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000
FXUS63 KARX 010402
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 010402
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 312302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 312302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 312302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 312302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS...
EXPECT A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS MOVING IN WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
00Z THU. COULD DROP INTO MVFR WITH THE FRONT SPAWNED SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY/MID EVENING WED.

WINDS...
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE MIXING...AND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS AT KRST ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS OR GUSTS FROM STORMS
IN THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS KRST AROUND 06Z...CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE.

RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A SHORT WINDOW OF LLWS
POTENTIAL AT KRST BETWEEN 12-15Z. SFC WINDS ARE RAMPING UP BY THAT
TIME ALREADY...AND ITS BORDERLINE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. KLSE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AVOID LLWS CONCERNS.

WX/VSBY...
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS EARLY WED EVENING. THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. PROBABLY A HIGHER THREAT
AT KRST THEN KLSE. MAY ONLY WARRANT A -SHRA VCTS. CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
GUSTINESS AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 312052
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 312052
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 312052
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 312052
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD ARE WARMING CONDITIONS WITH DEEPER
MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...MAINLY AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER DAY WITH THOSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

GOOD HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHERE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN /150M 12HR FALLS AT 500MB PER
RAOBS/. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY.
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE DAKOTAS AND WEST ARE IN THE 2-3MB/3 HR AHEAD
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...THE RAIN MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP
IN THE LATER MORNING PER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MIXING DEPTH WILL
INCREASE TO 3-4KFT /900 MB/ BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH 35-40 KTS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...PUSHING WIND/GUST SPEEDS IN THE NEAR-
ADVISORY CATEGORY...25 TO 40 MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT ANY UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AND
AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SERN MN...WE WILL ASSESS THIS
OVERNIGHT.

BELIEVE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CIRRUS
SHIELD I-90 AND NORTH...WHICH COULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NERN
IA AND SWRN WI. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED
WED HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 3-4F...AND 2-3F ELSEWHERE BASED ON
EXPECTED SUN...925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-7C FROM TODAY TO
WEDNESDAY...AND GRADIENT/WINDS FOR GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRECIPITATION CONSENSUS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ON A NARROW MOIST PLUME NEAR
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MEANS WAINING INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION TOO HOW THE MOIST POOL NOW IN OK/AR WILL ADVECT
NORTH...AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS. CURRENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...SO HAVE FAVORED A TEMPERED
DEWPOINT RETURN AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY WOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PER TIMING AND MOISTURE
RETURN. HAVE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS I-90 AND SOUTH AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOST VIVACIOUS AND DESIRE A PROPAGATION
VECTOR TOWARD THE MOIST SOURCE /IOWA/. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
/CAMS/ GENERALLY MIGRATE TO A SHOWERY COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS ONLY A MILD POLAR FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED AND A
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETURN. MIXING WILL AGAIN BE DEEP ON THURSDAY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR CONCERNS THURSDAY. COLDER ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLS TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 15-20F FOR FRIDAY.

A SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY WITH SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ARE AGREED UPON WELL IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FROM 31.12Z. THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN UNDER THE NW FLOW SPLIT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
CONFLUENT FLOW COULD BRING SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS TOO.

SOME INDICATIONS EXIST FOR A TRANSITION TO A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BE A RAINIER PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WITH DRY FUELS AND SOME WINDS TODAY...IOWA HAS HAD SOME ISSUES
WITH FIRES TODAY. SPECIFICALLY...LOSING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED
BURNS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 30S...MAKES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE
OVER 50 /EXTREME/ IN IOWA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH
THERE...EXCEPT MISS RIVER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT LESS.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NEED A RED FLAG WATCH IN MN FOR THESE CONDITIONS
BASED ON BURN ACTIVITY TODAY AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO KNOCK
DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEEPLY
MIX TO POSSIBLY 5KFT. WITH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANOTHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 311718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAN ON SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP AROUND 25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT AT KRST AND 15KT
GUSTING NEAR 25KT AT KLSE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AFTER 14Z...SO VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING FURTHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT
INTO THIS WITH THE 01.00/01.06Z TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY. THIS FOG HAS CREPT INTO KLSE AND WAS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET INTO KRST FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 31.09Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THIS FOG TO LIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DECENT LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN THE MIXED LAYER. THE
31.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 311115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY. THIS FOG HAS CREPT INTO KLSE AND WAS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET INTO KRST FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 31.09Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THIS FOG TO LIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DECENT LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN THE MIXED LAYER. THE
31.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 311115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY. THIS FOG HAS CREPT INTO KLSE AND WAS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET INTO KRST FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 31.09Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THIS FOG TO LIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DECENT LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN THE MIXED LAYER. THE
31.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 310811
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.06Z. PRIMARY
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS. DO NOT
EXPECT PROBLEMS/REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KRST/KLSE GIVEN 31.04Z DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 PLUS DEGREES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 310811
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.06Z. PRIMARY
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS. DO NOT
EXPECT PROBLEMS/REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KRST/KLSE GIVEN 31.04Z DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 PLUS DEGREES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 310811
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS  THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS  WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.06Z. PRIMARY
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS. DO NOT
EXPECT PROBLEMS/REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KRST/KLSE GIVEN 31.04Z DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 PLUS DEGREES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 310442
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.06Z. PRIMARY
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS. DO NOT
EXPECT PROBLEMS/REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KRST/KLSE GIVEN 31.04Z DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 PLUS DEGREES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 302343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.00Z.
VFR CLOUD DECK/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI WILL SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING KEEPING THE TAF SITES DRY. BIGGER
CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION...ALBEIT SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL/IN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WILL OCCUR
MORE QUICKLY AT KRST THAN KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 302343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.00Z.
VFR CLOUD DECK/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI WILL SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING KEEPING THE TAF SITES DRY. BIGGER
CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION...ALBEIT SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL/IN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WILL OCCUR
MORE QUICKLY AT KRST THAN KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 302343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.00Z.
VFR CLOUD DECK/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI WILL SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING KEEPING THE TAF SITES DRY. BIGGER
CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION...ALBEIT SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL/IN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WILL OCCUR
MORE QUICKLY AT KRST THAN KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 302343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 01.00Z.
VFR CLOUD DECK/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WI WILL SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING KEEPING THE TAF SITES DRY. BIGGER
CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION...ALBEIT SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN IL/IN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WILL OCCUR
MORE QUICKLY AT KRST THAN KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 302016
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS ON THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IR/RAP ANALYSIS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED NEAR FARGO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FRONT WHERE THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PUSHING UP INTO. ALL OF THE
MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THAT WAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NOT BEEN
ADVANCING MUCH TO THE EAST...SO THE WARM AIR SHOULD MAINLY STAY
WHERE IT IS NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG IT.

THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WHEN
THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER
THAT OCCURS.

THE TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPEED UP ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP.

AS FOR THE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OPEN UP WITH SOME STRONG MOISTURE FLOW
PUSHING UP TOWARD THE SURFACE FRONT. THE 30.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN A NARROW RIBBON UP TOWARD THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY AND THEN SWINGING IT
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TROPICAL/MOIST PROFILE WITH
SKINNY CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
ALSO IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WITH WINDS GOING FROM AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE TO 40KTS AROUND 1KM. FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS JUST LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH WITH PWS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
DEEP SHEAR.

BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL GIVEN THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL. THE 30.12Z GFS IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH HAVING SOME SYSTEMS MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SET ON BUILDING A
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP A 7K TO 12K DECK OF CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 31.02Z AND
AT KLSE AROUND 31.05Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 30.19Z AND 30.21Z...AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 31.02Z AND
31.05Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 301746
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP A 7K TO 12K DECK OF CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 31.02Z AND
AT KLSE AROUND 31.05Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 30.19Z AND 30.21Z...AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 31.02Z AND
31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 301746
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP A 7K TO 12K DECK OF CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 31.02Z AND
AT KLSE AROUND 31.05Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 30.19Z AND 30.21Z...AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 31.02Z AND
31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 301746
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP A 7K TO 12K DECK OF CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 31.02Z AND
AT KLSE AROUND 31.05Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 30.19Z AND 30.21Z...AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 31.02Z AND
31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 301746
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP A 7K TO 12K DECK OF CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 31.02Z AND
AT KLSE AROUND 31.05Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 30.19Z AND 30.21Z...AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 31.02Z AND
31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 301120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 30.06Z NAM SUGGESTS ALL THE PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL MOVE PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH BUT THAT
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES BUT THERE WILL BE AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THAT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. THE QG
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A VFR CEILING
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE
REGION THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 301120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 30.06Z NAM SUGGESTS ALL THE PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL MOVE PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH BUT THAT
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES BUT THERE WILL BE AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THAT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. THE QG
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A VFR CEILING
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE
REGION THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 301120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 30.06Z NAM SUGGESTS ALL THE PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL MOVE PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH BUT THAT
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES BUT THERE WILL BE AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THAT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. THE QG
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A VFR CEILING
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE
REGION THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 301120
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN
THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 30.06Z NAM SUGGESTS ALL THE PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL MOVE PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH BUT THAT
SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES BUT THERE WILL BE AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THAT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. THE QG
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SATURATION TO OCCUR BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A VFR CEILING
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST THE
REGION THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 300833
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECWMF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 300833
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FOCUS THE TURNS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING SET TO DROP
SOUTHEAST  INTO THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT  OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ECWMF BRINGS THE MOST PRECIPITATION  TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION BRINGING RAIN TO
MOST OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NAM AND GFS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION  MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND APPROACH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
BETTER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON  AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY VERSES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON . A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE SETTING UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO EVENTUALLY BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AHEAD O THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF CLIMB TO 200 TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
CAPE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT EASY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO THE UPPER 60S A COOL
DOWN IS IN STORE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 60S FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 300447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 300447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 300447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 31.06Z. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING AS A
WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MN/WI. LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE AT KLSE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SECONDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 292325
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
6000 TO 7000 FT AGL LAYER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 292325
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
6000 TO 7000 FT AGL LAYER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF CURRENT TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE/TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 292008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 292008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS





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