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000
FXUS63 KARX 301101
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2014

LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HUNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST. BUFKIT RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE NEAR 1 KFT CIGS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT TOWARD
18Z.

FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND OF -SHRA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT KRST
BEFORE 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED KRST/KLSE WOULD BE
UNDER MVFR CIGS. WILL TREND THIS WAY. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 301101
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2014

LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HUNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST. BUFKIT RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE NEAR 1 KFT CIGS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SCATTER OUT TOWARD
18Z.

FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND OF -SHRA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT KRST
BEFORE 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED KRST/KLSE WOULD BE
UNDER MVFR CIGS. WILL TREND THIS WAY. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 300835
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LSE/RST AROUND 8Z OR SO.
THERE IS SOME IFR CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
MOST OF IT RESIDES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UP OF MICHIGAN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY OF THE IFR CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RST HAS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS THERE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WITH HOW FAST THIS
STRATUS WILL ERODE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHETHER IT ACTUALLY WILL
ERODE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
RST POTENTIAL SEEING SOME IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL
COME LATER ON...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 300340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 29.18Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 30.00Z. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE COULD
STILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z AND PLAN TO CARRY A SMALL
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING TO COVER
THIS.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LARGE SCALE...THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLE
SIMILARLY BY THE 29.12Z MODELS BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND HELPS FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS THEN ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARISE IS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE SECONDARY WEAKER WAVES THAT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EACH OF THESE WAVES
COMES ACROSS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THEY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY START OUT WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN...IT SHOULD START VEERING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CARRY A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST AND WORKING THIS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS...THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED
TO 80 OR HIGHER. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL MU
CAPE AVAILABLE THE WHOLE TIME...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY GET PUSHED PAST THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF FRIDAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LSE/RST AROUND 8Z OR SO.
THERE IS SOME IFR CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
MOST OF IT RESIDES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UP OF MICHIGAN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY OF THE IFR CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RST HAS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS THERE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WITH HOW FAST THIS
STRATUS WILL ERODE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHETHER IT ACTUALLY WILL
ERODE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
RST POTENTIAL SEEING SOME IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL
COME LATER ON...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 300340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 29.18Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 30.00Z. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE COULD
STILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z AND PLAN TO CARRY A SMALL
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING TO COVER
THIS.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LARGE SCALE...THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLE
SIMILARLY BY THE 29.12Z MODELS BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND HELPS FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS THEN ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARISE IS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE SECONDARY WEAKER WAVES THAT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EACH OF THESE WAVES
COMES ACROSS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THEY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY START OUT WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN...IT SHOULD START VEERING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CARRY A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST AND WORKING THIS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS...THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED
TO 80 OR HIGHER. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL MU
CAPE AVAILABLE THE WHOLE TIME...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY GET PUSHED PAST THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF FRIDAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LSE/RST AROUND 8Z OR SO.
THERE IS SOME IFR CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
MOST OF IT RESIDES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UP OF MICHIGAN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY OF THE IFR CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RST HAS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS THERE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WITH HOW FAST THIS
STRATUS WILL ERODE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHETHER IT ACTUALLY WILL
ERODE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
RST POTENTIAL SEEING SOME IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL
COME LATER ON...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 292316
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
616 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 29.18Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 30.00Z. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE COULD
STILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z AND PLAN TO CARRY A SMALL
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING TO COVER
THIS.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LARGE SCALE...THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLE
SIMILARLY BY THE 29.12Z MODELS BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND HELPS FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS THEN ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARISE IS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE SECONDARY WEAKER WAVES THAT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EACH OF THESE WAVES
COMES ACROSS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THEY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY START OUT WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN...IT SHOULD START VEERING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CARRY A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST AND WORKING THIS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS...THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED
TO 80 OR HIGHER. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL MU
CAPE AVAILABLE THE WHOLE TIME...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY GET PUSHED PAST THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF FRIDAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND WITH A BAND OF 1-3KFT BKN-OVC CEILINGS
ACCOMPANYING IT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND IS EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
EXPECT THAT THIS CLEARING WILL GET INTO LSE/RST AROUND THE 2-3Z
TIME FRAME AND THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN PART OF WISCONSIN TO SEE IF THE STRATUS
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...BUT CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR THE
CLEARING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW AS WINDS COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 291953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 29.18Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 30.00Z. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE COULD
STILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z AND PLAN TO CARRY A SMALL
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING TO COVER
THIS.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LARGE SCALE...THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLE
SIMILARLY BY THE 29.12Z MODELS BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND HELPS FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS THEN ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARISE IS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE SECONDARY WEAKER WAVES THAT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EACH OF THESE WAVES
COMES ACROSS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THEY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY START OUT WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN...IT SHOULD START VEERING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CARRY A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST AND WORKING THIS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS...THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED
TO 80 OR HIGHER. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL MU
CAPE AVAILABLE THE WHOLE TIME...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY GET PUSHED PAST THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF FRIDAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF MN/WI
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ABOUT TO CLEAR THE KRST AREA AS SOME
DRIER SFC-925MB AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
ARRIVES. BAND OF POST-FRONTAL -SHRA WAS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY WI...AND MAY CLIP THE KLSE AREA. INCLUDED A 19-22Z VCSH
MENTION AT KLSE FOR NOW.

THE LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE STUCK IN/UNDER A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING
INVERSION NEAR 900MB TONIGHT INTO TUE. ONCE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PASS...SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS.
APPEAR THE MOISTURE/MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS OF 5-7KTS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LEFT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR OUT OF BOTH THE TAFS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
THAT SOME DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TUE MORNING AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE SFC-925MB RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 291953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 29.18Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 30.00Z. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE COULD
STILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 00Z AND PLAN TO CARRY A SMALL
RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING TO COVER
THIS.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LARGE SCALE...THIS SYSTEM IS HANDLE
SIMILARLY BY THE 29.12Z MODELS BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND HELPS FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS THEN ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARISE IS WITH THE HANDLING OF
THESE SECONDARY WEAKER WAVES THAT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EACH OF THESE WAVES
COMES ACROSS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THEY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN
THE 1000-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY START OUT WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
STARTS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN...IT SHOULD START VEERING OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CARRY A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WEST AND WORKING THIS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER CONSENSUS...THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE RAISED
TO 80 OR HIGHER. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL MU
CAPE AVAILABLE THE WHOLE TIME...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY GET PUSHED PAST THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF FRIDAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF MN/WI
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ABOUT TO CLEAR THE KRST AREA AS SOME
DRIER SFC-925MB AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
ARRIVES. BAND OF POST-FRONTAL -SHRA WAS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY WI...AND MAY CLIP THE KLSE AREA. INCLUDED A 19-22Z VCSH
MENTION AT KLSE FOR NOW.

THE LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE STUCK IN/UNDER A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING
INVERSION NEAR 900MB TONIGHT INTO TUE. ONCE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PASS...SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS.
APPEAR THE MOISTURE/MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS OF 5-7KTS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LEFT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR OUT OF BOTH THE TAFS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
THAT SOME DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TUE MORNING AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE SFC-925MB RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 291732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORMING IN A REGION OF 600-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MN. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PARTS OF SD AND
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR HOLD THERE
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST...SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
INTO MICH TONIGHT. DECENT RESPONSE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 800-900 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THIS IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT AS AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTH-EAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT HOW FAR THESE
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND WEST IS QUESTIONABLE. THINK AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COOLER...WETTER PATTERN TAKES OVER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY
TO A MORE ACTIVE-CYCLONICALLY FAVORED FLOW.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING 3 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SWINGING THE AXIS OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WILL ORIGINATE AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
WILL SLIP IN BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE...MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. THE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRI. IT WILL HELP CARVE OUT/DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DOES.

WHILE THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL STAY WEST/NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE ARM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. BROAD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE NAM AND
GFS...BUT MOST OF THIS HOLDS ACROSS IA. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...THE LESSER THESE
CHANCES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST...AND IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER. IT WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND...BUT WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE SOME SATURATION ISSUES HERE TOO...AS
MODELS SUGGEST DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND.
SO...IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE MINIMAL.

THE CANADA SHORTWAVE IS NEXT...AND LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH. STRONG 300-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS
IT DOES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT. IT WILL BRING ITS OWN SATURATION THOUGH...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI.

ON THE WHOLE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
COME TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WITH THIS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF RECENT
DAYS...COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND IS GOING TO LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THE WARM AND
SUNNY ONE THAT JUST WRAPPED UP. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HINTS THAT A RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
AT OR BELOW THE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF MN/WI
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ABOUT TO CLEAR THE KRST AREA AS SOME
DRIER SFC-925MB AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
ARRIVES. BAND OF POST-FRONTAL -SHRA WAS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY WI...AND MAY CLIP THE KLSE AREA. INCLUDED A 19-22Z VCSH
MENTION AT KLSE FOR NOW.

THE LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE STUCK IN/UNDER A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING
INVERSION NEAR 900MB TONIGHT INTO TUE. ONCE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PASS...SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS.
APPEAR THE MOISTURE/MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS OF 5-7KTS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LEFT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR OUT OF BOTH THE TAFS. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
THAT SOME DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TUE MORNING AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE SFC-925MB RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 291042
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORMING IN A REGION OF 600-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MN. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PARTS OF SD AND
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR HOLD THERE
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST...SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
INTO MICH TONIGHT. DECENT RESPONSE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 800-900 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THIS IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT AS AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTH-EAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT HOW FAR THESE
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND WEST IS QUESTIONABLE. THINK AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COOLER...WETTER PATTERN TAKES OVER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY
TO A MORE ACTIVE-CYCLONICALLY FAVORED FLOW.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING 3 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SWINGING THE AXIS OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WILL ORIGINATE AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
WILL SLIP IN BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE...MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. THE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRI. IT WILL HELP CARVE OUT/DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DOES.

WHILE THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL STAY WEST/NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE ARM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. BROAD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE NAM AND
GFS...BUT MOST OF THIS HOLDS ACROSS IA. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...THE LESSER THESE
CHANCES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST...AND IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER. IT WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND...BUT WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE SOME SATURATION ISSUES HERE TOO...AS
MODELS SUGGEST DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND.
SO...IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE MINIMAL.

THE CANADA SHORTWAVE IS NEXT...AND LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH. STRONG 300-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS
IT DOES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT. IT WILL BRING ITS OWN SATURATION THOUGH...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI.

ON THE WHOLE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
COME TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WITH THIS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF RECENT
DAYS...COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND IS GOING TO LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THE WARM AND
SUNNY ONE THAT JUST WRAPPED UP. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HINTS THAT A RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
AT OR BELOW THE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOG THICK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT KLSE. LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. A BAND OF SHRA WAS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THINKING BETTER FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING TODAY WILL BE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE
THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z WITH NORTH WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. KRST SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO INVADE BY 15Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA...BUT MVFR CLOUD COVER
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE
INVERSION...CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER IND IFR RANGE AT KRST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 291042
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORMING IN A REGION OF 600-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MN. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PARTS OF SD AND
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR HOLD THERE
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST...SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
INTO MICH TONIGHT. DECENT RESPONSE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 800-900 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THIS IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT AS AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTH-EAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT HOW FAR THESE
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND WEST IS QUESTIONABLE. THINK AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COOLER...WETTER PATTERN TAKES OVER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY
TO A MORE ACTIVE-CYCLONICALLY FAVORED FLOW.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING 3 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SWINGING THE AXIS OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WILL ORIGINATE AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
WILL SLIP IN BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE...MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. THE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRI. IT WILL HELP CARVE OUT/DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DOES.

WHILE THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL STAY WEST/NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE ARM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. BROAD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE NAM AND
GFS...BUT MOST OF THIS HOLDS ACROSS IA. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...THE LESSER THESE
CHANCES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST...AND IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER. IT WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND...BUT WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE SOME SATURATION ISSUES HERE TOO...AS
MODELS SUGGEST DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND.
SO...IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE MINIMAL.

THE CANADA SHORTWAVE IS NEXT...AND LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH. STRONG 300-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS
IT DOES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT. IT WILL BRING ITS OWN SATURATION THOUGH...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI.

ON THE WHOLE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
COME TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WITH THIS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF RECENT
DAYS...COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND IS GOING TO LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THE WARM AND
SUNNY ONE THAT JUST WRAPPED UP. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HINTS THAT A RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
AT OR BELOW THE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOG THICK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT KLSE. LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. A BAND OF SHRA WAS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THINKING BETTER FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING TODAY WILL BE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE
THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z WITH NORTH WINDS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. KRST SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO INVADE BY 15Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CANADA...BUT MVFR CLOUD COVER
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE
INVERSION...CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER IND IFR RANGE AT KRST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 290801
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORMING IN A REGION OF 600-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MN. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PARTS OF SD AND
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR HOLD THERE
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST...SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
INTO MICH TONIGHT. DECENT RESPONSE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 800-900 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THIS IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT AS AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTH-EAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT HOW FAR THESE
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND WEST IS QUESTIONABLE. THINK AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COOLER...WETTER PATTERN TAKES OVER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY
TO A MORE ACTIVE-CYCLONICALLY FAVORED FLOW.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING 3 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SWINGING THE AXIS OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WILL ORIGINATE AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
WILL SLIP IN BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE...MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. THE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRI. IT WILL HELP CARVE OUT/DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DOES.

WHILE THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL STAY WEST/NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE ARM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. BROAD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE NAM AND
GFS...BUT MOST OF THIS HOLDS ACROSS IA. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...THE LESSER THESE
CHANCES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST...AND IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER. IT WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND...BUT WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE SOME SATURATION ISSUES HERE TOO...AS
MODELS SUGGEST DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND.
SO...IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE MINIMAL.

THE CANADA SHORTWAVE IS NEXT...AND LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH. STRONG 300-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS
IT DOES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT. IT WILL BRING ITS OWN SATURATION THOUGH...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI.

ON THE WHOLE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
COME TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WITH THIS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF RECENT
DAYS...COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND IS GOING TO LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THE WARM AND
SUNNY ONE THAT JUST WRAPPED UP. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HINTS THAT A RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
AT OR BELOW THE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CHANGES ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF IT...WINDS
HAVE GONE LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN A MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS...SO
SOME FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS. HAVE
DOWNED THE VIS/CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING AT LSE BEFORE
IMPROVING AS THE COLD FRONT GETS IN AROUND DAY BREAK. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY START OUT AT VFR BUT SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER LOW DECK WILL MOVE IN AND STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 290801
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...FORMING IN A REGION OF 600-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MN. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER PARTS OF SD AND
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD REGION OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO THE WEST SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR HOLD THERE
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST...SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING
INTO MICH TONIGHT. DECENT RESPONSE IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOME HINTS THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME 800-900 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THIS IS UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT AS AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE I-94 CORRIDOR
NORTH-EAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT HOW FAR THESE
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND WEST IS QUESTIONABLE. THINK AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COOLER...WETTER PATTERN TAKES OVER THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY
TO A MORE ACTIVE-CYCLONICALLY FAVORED FLOW.

MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING 3 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SWINGING THE AXIS OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST WILL ORIGINATE AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
WILL SLIP IN BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE...MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. THE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT
OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRI. IT WILL HELP CARVE OUT/DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DOES.

WHILE THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL STAY WEST/NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL DRIVE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE ARM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. BROAD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FUEL WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING AREA
OF SHOWERS. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE NAM AND
GFS...BUT MOST OF THIS HOLDS ACROSS IA. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...THE LESSER THESE
CHANCES.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN RIGHT BEHIND THIS FIRST...AND IS
PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER. IT WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO THE
FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE BAND...BUT WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE SOME SATURATION ISSUES HERE TOO...AS
MODELS SUGGEST DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE RAIN BAND.
SO...IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE MINIMAL.

THE CANADA SHORTWAVE IS NEXT...AND LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH. STRONG 300-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS
IT DOES. DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT. IT WILL BRING ITS OWN SATURATION THOUGH...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. CURRENT MODELS TRENDS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI.

ON THE WHOLE...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
COME TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

WITH THIS SHIFT AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF RECENT
DAYS...COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND IS GOING TO LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THE WARM AND
SUNNY ONE THAT JUST WRAPPED UP. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOME HINTS THAT A RIPPLE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SPIN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
AT OR BELOW THE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CHANGES ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF IT...WINDS
HAVE GONE LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN A MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS...SO
SOME FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS. HAVE
DOWNED THE VIS/CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING AT LSE BEFORE
IMPROVING AS THE COLD FRONT GETS IN AROUND DAY BREAK. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY START OUT AT VFR BUT SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER LOW DECK WILL MOVE IN AND STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 290450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CHANGES ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF IT...WINDS
HAVE GONE LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN A MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS...SO
SOME FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS.
HAVE DOWNED THE VIS/CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING AT LSE BEFORE
IMPROVING AS THE COLD FRONT GETS IN AROUND DAY BREAK. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY START OUT AT VFR BUT SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER LOW DECK WILL MOVE IN AND STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 290450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CHANGES ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF IT...WINDS
HAVE GONE LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN A MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS...SO
SOME FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS.
HAVE DOWNED THE VIS/CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING AT LSE BEFORE
IMPROVING AS THE COLD FRONT GETS IN AROUND DAY BREAK. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY START OUT AT VFR BUT SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER LOW DECK WILL MOVE IN AND STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 282356
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
656 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHICH COULD
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES...SO HAVE NOT DROPPED VISIBILITY
MUCH. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 282356
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
656 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WHICH COULD
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES...SO HAVE NOT DROPPED VISIBILITY
MUCH. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 282007
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SFC-925MB WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SENDS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS AND FALLING
PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG. REMOVED THE BR MENTION FROM KRST BUT DID
LEAVE A 5SM BR AT KLSE IN THE 09Z-1430Z PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE MS VALLEY DURING THAT TIME. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG THRU THE TAF
SITES AROUND MID MORNING MON...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A BKN
4K-5K FT STRATO-CU DECK TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 282007
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST OVER THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 28.12Z MODELS ALL HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA
VERY SIMILARLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
ONTARIO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TAKES THE BEST FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SOME WEAK QG CONVERGENCE OCCURS
IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
ABOUT 1 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ALL
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT ENOUGH OTHER FORCING SIGNALS TO
MAINTAIN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL THEN GET PUSHED EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB SHOULD COME THROUGH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UP
GLIDE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE
28.12Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 1 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE. THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE WEST OF THE AREA BUT THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE AXIS DOES
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE RAIN CHANCES TO KEEP THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY EVENING DRY AND BRING IN UP TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN COME THROUGH WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THURSDAY WITH A THIRD AND POTENTIALLY THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALL THIS FORCING...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH UP TO 60/70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SFC-925MB WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SENDS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS AND FALLING
PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG. REMOVED THE BR MENTION FROM KRST BUT DID
LEAVE A 5SM BR AT KLSE IN THE 09Z-1430Z PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE MS VALLEY DURING THAT TIME. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG THRU THE TAF
SITES AROUND MID MORNING MON...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A BKN
4K-5K FT STRATO-CU DECK TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 281720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUN-FILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SFC-925MB WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SENDS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS AND FALLING
PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG. REMOVED THE BR MENTION FROM KRST BUT DID
LEAVE A 5SM BR AT KLSE IN THE 09Z-1430Z PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE MS VALLEY DURING THAT TIME. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG THRU THE TAF
SITES AROUND MID MORNING MON...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A BKN
4K-5K FT STRATO-CU DECK TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 281720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUN-FILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT 4K-5K FT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SFC-925MB WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SENDS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS AND FALLING
PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG. REMOVED THE BR MENTION FROM KRST BUT DID
LEAVE A 5SM BR AT KLSE IN THE 09Z-1430Z PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE MS VALLEY DURING THAT TIME. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG THRU THE TAF
SITES AROUND MID MORNING MON...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A BKN
4K-5K FT STRATO-CU DECK TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 281121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUNFILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON VALLEY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLE REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FROM 12-14Z FOR AREAS OF
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO SET UP WHICH WILL IMPACT KLSE. LOOK FOR
THIS FOG TO BURN OFF BY 15Z...SETTING UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS
TIME...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS THERE WILL BE A
SOUTHWEST WIND AT BLUFFTOP FLOW AT 10-15KT...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
MORE OF A IFR RIVER VALLEY STRATUS POTENTIAL INSTEAD. AT THIS
POINT...INTRODUCED A 5SM SCT003 MENTION AT KLSE IN THE MONDAY
09-12Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 281121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUNFILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOCUSES ON VALLEY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLE REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FROM 12-14Z FOR AREAS OF
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO SET UP WHICH WILL IMPACT KLSE. LOOK FOR
THIS FOG TO BURN OFF BY 15Z...SETTING UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS
TIME...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS THERE WILL BE A
SOUTHWEST WIND AT BLUFFTOP FLOW AT 10-15KT...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
MORE OF A IFR RIVER VALLEY STRATUS POTENTIAL INSTEAD. AT THIS
POINT...INTRODUCED A 5SM SCT003 MENTION AT KLSE IN THE MONDAY
09-12Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 280742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUNFILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG THAT FORMS IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AFTER A DRY DAY
TODAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER
ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 280742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A VERY NICE END TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WARM AND SUNFILLED DAY IS
EXPECTED. 500 MB NAEFS HEIGHT ANOMALIES STILL RUNNING AROUND +1. 850
MB TEMPS GOING TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...NEAR 14 C...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WETTER...COOLER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROUGHS TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FIRST FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CANADA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF TRENDS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST MON/MON
NIGHT. A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS WEAKENS WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM HANGS
ONTO A BIT OF FORCING...BUT IS A LITTLE DISJOINTED. MEAGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BUILD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST...AND RIDGING A LOFT TO
DEAL WITH...FEEL THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SPARKING CONVECTION. IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE I-94
CORRIDOR NORTH/EAST WHERE A BETTER MIX OF VARIABLES FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODELS HAVE STAYED REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...LIFTING IT INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL WORK ON THE LEFTOVER SFC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AS IT
SWEEPS IN WITH ITS OWN WARM FRONT. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR FUEL...EXPECT A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE/FRONTOGENETIC BAND
OF PCPN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUE...SLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. MODELS POINT TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THE NEW SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT. SHOULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THU NIGHT.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TUMBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG THAT FORMS IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AFTER A DRY DAY
TODAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER
ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 280446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NOW DOWN TO
5F AT 4Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE AT ABOUT 4KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH IS A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WIND OFF OF THE LA CROSSE
RIVER BASIN. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE BELOW 10KTS ALL THE WAY
UP TO 10KFT BUT THERE REMAINS SOME HIGHER WINDS RIGHT AT THE
INVERSION. THE PAST FEW RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHOWING SOME
VERTICAL MOTIONS OCCURRING WHEN YOU WOULD PREFER TO HAVE MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR. THERE ISN/T ANY STRATUS SHOWING UP AT THE
MOMENT...SO EXPECT THAT IF THE FOG/STRATUS DOES FORM THAT IT WILL
BE CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 280446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NOW DOWN TO
5F AT 4Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE AT ABOUT 4KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH IS A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WIND OFF OF THE LA CROSSE
RIVER BASIN. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE BELOW 10KTS ALL THE WAY
UP TO 10KFT BUT THERE REMAINS SOME HIGHER WINDS RIGHT AT THE
INVERSION. THE PAST FEW RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHOWING SOME
VERTICAL MOTIONS OCCURRING WHEN YOU WOULD PREFER TO HAVE MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR. THERE ISN/T ANY STRATUS SHOWING UP AT THE
MOMENT...SO EXPECT THAT IF THE FOG/STRATUS DOES FORM THAT IT WILL
BE CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 272329
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG THAT FORMS IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AFTER A DRY DAY
TODAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER
ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 272329
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG THAT FORMS IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AFTER A DRY DAY
TODAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER
ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 271942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE 27.12Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND INDICATES WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP. COULD BE A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG FLOATING AROUND FROM THE OTHER VALLEYS THAT WILL
DECOUPLE MORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE BCFG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANYTHING AROUND KLSE. KRST DID HAVE A
SHORT PERIOD MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE THIS HAPPENING
AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND THE UPSLOPING THAT THIS
CREATES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04




000
FXUS63 KARX 271942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.

GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE 27.12Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND INDICATES WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP. COULD BE A
LITTLE BIT OF FOG FLOATING AROUND FROM THE OTHER VALLEYS THAT WILL
DECOUPLE MORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE BCFG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANYTHING AROUND KLSE. KRST DID HAVE A
SHORT PERIOD MVFR FOG THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE THIS HAPPENING
AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND THE UPSLOPING THAT THIS
CREATES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04





000
FXUS63 KARX 271725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE RETROGRADED CUTOFF LOW IS MEANDERING OVER IA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND IS SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IA.
MODELS FAVOR DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE MN/IA TODAY BEFORE KILLING IT
OFF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFS AND NAM
DEVELOP AROUND 1K J/KG OF MAKEUP THIS AFTERNOON...RIGHT UNDER THE
LOW. NO BOUNDARY TO FOCUS PCPN CHANCES...SO MOST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO REST ON THE INSTABILITY/UPPER LOW
INTERACTION. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS DEVELOP SPOTTY SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE LIFT AND ENVIRONMENT. WILL ADD SMALL CHANCES TO
FAR WEST - SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. TRACK WOULD TAKE
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND QG
CONVERGENCE HOLDS NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC LIFT INDICATED WITH THE
SYSTEM/S ACCOMPANYING SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH STRETCHES WEST-EAST AS IT
MOVES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES...BUT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DOES
BUILD AHEAD OF SYSTEM SUN/MON. THE DEEPER SATURATION SITS WELL TO
THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ALL SAID...PROBABLY ENOUGH
LIFT AROUND THE BOUNDARY THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPARK ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANKS OF FRONT...IN THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH AND EAST.

NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK. A CUTOFF 500 MB WEST COAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO GET
CAUGHT BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY 00Z
THU. WHILE MUCH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MISS THE LOCAL
AREA...IT WILL DRAG ITS NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING SFC FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THU...ALLOWING FOR OTHER BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO WORK ON IT.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY DOES
WORK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COULD HELP SPARK A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WOULD START TO BRING A
SHOWER THREAT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH
SHOWER CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE 27.12Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND INDICATES WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP.
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF FOG FLOATING AROUND FROM THE OTHER
VALLEYS THAT WILL DECOUPLE MORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE BCFG
MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANYTHING
AROUND KLSE. KRST DID HAVE A SHORT PERIOD MVFR FOG THIS MORNING
AND COULD SEE THIS HAPPENING AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND
THE UPSLOPING THAT THIS CREATES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




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