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000
FXUS63 KARX 060829
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE VERY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MO WHILE LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. THIS WAS PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL WI
TO 60 DEGREE AT ROCHESTER MN. ALSO...RADAR WAS PICKING UP ON SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FOR TODAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH...GUSTING 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MN/WI. NAM/GFS HAVE 925MB TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 23-25C RANGE WHICH WITH MIXING SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY AS WELL WITH
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WHERE FULL GREEN-UP HAS NOT OCCURRED YET. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT FAIRLY
STRONG CAP EXISTS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THERE IS SOME STEEPER MID-
LAYER LAPSE RATES/ THOUGH FOR PERHAPS A SCATTERED LINE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES AROUND
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

STILL A LITTLE BIT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS INTO IL-IA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. REST OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LOOKS RAIN-FREE WITH COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY/MOTHERS DAY. PLEASANT MOTHERS DAY ON TAP WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE UPTICK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
ILLINOIS. APPEARS WARM FRONT/BETTER CAPE POOL/ANY SEVERE THREAT
STAYS SOUTH OUT OF OUR AREA. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FORMS AND SHUTS OFF THE MIXING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BOTH SITES VERY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06.00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THAT COULD BE NEAR KLSE BY 07.06Z. HOWEVER...THE 05.12Z HI-
RES ARW KEPT THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH AND
WHERE IT WILL BE IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PLAN ON VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...GUSTING
AROUND 25 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER AND OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 20 PERCENT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERN WHERE TOTAL GREEN-
UP HAS NOT YET BEEN ACHIEVED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DAS
LONG TERM......DAS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 060454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI
LATE TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN
FRI NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND
800-550MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB
PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO 750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/ SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME- FRAME. WITH THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRI...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE 850-700MB
PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT
SHOULD BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DRYING/ LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI ...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST
GETTING STARTED AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE
WITH WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING
INCREASE AHEAD OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING
800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY
PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/ TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT
THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/ COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C
RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT
LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER
DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE
RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F
RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST
YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...WITH GRADUAL
MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOTHERS DAY
CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF THE
ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING
TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED
TSRA CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
SAT/SUN AND LOWS SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
SAT NIGHT UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE
THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FORMS AND SHUTS OFF THE MIXING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BOTH SITES VERY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06.00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THAT COULD BE NEAR KLSE BY 07.06Z. HOWEVER...THE 05.12Z HI-
RES ARW KEPT THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH AND
WHERE IT WILL BE IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 060454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI
LATE TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN
FRI NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND
800-550MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB
PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO 750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/ SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME- FRAME. WITH THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRI...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE 850-700MB
PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT
SHOULD BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DRYING/ LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI ...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST
GETTING STARTED AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE
WITH WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING
INCREASE AHEAD OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING
800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY
PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/ TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT
THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/ COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C
RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT
LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER
DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE
RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F
RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST
YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...WITH GRADUAL
MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOTHERS DAY
CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF THE
ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING
TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED
TSRA CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
SAT/SUN AND LOWS SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
SAT NIGHT UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE
THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THIS MIXED
LAYER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FORMS AND SHUTS OFF THE MIXING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BOTH SITES VERY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE 06.00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THAT COULD BE NEAR KLSE BY 07.06Z. HOWEVER...THE 05.12Z HI-
RES ARW KEPT THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH AND
WHERE IT WILL BE IS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 052259
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
559 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI
LATE TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN
FRI NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND
800-550MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB
PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO 750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/ SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME- FRAME. WITH THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRI...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE 850-700MB
PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT
SHOULD BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DRYING/ LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI ...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST
GETTING STARTED AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE
WITH WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING
INCREASE AHEAD OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING
800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY
PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/ TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT
THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/ COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C
RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT
LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER
DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE
RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F
RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST
YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...WITH GRADUAL
MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOTHERS DAY
CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF THE
ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING
TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED
TSRA CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
SAT/SUN AND LOWS SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
SAT NIGHT UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE
THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
STRONG. STILL ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO OCCUR AT
BOTH SITES. THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 052259
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
559 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI
LATE TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN
FRI NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND
800-550MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB
PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO 750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/ SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME- FRAME. WITH THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER THAN THOSE OF
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRI...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE 850-700MB
PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS AT 00Z
SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER
THE AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT
SHOULD BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DRYING/ LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI ...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST
GETTING STARTED AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE
WITH WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING
INCREASE AHEAD OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING
800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY
PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/ TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT
THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY
-SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/ COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C
RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT
LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER
DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE
RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F
RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST
YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...WITH GRADUAL
MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOTHERS DAY
CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF THE
ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING
TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED
TSRA CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS
SAT/SUN AND LOWS SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
SAT NIGHT UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE
THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXED LAYER DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
STRONG. STILL ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO OCCUR AT
BOTH SITES. THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 051955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI LATE
TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN FRI
NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND 800-550MB LAPSE RATES
IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO
750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT
-SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME-FRAME. WITH THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER
THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRI...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE
850-700MB PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS
AT 00Z SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE
AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT SHOULD
BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRYING/
LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST GETTING STARTED
AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH WARMER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASE AHEAD
OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SFC COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z
SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS
MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING 800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS
INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/
TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI
NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING AND
AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FCST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN CHANCES SOUTH
AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/
COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SUN...WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
MOTHERS DAY CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF
THE ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED TSRA
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT/SUN AND LOWS
SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS SAT NIGHT UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A NARROW AXIS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER...WHICH MAY IMPACT KRST WITH A
BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR JUST SOME PASSING
CIRRUS/SMOKE ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY AND
BECOME A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 051955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA CHANCES OVER WI LATE
TONIGHT...WARM HIGHS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREADING IN FRI
NIGHT.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AT MID-DAY...WHILE WIND REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.
BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A FEW
-SHRA OVER FAR NORTHWEST WI AND EAST-CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
GENERALLY SUNNY ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. WARMEST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS
/NEAR 90F/ ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MN WHILE COOLEST READINGS /MID 50S/
WERE OVER EASTERN WI.

NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 05.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS OFFERING A
RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS RISE/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI
THEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRI
NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE HGT
RISE/RIDGING TONIGHT/FRI THEN STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON THE
TROUGHING DROPPING IN FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THE 925-700MB WARM
ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WITH SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH AND 800-550MB LAPSE RATES
IN THE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IF 850-800MB PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED TO
750-700MB WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ISOLATED/SCT
-SHRA POSSIBLE AS THE STRONGER THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST ENDS OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 04Z-12Z TIME-FRAME. WITH THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SOME 10F TO 20F WARMER
THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRI...AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLUMN DRIES IN THE
850-700MB PORTION...BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT. 925MB TEMPS
AT 00Z SAT PROGGED TO BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS FRI
AFTERNOON IN THE 80-85F RANGE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE
AREA AS WELL ON FRI...FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND WHAT SHOULD
BE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRYING/
LOWERING DEW POINTS FRI...EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION JUST GETTING STARTED
AND NO CROPS IN THE FIELDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH WARMER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI. COLD FRONT...MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASE AHEAD
OF/WITH IT DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SFC COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO BE ALREADY EXITING THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z
SAT. MDT BUT WEAKENING 1000-700MB FN CONVERGENCE TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING 250 TO AS
MUCH AS 1250 J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING 800MB PARCELS LATE FRI EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH ALL THIS...BULK OF MODELS
INCLUDING HI-RES/WRF MODELS...ONLY PRODUCING A BAND OF SCT -SHRA/
TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE FRI
NIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT THEN CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT MORNING AND
AGAIN SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 05.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...HGTS
RISE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TREND FAVORS MORE NORTHERLY OF
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...BEING DRIVEN BY
MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT WITH IT ALREADY
EXITING THE FCST AREA AT 12Z SAT...LIMITED BULK OF ANY -SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SAT MORNING TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD. TRENDED RAIN CHANCES SOUTH
AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE REST OF SAT MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/
COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
925MB TEMPS BY SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 12C-14C RANGE. EVEN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS SAT LOOKING TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 65-70F RANGE. NEXT RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
REGION. ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE CONTINUES...WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 35F-45F RANGE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED LOW-LAYING LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
DID NOT ADD THIS TO GRIDS JUST YET BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CHILLY LOWS SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SUN...WITH GRADUAL MODIFICATION/WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
MOTHERS DAY CONTINUED TO TREND MOSTLY SUNNY...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY CONSENSUS OF
THE ROCKIES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT...LEADING
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT NOW SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT. CARRIED MOST OF THE RETURNING -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUN NIGHT. WITH BULK OF ANY MUCAPE NOW LOOKING TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT...LIMITED TSRA
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT/SUN AND LOWS
SUN NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS SAT NIGHT UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.

FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS 05.00Z/05.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT MON
AS THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND IT DIGS MORE
STRONGLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY
TUE BUT LOOSE CONSENSUS FOR REMNANTS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ENERGY
CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MT/WY/DAKOTAS AREA. LOOSE
CONSENSUS THEN DRIFTS THIS TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD/INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WED/THU TOO.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE MON THEN AVERAGE FOR TUE THRU THU.

INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MON. THIS WITH ROUNDS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MUCAPES AS HIGH AS 250-750 J/KG AND GENERAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY TO THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 40-
60 PERCENT RANGE MON THRU TUE LOOK GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS IN THE MON THRU TUE PERIOD. WED WOULD BE THE BETWEEN-
SYSTEMS PERIOD AS ONE TROUGH EXITS AND THE NEXT ONE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SOME
20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT REASONABLE
FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW/TROUGH WOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...BRINGING RENEWED MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING/LIFT INTO THE AREA
FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. AGAIN...WITH ALL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OUT ON DAY 7 OKAY
FOR NOW. 925MB TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE WHAT WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS WOULD HELP LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU THU
LOOKING REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A NARROW AXIS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER...WHICH MAY IMPACT KRST WITH A
BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR JUST SOME PASSING
CIRRUS/SMOKE ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO FRIDAY AND
BECOME A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20MPH
WITH THE STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. BIGGER QUESTION FRI IS HOW DEEP
WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AND HOW DRY/LOW WILL THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES GO. INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A WEAK/MDT
INVERSION NEAR 850MB ON FRI AS STRONGER WARMING ABOVE 850MB OUTPACES
THE WARMING BELOW 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS MORE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MORE IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE. IF THE AIRMASS MIXES DEEPER...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ON FRI WOULD DROP MORE IN THE THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
EITHER WAY...THE WARM TEMPS/WINDS/LOW RH/S WILL MAKE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 051733
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AT 3 AM...A 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S/ WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN DODGE...MOWER...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES.

THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT GOES INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND THERE IS LITTLE LEFT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY...OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

DESPITE SOME SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ON FRIDAY...WE
STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO THAT WELL AT...LOWERED THE DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5F TO GET INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WOULD LOWER THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 05.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM 1-2K IN THE EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
500 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A NARROW AXIS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER...WHICH MAY IMPACT KRST
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS/SMOKE ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY
AS LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO
FRIDAY AND BECOME A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING
ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 051733
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AT 3 AM...A 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S/ WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN DODGE...MOWER...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES.

THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT GOES INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND THERE IS LITTLE LEFT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY...OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

DESPITE SOME SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ON FRIDAY...WE
STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO THAT WELL AT...LOWERED THE DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5F TO GET INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WOULD LOWER THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 05.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM 1-2K IN THE EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
500 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A NARROW AXIS OF THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER...WHICH MAY IMPACT KRST
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS/SMOKE ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY
AS LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO
FRIDAY AND BECOME A LITTLE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING
ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 051125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AT 3 AM...A 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S/ WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN DODGE...MOWER...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES.

THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT GOES INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND THERE IS LITTLE LEFT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY...OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

DESPITE SOME SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ON FRIDAY...WE
STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO THAT WELL AT...LOWERED THE DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5F TO GET INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WOULD LOWER THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 05.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM 1-2K IN THE EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
500 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WITH SOME INCREASING MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 8000 AND 12000 FT AGL AS A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
SOME SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH THESE CLOUDS SO ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME -RA AT KSRT FROM 05.14 TO 05.18Z. SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY...VARIABLE THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING A BIT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING
ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-041>044-053-055.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 050850
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AT 3 AM...A 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S/ WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXCEPT FOR AREAS LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN DODGE...MOWER...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES.

THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
EVEN THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...THE SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT GOES INTO
DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND THERE IS LITTLE LEFT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY...OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

DESPITE SOME SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ON FRIDAY...WE
STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEW
POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT DO THAT WELL AT...LOWERED THE DEW
POINTS BY 3 TO 5F TO GET INTO THE MID 40S. THIS WOULD LOWER THE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S WHICH COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 05.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM 1-2K IN THE EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
500 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SURFACE CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED FROM NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DIRECTION GOING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S AND WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING
ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-041>044-053-055.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 050453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY INTO LA CROSSE...VERNON AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES TO COVER THOSE TYPICALLY COLD VALLEYS AND
DRAINAGE SPOTS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S BY MORNING ALLOWING FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FROST POTENTIAL
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...-SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO THRU SD TO CO. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS 10-20KT G20-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID-DAY. RA-OBS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/VIS IMAGERY
SHOWING NORTHERLY SFC- 500MB FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING
A DEEP DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF MN/IA/WI. SFC DEW POINTS HAD MIXED
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN
IA/NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL RUNS OF 04.12Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND
HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS
CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW30S/ SETS
THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWS 60S AND 25-30 DEGREES OF DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LAYING AREAS...PUTS LOWS IN THE
30-35F RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 APPEARING
QUITE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
FROST ADVISORY THOSE AREAS LOOKING GOOD. DID ADD TREMPEALEAU CO.
TO THE ADVISORY MIX. STRONGER 925- 700MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 800MB BUT
PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. THIS WITH
MODELS TRYING TO SNEAK A WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES WRF
MODELS GENERATE SOME -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS
AND MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING...ANY
-SHRA/RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DID ADD A SPRINKLE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
15-21Z THURSDAY. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z FRI SUPPORTING HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT
TRENDING TO BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A LESSER SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR THIS VS. THE -SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCE THURSDAY AND LEFT
THURSDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARM TEMPS
FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

04.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20C TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
ON THESE TEMPS...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-
LOW 80S FRI. WITH WARMER OF MODELS OFTEN VERIFYING BETTER IN DRY...
WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW...SIDED WITH WARMER OF MODELS WITH
HIGHS FRI MORE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...SOME 10-15F ABOVE THE NORMALS.
THE WARMTH FOR THE AREA IS SHORT LIVED...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF CAN DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 90-100KT 250-300MB JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MN CENTERED
ON LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD
OF/WITH THE FRONT...MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND SOME SFC-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT... CENTERED ON LATE FRI
NIGHT LOOKS GOOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT/ SAT MORNING WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 12C-14C RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS SAT ALREADY
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MDT TO BRISK NORTH
WINDS SAT WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FRI.
WEAK/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI THEN
SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT-
WED... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z/04.12Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUN FOR
RISING HGTS ALOFT AS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
MODEL REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MONDAY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL
LOW AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE FOR TUE/WED AS REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD EJECT INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES BEING DRIVEN BY HOW
MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS BETWEEN IT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER
SOUTHWEST CAN/ NORTHWEST CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD
SUNDAY...THEN ON THE LOW SIDE BY TUE/WED.

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE RISING HGTS ALOFT. MOTHERS
DAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON 925-850MB TEMPS SUN...BUT HIGHS
SUN LOOKING TO BE IN THE 60F-70F RANGE...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY SUN
NIGHT ECMWF...WITH A FASTER/MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO THE PLAINS...IS ALREADY SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ECMWF WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW REMNANTS AND MORE DIGGING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND
IT...CONTINUES WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUE/WED. GFS WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS
TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOW MORE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
TUE/WED...AND WOULD LEAVE MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE/WED. 04.12Z CAN-GEM SPLITS THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. UNTIL THE NORTH-SOUTH
STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT AND DAY 5-7
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES...WITH STAY WILL THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
OF MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO WED.
925-850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR SUN-WED.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS NEAR THE EARLY MAY NORMALS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED FROM NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DIRECTION GOING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE WEST WINDS GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 50F SAT AFTERNOON. IF THESE MIX TO LOWER VALUES...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON FRI COULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AND COULD
CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON
FRI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-034-
     041>044-053-055.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 050213
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
913 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY INTO LA CROSSE...VERNON AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES TO COVER THOSE TYPICALLY COLD VALLEYS AND
DRAINAGE SPOTS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S BY MORNING ALLOWING FROST TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FROST POTENTIAL
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...-SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO THRU SD TO CO. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS 10-20KT G20-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID-DAY. RA-OBS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/VIS IMAGERY
SHOWING NORTHERLY SFC- 500MB FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING
A DEEP DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF MN/IA/WI. SFC DEW POINTS HAD MIXED
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN
IA/NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL RUNS OF 04.12Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND
HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS
CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW30S/ SETS
THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWS 60S AND 25-30 DEGREES OF DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LAYING AREAS...PUTS LOWS IN THE
30-35F RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 APPEARING
QUITE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
FROST ADVISORY THOSE AREAS LOOKING GOOD. DID ADD TREMPEALEAU CO.
TO THE ADVISORY MIX. STRONGER 925- 700MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 800MB BUT
PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. THIS WITH
MODELS TRYING TO SNEAK A WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES WRF
MODELS GENERATE SOME -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS
AND MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING...ANY
-SHRA/RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DID ADD A SPRINKLE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
15-21Z THURSDAY. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z FRI SUPPORTING HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT
TRENDING TO BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A LESSER SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR THIS VS. THE -SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCE THURSDAY AND LEFT
THURSDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARM TEMPS
FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

04.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20C TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
ON THESE TEMPS...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-
LOW 80S FRI. WITH WARMER OF MODELS OFTEN VERIFYING BETTER IN DRY...
WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW...SIDED WITH WARMER OF MODELS WITH
HIGHS FRI MORE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...SOME 10-15F ABOVE THE NORMALS.
THE WARMTH FOR THE AREA IS SHORT LIVED...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF CAN DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 90-100KT 250-300MB JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MN CENTERED
ON LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD
OF/WITH THE FRONT...MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND SOME SFC-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT... CENTERED ON LATE FRI
NIGHT LOOKS GOOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT/ SAT MORNING WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 12C-14C RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS SAT ALREADY
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MDT TO BRISK NORTH
WINDS SAT WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FRI.
WEAK/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI THEN
SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT-
WED... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z/04.12Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUN FOR
RISING HGTS ALOFT AS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
MODEL REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MONDAY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL
LOW AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE FOR TUE/WED AS REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD EJECT INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES BEING DRIVEN BY HOW
MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS BETWEEN IT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER
SOUTHWEST CAN/ NORTHWEST CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD
SUNDAY...THEN ON THE LOW SIDE BY TUE/WED.

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE RISING HGTS ALOFT. MOTHERS
DAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON 925-850MB TEMPS SUN...BUT HIGHS
SUN LOOKING TO BE IN THE 60F-70F RANGE...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY SUN
NIGHT ECMWF...WITH A FASTER/MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO THE PLAINS...IS ALREADY SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ECMWF WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW REMNANTS AND MORE DIGGING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND
IT...CONTINUES WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUE/WED. GFS WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS
TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOW MORE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
TUE/WED...AND WOULD LEAVE MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE/WED. 04.12Z CAN-GEM SPLITS THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. UNTIL THE NORTH-SOUTH
STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT AND DAY 5-7
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES...WITH STAY WILL THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
OF MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO WED.
925-850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR SUN-WED.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS NEAR THE EARLY MAY NORMALS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH TONIGHT AND THEN GO AROUND TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND
THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE WEST WINDS GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 50F SAT AFTERNOON. IF THESE MIX TO LOWER VALUES...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON FRI COULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AND COULD
CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON
FRI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-041>044-053-055.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 042308
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FROST POTENTIAL
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 TONIGHT...-SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO THRU SD TO CO. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
MDT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS 10-20KT G20-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID-DAY. RA-OBS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/VIS IMAGERY
SHOWING NORTHERLY SFC- 500MB FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING
A DEEP DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF MN/IA/WI. SFC DEW POINTS HAD MIXED
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN
IA/NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL RUNS OF 04.12Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND
HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS
CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW30S/ SETS
THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWS 60S AND 25-30 DEGREES OF DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN LOW LAYING AREAS...PUTS LOWS IN THE
30-35F RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 APPEARING
QUITE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
FROST ADVISORY THOSE AREAS LOOKING GOOD. DID ADD TREMPEALEAU CO.
TO THE ADVISORY MIX. STRONGER 925- 700MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 800MB BUT
PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. THIS WITH
MODELS TRYING TO SNEAK A WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES WRF
MODELS GENERATE SOME -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MID- DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS
AND MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING...ANY
-SHRA/RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DID ADD A SPRINKLE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
15-21Z THURSDAY. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z FRI SUPPORTING HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT
TRENDING TO BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A LESSER SIGNAL AMONG
MODELS FOR THIS VS. THE -SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCE THURSDAY AND LEFT
THURSDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL COOLING
TONIGHT...FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARM TEMPS
FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

04.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20C TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
ON THESE TEMPS...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-
LOW 80S FRI. WITH WARMER OF MODELS OFTEN VERIFYING BETTER IN DRY...
WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW...SIDED WITH WARMER OF MODELS WITH
HIGHS FRI MORE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...SOME 10-15F ABOVE THE NORMALS.
THE WARMTH FOR THE AREA IS SHORT LIVED...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF CAN DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 90-100KT 250-300MB JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MN CENTERED
ON LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD
OF/WITH THE FRONT...MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND SOME SFC-700MB FN
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT... CENTERED ON LATE FRI
NIGHT LOOKS GOOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT/ SAT MORNING WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 12C-14C RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS SAT ALREADY
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MDT TO BRISK NORTH
WINDS SAT WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FRI.
WEAK/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI THEN
SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT-
WED... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z/04.12Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUN FOR
RISING HGTS ALOFT AS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
MODEL REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MONDAY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL
LOW AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE FOR TUE/WED AS REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD EJECT INTO
THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES BEING DRIVEN BY HOW
MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS BETWEEN IT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER
SOUTHWEST CAN/ NORTHWEST CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD
SUNDAY...THEN ON THE LOW SIDE BY TUE/WED.

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE RISING HGTS ALOFT. MOTHERS
DAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON 925-850MB TEMPS SUN...BUT HIGHS
SUN LOOKING TO BE IN THE 60F-70F RANGE...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY SUN
NIGHT ECMWF...WITH A FASTER/MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO THE PLAINS...IS ALREADY SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ECMWF WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW REMNANTS AND MORE DIGGING OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND
IT...CONTINUES WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUE/WED. GFS WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS
TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOW MORE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
TUE/WED...AND WOULD LEAVE MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE/WED. 04.12Z CAN-GEM SPLITS THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. UNTIL THE NORTH-SOUTH
STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT AND DAY 5-7
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES...WITH STAY WILL THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
OF MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO WED.
925-850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR SUN-WED.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS NEAR THE EARLY MAY NORMALS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO ONTARIO
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH TONIGHT AND THEN GO AROUND TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE WEST WINDS GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 50F SAT AFTERNOON. IF THESE MIX TO LOWER VALUES...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON FRI COULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AND COULD
CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON
FRI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 042018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FROST POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF
I-94 TONIGHT...-SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCES THU AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ONT THRU SD TO CO. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MDT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN
NORTH WINDS 10-20KT G20-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AT MID-DAY.
RA-OBS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWING NORTHERLY SFC-500MB FLOW
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING A DEEP DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF
MN/IA/WI. SFC DEW POINTS HAD MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN IA/NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL RUNS OF 04.12Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND HGTS
RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND THRU THU
NIGHT ON THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT 12Z THU. LIGHT/CALM WINDS UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS /DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW30S/ SETS THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWS 60S AND 25-30 DEGREES OF DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LAYING AREAS...PUTS LOWS IN THE 30-35F RANGE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 APPEARING QUITE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING...WITH FROST ADVISORY THOSE AREAS LOOKING
GOOD. DID ADD TREMPEALEAU CO. TO THE ADVISORY MIX. STRONGER 925-
700MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THU. MODELS INDICATING
AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THU. THIS MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT
800MB BUT PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY THU. THIS WITH
MODELS TRYING TO SNEAK A WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES WRF MODELS
GENERATE SOME -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
AROUND MID-DAY THU. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS AND MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING...ANY -SHRA/RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. DID ADD A SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3
TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA 15-21Z THU. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z FRI
SUPPORTING HIGHS THU IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES THU NIGHT...AS DO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. THU
NIGHT TRENDING TO BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE
OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER A LESSER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR
THIS VS. THE -SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCE THU AND LEFT THU NIGHT DRY FOR
NOW. WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT...FAVORED COOLER OF
GUIDANCE LOWS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU/THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARM TEMPS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING.

04.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL
FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20C TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
ON THESE TEMPS...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-
LOW 80S FRI. WITH WARMER OF MODELS OFTEN VERIFYING BETTER IN DRY...
WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW...SIDED WITH WARMER OF MODELS WITH
HIGHS FRI MORE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...SOME 10-15F ABOVE THE NORMALS.
THE WARMTH FOR THE AREA IS SHORT LIVED...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF CAN DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST
AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-100KT 250-300MB
JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MN CENTERED ON LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT...MUCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG AND SOME SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE FRONT...
CENTERED ON LATE FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT/
SAT MORNING WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-14C RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SAT ALREADY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MDT
TO BRISK NORTH WINDS SAT WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN FRI. WEAK/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI
THEN SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT-WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z/04.12Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUN FOR
RISING HGTS ALOFT AS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LKS SHIFTS EAST. MODEL
REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MON FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW AS IT
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR
TUE/WED AS REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD EJECT INTO THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES BEING DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH INTERACTION
OCCURS BETWEEN IT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER SOUTHWEST CAN/
NORTHWEST CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUNDAY...THEN ON THE LOW SIDE
BY TUE/WED.

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE RISING HGTS ALOFT. MOTHERS
DAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON 925-850MB TEMPS SUN...BUT HIGHS
SUN LOOKING TO BE IN THE 60F-70F RANGE...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY SUN
NIGHT ECMWF...WITH A FASTER/MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO THE PLAINS...IS ALREADY SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE
FCST AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. ECMWF WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW REMNANTS AND MORE DIGGING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT...CONTINUES
WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/WED.
GFS WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS TRACKS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MORE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUE/WED...AND WOULD LEAVE
MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
TUE/WED. 04.12Z CAN-GEM SPLITS THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE. UNTIL THE NORTH-SOUTH STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT AND DAY 5-7 CONFIDENCE IMPROVES...WITH STAY WILL
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO WED. 925-850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CHANGE
LITTLE FOR SUN-WED. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS NEAR
THE EARLY MAY NORMALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL
TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS ROLL DOWN INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE WEST WINDS GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 50F SAT AFTERNOON. IF THESE MIX TO LOWER VALUES...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON FRI COULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AND COULD
CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON
FRI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 042018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FROST POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF
I-94 TONIGHT...-SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCES THU AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHWEST ONT THRU SD TO CO. DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MDT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN
NORTH WINDS 10-20KT G20-30KTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AT MID-DAY.
RA-OBS/MODEL SOUNDINGS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWING NORTHERLY SFC-500MB FLOW
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ADVECTING A DEEP DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF
MN/IA/WI. SFC DEW POINTS HAD MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN IA/NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODEL RUNS OF 04.12Z INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND HGTS
RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND THRU THU
NIGHT ON THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA AT 12Z THU. LIGHT/CALM WINDS UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS...CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS /DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW30S/ SETS THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWS 60S AND 25-30 DEGREES OF DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LAYING AREAS...PUTS LOWS IN THE 30-35F RANGE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 APPEARING QUITE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU MORNING...WITH FROST ADVISORY THOSE AREAS LOOKING
GOOD. DID ADD TREMPEALEAU CO. TO THE ADVISORY MIX. STRONGER 925-
700MB WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THU. MODELS INDICATING
AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THU. THIS MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT
800MB BUT PW VALUES PROGGED INTO THE 0.75 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY THU. THIS WITH
MODELS TRYING TO SNEAK A WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING HI-RES WRF MODELS
GENERATE SOME -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
AROUND MID-DAY THU. GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS AND MOST OF THE WARM
ADVECTION LOOKING TO GO INTO WARMING...ANY -SHRA/RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. DID ADD A SPRINKLE MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3
TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA 15-21Z THU. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z FRI
SUPPORTING HIGHS THU IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES THU NIGHT...AS DO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. THU
NIGHT TRENDING TO BE A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL. MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST SIDE
OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT. HOWEVER A LESSER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR
THIS VS. THE -SHRA/SPRINKLE CHANCE THU AND LEFT THU NIGHT DRY FOR
NOW. WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT...FAVORED COOLER OF
GUIDANCE LOWS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU/THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARM TEMPS FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING.

04.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERALL
FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 20C TO 22C RANGE BY 00Z SAT. SOME MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
ON THESE TEMPS...BUT CONSENSUS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-
LOW 80S FRI. WITH WARMER OF MODELS OFTEN VERIFYING BETTER IN DRY...
WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW...SIDED WITH WARMER OF MODELS WITH
HIGHS FRI MORE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...SOME 10-15F ABOVE THE NORMALS.
THE WARMTH FOR THE AREA IS SHORT LIVED...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF CAN DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST
AREA FRI NIGHT. SOME PV ADVECTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-100KT 250-300MB
JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MN CENTERED ON LATER FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT...MUCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG AND SOME SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE FRONT...
CENTERED ON LATE FRI NIGHT LOOKS GOOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT/
SAT MORNING WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-14C RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
HIGHS SAT ALREADY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MDT
TO BRISK NORTH WINDS SAT WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN FRI. WEAK/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FRI
THEN SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN NIGHT-WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z/04.12Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUN FOR
RISING HGTS ALOFT AS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LKS SHIFTS EAST. MODEL
REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MON FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW AS IT
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR
TUE/WED AS REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD EJECT INTO THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES BEING DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH INTERACTION
OCCURS BETWEEN IT AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER SOUTHWEST CAN/
NORTHWEST CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUNDAY...THEN ON THE LOW SIDE
BY TUE/WED.

THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF CAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE RISING HGTS ALOFT. MOTHERS
DAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON 925-850MB TEMPS SUN...BUT HIGHS
SUN LOOKING TO BE IN THE 60F-70F RANGE...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BY SUN
NIGHT ECMWF...WITH A FASTER/MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO THE PLAINS...IS ALREADY SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NORTHEAST INTO THE
FCST AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. ECMWF WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW REMNANTS AND MORE DIGGING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND IT...CONTINUES
WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/WED.
GFS WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS TRACKS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MORE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUE/WED...AND WOULD LEAVE
MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
TUE/WED. 04.12Z CAN-GEM SPLITS THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE. UNTIL THE NORTH-SOUTH STREAM INTERACTION DETAILS SORT
THEMSELVES OUT AND DAY 5-7 CONFIDENCE IMPROVES...WITH STAY WILL
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO WED. 925-850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CHANGE
LITTLE FOR SUN-WED. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS NEAR
THE EARLY MAY NORMALS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL
TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS ROLL DOWN INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE WEST WINDS GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGER OF THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXED SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 50F SAT AFTERNOON. IF THESE MIX TO LOWER VALUES...
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON FRI COULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AND COULD
CREATE ISSUES FOR THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON
FRI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-
     034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 041718
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS ROLL DOWN INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 041132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON THERMAL
CUMULUS IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL LAYER...RETURNING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BIGGER IMPACT
WILL BE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LATE AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 040902
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 032307
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
LINES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH WESTWARD
EXPANSION INTO MINNESOTA. THE 03.21Z HRRR AND 03.20Z CR-HRRR STILL
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A WESTWARD EXPANSION SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO GROUPS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT BOTH
SITES. ALSO EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM AND THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 032025
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 032025
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 031715
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BOYNE
LONG TERM......BOYNE
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 031130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS...BECOMING BROKEN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12Z TAFS. EITHER WAY...ANY
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING ANY REDUCTION IS VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM WITH SHOWERS.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20 KT RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT
KRST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE





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