 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031229
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KLSE TO LIFT
BETWEEN 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 031229
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KLSE TO LIFT
BETWEEN 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031229
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXPECT LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KLSE TO LIFT
BETWEEN 14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 031125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN
10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN
10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN WI/CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL BE TIED TO THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KLSE/KRST TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LESS THAN
10KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 030717
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 030717
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 030717
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 030717
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY
OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK
COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER
INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM
PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T
GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE.

BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER
TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE
WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT
TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM.
WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE
INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A
RELATIVELY WET DAY.

TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY
6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK
TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK
IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO
WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME
NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 030454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE
AREA. SOME NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...2. CLOUIDS ARE CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A
SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 030454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE
AREA. SOME NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME...2. CLOUIDS ARE CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A
SHORT NIGHT.

FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN
TACT FOR NOW.

IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO
VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND
03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 022336
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG WILL
IMPACT THE BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS FOG WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN
03.10Z AND 03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 022336
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG WILL
IMPACT THE BOGS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS FOG WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND
KICKAPOO VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN
03.10Z AND 03.13Z.

OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 022014
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 022014
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT EARLY FRI MORNING...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LK MI
WITH RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS WI/SOUTHERN MN. SKIES RANGED FROM SUNNY
OVER NORTHEAST WI NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND UNDER
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MO RIVER. TEMPS
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY WITH MOST EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

02.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ONE OF THESE WAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...ANOTHER TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI/FRI EVENING WITH
ONE MORE INTO SD BY 12Z SAT. TREND GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF
THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA REMAINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST-WEST NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER TO LOWER MI. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS UP TO 500MB TONIGHT...QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN THE 06Z-13Z PERI0D. SFC
OBS SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF WED AT
THIS TIME. PREVIOUS GRID-SET ALREADY HAD VALLEY FOG IN THE 07Z-13Z
PERIOD AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI/FRI EVENING DRAGS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
THEN INTO THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA LATER FRI AFTERNOON/FRI
EVENING. INSTABILITY ALL BUT GONE BY LATE FRI EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE FORCING/LIFT LEFT OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRI NIGHT DRY EVEN AS
THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA. FAVORED
COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SAT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH STRONGER APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT SUN
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE EAST SAT/SAT NIGHT. TREND WEAKENS IT AS IT IS PUSHED EAST
INTO THE RIDGING/RISING HGTS ALOFT OVER MN/WI IA...AHEAD OF STRONGER
TROUGHING MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. HGTS RISE YET SUN MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO FALL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A PORTION OF THE
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHED INTO THE RIDGING SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE
TRENDS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WITH A TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS THRU THE PERIOD...
SAT THRU SUN NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE AS WELL.

SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT IS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA SAT. INSTABILITY BUILDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY...SOME WEAK BUT INCREASING SOUTH FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPANDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED TO EXTEND THIS SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING
BUT STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY
SAT EVENING. HGTS RISE SAT NIGHT/SUN. MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING SAT THRU SUN...WITH LOWER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. REMOVED SMALL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM SUNDAY. WITH THE SLOWING TREND OF THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT ONLY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO
EASTERN SD AT 00Z MONDAY...LIMITED SMALL SUNDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. REDUCED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL...AND LIMITED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT AND SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
WITH A DRIER TREND FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 22-24C RANGE...TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUN.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH PASSING
FRONT MON INTO TUE AND AGAIN THU...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 02.00Z/02.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON ON A
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. TREND IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. BY TUE TREND ND DECENT CONSENSUS
FAVORS MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/MAIN
ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD FOR ZONAL
FLOW/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WED WITH 02.12Z MODELS NOW
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA WED.
TROUGHING DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUE INTO THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN
AVERAGE WED/THU.

TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON WITH AT LEAST A MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-75
PERCENT RANGE MON INTO MON EVENING APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. FRONTAL TIMING WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DETAILS OF CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THE MID TROUGH TRENDING
PROGRESSIVE TUE ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON TUE LOOKS TO BE
EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH DRIER/COOLER/MORE STABLE CAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MUCH OF TUE THRU WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. DUE TO THE
LESSER CONFIDENCE BY WED-THU...WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WED NIGHT/THU AS IS FOR NOW.

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU OKAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE
OF THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...WHILE TUE NIGHT LOWS MAY BE TOO
WARM WITH THE COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 021722
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY
FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE 02.00Z BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/TRIBUTARIES AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NEXT CONCERN ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/IMPULSE AND THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY...THE 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT...AS THE
02.00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 02.00Z NAM/ECMWF. THE NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY THAN FRIDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WHAT
COULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WILL BE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 02.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 02.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS THE
02.00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 02.00Z GFS/GEM...HENCE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FEATURES/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 021722
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY
FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE 02.00Z BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/TRIBUTARIES AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NEXT CONCERN ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/IMPULSE AND THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY...THE 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT...AS THE
02.00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 02.00Z NAM/ECMWF. THE NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY THAN FRIDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WHAT
COULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WILL BE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 02.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 02.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS THE
02.00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 02.00Z GFS/GEM...HENCE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FEATURES/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 021722
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY
FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE 02.00Z BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/TRIBUTARIES AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NEXT CONCERN ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/IMPULSE AND THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY...THE 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT...AS THE
02.00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 02.00Z NAM/ECMWF. THE NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY THAN FRIDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WHAT
COULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WILL BE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 02.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 02.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS THE
02.00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 02.00Z GFS/GEM...HENCE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FEATURES/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 021722
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY
FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE 02.00Z BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/TRIBUTARIES AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NEXT CONCERN ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/IMPULSE AND THE 02.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY...THE 02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM SUGGEST WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT...AS THE
02.00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 02.00Z NAM/ECMWF. THE NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY THAN FRIDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WHAT
COULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WILL BE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 02.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 02.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS THE
02.00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 02.00Z GFS/GEM...HENCE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FEATURES/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
02.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH CIRRUS WITH THE BULK OF
IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BOTH AIRFIELDS...AND THE VEIL
OF SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AT KLSE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP REGION OF LIGHT WINDS...EXTENDING UP TO 20KFT. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES POINT TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY
FOG. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT THIS WAS OVERCOME LAST NIGHT...AND FEEL THIS
SCENARIO WILL REPEAT. THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A PERIOD OF
1/2SM FG FOR KLSE EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW




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