Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KARX 311125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BUNDLE THE TRICK OR TREATERS UP TONIGHT AS IT PROMISES TO BE A
CHILLY ONE. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF PCPN OVER WI -
SNOW/RAIN - WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MICH THIS
MORNING. PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF WI...BUT EXIT BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY START TO
HALLOWEEN...BUT SHOULD START SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THE KIDS VENTURE
OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S
THOUGH...WITH THE WINDS MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET A FEW DEGREE BUMP FROM THE COLD READINGS OF
TODAY/SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL FOR THE START OF
NOVEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS
ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...HUGGING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH INTO ILL. A SFC FRONT WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED VIA THE GFS WITH THE
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY MON EVENING AND HIGHLIGHTED ON THE 900 MB SFC.
FAIRLY BAGGY SFC GRADIENT THOUGH. GOOD PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THOUGH THE LAYERS WILL ADD SOME LIFT. MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
AND GEM SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD THE MAIN PIECE
OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DECENT SHOT
FOR PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS RIPPLE...AND THUS IS DRIER FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 31.00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS PCPN AXIS TO
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...ALA THE GFS/GEM. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
FOR A WET NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
STILL AMPLE TIME FOR ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL STAY
WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND
MORE ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
AROUND THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD...DRY CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT 3K-4K FT STRATO-CU WILL LINGER
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC AND GOOD VFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CENTER PASSING OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THRU
THE AFTERNOON THEN GENERALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 310729
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BUNDLE THE TRICK OR TREATERS UP TONIGHT AS IT PROMISES TO BE A
CHILLY ONE. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF PCPN OVER WI -
SNOW/RAIN - WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MICH THIS
MORNING. PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF WI...BUT EXIT BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY START TO
HALLOWEEN...BUT SHOULD START SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THE KIDS VENTURE
OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S
THOUGH...WITH THE WINDS MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET A FEW DEGREE BUMP FROM THE COLD READINGS OF
TODAY/SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL FOR THE START OF
NOVEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS
ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...HUGGING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH INTO ILL. A SFC FRONT WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED VIA THE GFS WITH THE
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY MON EVENING AND HIGHLIGHTED ON THE 900 MB SFC.
FAIRLY BAGGY SFC GRADIENT THOUGH. GOOD PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THOUGH THE LAYERS WILL ADD SOME LIFT. MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
AND GEM SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD THE MAIN PIECE
OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DECENT SHOT
FOR PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS RIPPLE...AND THUS IS DRIER FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 31.00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS PCPN AXIS TO
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...ALA THE GFS/GEM. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
FOR A WET NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
STILL AMPLE TIME FOR ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL STAY
WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND
MORE ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
AROUND THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT RST/LSE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN REGARD TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL GUST AND WHEN THEY
WILL START TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-22KTS
WITH GUSTS UP BETWEEN 25-30KTS AND SHOULD STAY THIS WAY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 310445
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE CHANGING CONDITIONS TAKING
PLACE AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REGION AS OF 9PM WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS NOW INTO
THE 20-30KT RANGE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS POTENT
TROUGH WHICH HAS A TROP FOLD DOWN TO AROUND 700MB ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK AND BRIEF WITH
VISIBILITY ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 3SM AT ITS LOWEST POINT.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT IF THERE IS ANY
REGION THAT COULD SEE SOME OF THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IT IS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS STAYING UP INTO THE 20-35KT RANGE AND REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT RST/LSE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN REGARD TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL GUST AND WHEN
THEY WILL START TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND
15-22KTS WITH GUSTS UP BETWEEN 25-30KTS AND SHOULD STAY THIS WAY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF THE
WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 310205
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE CHANGING CONDITIONS TAKING
PLACE AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REGION AS OF 9PM WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS NOW INTO
THE 20-30KT RANGE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS POTENT
TROUGH WHICH HAS A TROP FOLD DOWN TO AROUND 700MB ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK AND BRIEF WITH
VISIBILITY ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 3SM AT ITS LOWEST POINT.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT IF THERE IS ANY
REGION THAT COULD SEE SOME OF THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IT IS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS STAYING UP INTO THE 20-35KT RANGE AND REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT IS ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH
THE TAF SITES WHICH WILL BRING WINDS UP CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH A
LOWERING CLOUD DECK. AT 00Z...THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE
AND WAS DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ANG BEGIN GUSTING TO AROUND
15-20KTS. MOST OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VFR AT 3-5KFT...BUT THERE IS A
BAND OF 2-3KFT MVFR THAT IS IN IT WHICH COULD COME THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 302358
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
658 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT IS ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH
THE TAF SITES WHICH WILL BRING WINDS UP CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH A
LOWERING CLOUD DECK. AT 00Z...THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE
AND WAS DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ANG BEGIN GUSTING TO AROUND
15-20KTS. MOST OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VFR AT 3-5KFT...BUT THERE IS A
BAND OF 2-3KFT MVFR THAT IS IN IT WHICH COULD COME THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 302018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 301724
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 301033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR OVERNIGHT...WHILE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAVE BEEN SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES AND HELP TO LOWER CEILINGS. BOTH LSE
AND RST SHOULD SEE CEILINGS FALL...INTO THE MVFR RANGE...FOR A
TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS DRIER CANADIAN AIR FLOWS IN
AND CLEARS THE CLOUD OUT. IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KT APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN PRESSURES SHOULD RISE RAPIDLY.
GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE IN THE TAFS IF TRENDS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO THE WINDY SCENARIO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 300732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE 30.00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT
3 HOURS FROM THE 29.18Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900
TO 800 MB STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND THE STEEPEST 850 TO 950 MB
LAPSE RATES. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BACK CLOSE
TO 31.00Z INSTEAD OF 30.19Z. WITH THE BEST 950 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF KRST BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY 31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 300459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1159 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. MID CLOUDS START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. IN FACT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
WE HAVE FELT SO FAR THIS FALL. 850 MB STANDARDIZED  ANOMALIES
FALL TO AROUND -2 SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD COOL VALUES FOR OCTOBER 31ST INTO NOVEMBER 1ST.
THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PV 1.5 SURFACE DIPS TO 780 MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS AT LA CROSSE OR
ROCHESTER. THE LA CROSSE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 1ST IS 15 AND FOR
ROCHESTER THE RECORD LOW IS 10. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR A LOW OF 24 AT LA CROSSE AND A LOW 22 AT ROCHESTER...SO NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS AT THIS TIME. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND -10 C ON FRIDAY TO +3 C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE 30.00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT
3 HOURS FROM THE 29.18Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900
TO 800 MB STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND THE STEEPEST 850 TO 950 MB
LAPSE RATES. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BACK CLOSE
TO 31.00Z INSTEAD OF 30.19Z. WITH THE BEST 950 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF KRST BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY 31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 300459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1159 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. MID CLOUDS START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. IN FACT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
WE HAVE FELT SO FAR THIS FALL. 850 MB STANDARDIZED  ANOMALIES
FALL TO AROUND -2 SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD COOL VALUES FOR OCTOBER 31ST INTO NOVEMBER 1ST.
THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PV 1.5 SURFACE DIPS TO 780 MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS AT LA CROSSE OR
ROCHESTER. THE LA CROSSE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 1ST IS 15 AND FOR
ROCHESTER THE RECORD LOW IS 10. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR A LOW OF 24 AT LA CROSSE AND A LOW 22 AT ROCHESTER...SO NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS AT THIS TIME. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND -10 C ON FRIDAY TO +3 C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE 30.00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT
3 HOURS FROM THE 29.18Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900
TO 800 MB STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND THE STEEPEST 850 TO 950 MB
LAPSE RATES. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST BACK CLOSE
TO 31.00Z INSTEAD OF 30.19Z. WITH THE BEST 950 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
SLIDING SOUTH OF KRST BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY 31.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 292337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. MID CLOUDS START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. IN FACT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
WE HAVE FELT SO FAR THIS FALL. 850 MB STANDARDIZED  ANOMALIES
FALL TO AROUND -2 SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD COOL VALUES FOR OCTOBER 31ST INTO NOVEMBER 1ST.
THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PV 1.5 SURFACE DIPS TO 780 MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS AT LA CROSSE OR
ROCHESTER. THE LA CROSSE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 1ST IS 15 AND FOR
ROCHESTER THE RECORD LOW IS 10. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR A LOW OF 24 AT LA CROSSE AND A LOW 22 AT ROCHESTER...SO NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS AT THIS TIME. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND -10 C ON FRIDAY TO +3 C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LOWER INTO THE 4-6K FOOT RANGE BETWEEN 30.12Z
AND 30.14Z...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND WEST AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

AS THE FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ON THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME UNSTABLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 292002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. MID CLOUDS START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THEN LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. IN FACT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
WE HAVE FELT SO FAR THIS FALL. 850 MB STANDARDIZED  ANOMALIES
FALL TO AROUND -2 SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD COOL VALUES FOR OCTOBER 31ST INTO NOVEMBER 1ST.
THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE PV 1.5 SURFACE DIPS TO 780 MB ACCORDING TO THE NAM. PLAN ON
NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER RAW FOR THE TRICK OR
TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT WE WILL BREAK ANY RECORDS AT LA CROSSE OR
ROCHESTER. THE LA CROSSE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 1ST IS 15 AND FOR
ROCHESTER THE RECORD LOW IS 10. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR A LOW OF 24 AT LA CROSSE AND A LOW 22 AT ROCHESTER...SO NOT
EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS AT THIS TIME. AFTER A COOL DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. 850
MB TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND -10 C ON FRIDAY TO +3 C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A PESKY MVFR DECK CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
TAFS...PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND CAUSE IT TO MIX OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT ANY HOLES THAT HAD OPENED UP HAVE
FILLED BACK IN. BASED ON FORECAST PLOTS OF LOW LEVEL RH...HAVE
BACKED UP THE CLEARING TO THIS EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS THAT THE
RIDGE MOVES IN AND DRIES IT UP. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH BASES LOWERING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS JUST SOME
LOWER CLOUD BASES TOWARD 4KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 291709
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1209 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCE REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. IR SHOWS A MASSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE
REPORTS SHOWING MOST SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES WERE CONFINED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

FOR TODAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO FILLS AND MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
APPEARS DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND BEFORE 12Z DESPITE DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE ON THE 290K SURFACE...OR 850-700MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD COLUMN SATURATION EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWEST 3KFT. HOWEVER...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THIS LOWEST LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACES FOR SCATTERED
SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS
GETTING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS VERY COLD MINUS
3 TO MINUS 5C 925MB AIR SPILLS IN. ADDING TO THE CHILL WILL BE
INCREASING/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PLAN ON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S FRIDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

CANADIAN HIGH/VERY CHILL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. PLAN ON LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
40S.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW
LOWER 50S. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A PESKY MVFR DECK CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
TAFS...PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND CAUSE IT TO MIX OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD DECK...BUT ANY HOLES THAT HAD OPENED UP HAVE
FILLED BACK IN. BASED ON FORECAST PLOTS OF LOW LEVEL RH...HAVE
BACKED UP THE CLEARING TO THIS EVENING WHEN IT APPEARS THAT THE
RIDGE MOVES IN AND DRIES IT UP. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH BASES LOWERING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS JUST SOME
LOWER CLOUD BASES TOWARD 4KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 291121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCE REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. IR SHOWS A MASSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE
REPORTS SHOWING MOST SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES WERE CONFINED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

FOR TODAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO FILLS AND MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
APPEARS DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND BEFORE 12Z DESPITE DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE ON THE 290K SURFACE...OR 850-700MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD COLUMN SATURATION EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWEST 3KFT. HOWEVER...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THIS LOWEST LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACES FOR SCATTERED
SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS
GETTING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS VERY COLD MINUS
3 TO MINUS 5C 925MB AIR SPILLS IN. ADDING TO THE CHILL WILL BE
INCREASING/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PLAN ON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S FRIDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

CANADIAN HIGH/VERY CHILL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. PLAN ON LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
40S.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW
LOWER 50S. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO VFR STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THOUGH SOME
HOLES ARE DEVELOPING IN THE DECK ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.
THESE HOLES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST TIMING APPEARS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY ON TRACK FOR SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD
DECK IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE BRIEF
CLEARING SPELLS COULD OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME ALTOSTRATUS COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BY 03Z...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 290808
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCE REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. IR SHOWS A MASSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE
REPORTS SHOWING MOST SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES WERE CONFINED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

FOR TODAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO FILLS AND MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
APPEARS DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND BEFORE 12Z DESPITE DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE ON THE 290K SURFACE...OR 850-700MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD COLUMN SATURATION EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWEST 3KFT. HOWEVER...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THIS LOWEST LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACES FOR SCATTERED
SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS
GETTING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS VERY COLD MINUS
3 TO MINUS 5C 925MB AIR SPILLS IN. ADDING TO THE CHILL WILL BE
INCREASING/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PLAN ON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S FRIDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

CANADIAN HIGH/VERY CHILL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. PLAN ON LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
40S.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW
LOWER 50S. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. LSE HAS MAINLY BEEN VFR THIS EVENING BUT RECENTLY
DROPPED TO 2800FT AND COULD STAY THERE OR AT LEAST AROUND 3KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RST HAS MAINLY BEEN MVFR BUT DID SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW HANGING AROUND 3KFT AS WELL.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS DOWN AROUND
20KTS OR LOWER. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OR SCATTER OUT WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 290452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA...SPINNING IT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WED NIGHT-THU TIME
FRAME. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIANCES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING...WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW FAVORING MOSTLY A THURSDAY
PASSAGE ACROSS IA. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 925-850 MB SFC...THE
BULK TRACKING ACROSS IA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM BRING
AMPLE SATURATION WITH IT...AND LIGHT PCPN SEEMS PROBABLE AS A
RESULT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF KIND OF EVENT. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHERE THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL SPIN...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKER FEATURE...BUT
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF ITS PCPN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SOME AREAS-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WI.
LOCALLY...THE CHANCES WILL MOSTLY LIE IN THE 1-94 CORRIDOR AND EAST
THU NIGHT. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN ON SAT. A LOT OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO -8 C BY FRI MORNING. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI NIGHTS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS. IF YOU
STILL HAVE STUFF GROWING IN THE GARDEN...YOU WON/T BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A COLD GO OF IT TO
RAKE IN THEIR CANDY HAULS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER.

SOME SIGNALS THEN IN THE MODELS THAT 850-700MB WARMING WILL MOVE UP
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP...BUT ENOUGH INDICATED VIA
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME PCPN COULD BE GENERATED.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL EVENTS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF IS SMALL TO NIL...BUT IT GETS STUFF
WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. LSE HAS MAINLY BEEN VFR THIS EVENING BUT RECENTLY
DROPPED TO 2800FT AND COULD STAY THERE OR AT LEAST AROUND 3KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RST HAS MAINLY BEEN MVFR BUT DID SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW HANGING AROUND 3KFT AS WELL.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS DOWN AROUND
20KTS OR LOWER. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OR SCATTER OUT WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 282335
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA...SPINNING IT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WED NIGHT-THU TIME
FRAME. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIANCES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING...WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW FAVORING MOSTLY A THURSDAY
PASSAGE ACROSS IA. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 925-850 MB SFC...THE
BULK TRACKING ACROSS IA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM BRING
AMPLE SATURATION WITH IT...AND LIGHT PCPN SEEMS PROBABLE AS A
RESULT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF KIND OF EVENT. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHERE THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL SPIN...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKER FEATURE...BUT
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF ITS PCPN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SOME AREAS-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WI.
LOCALLY...THE CHANCES WILL MOSTLY LIE IN THE 1-94 CORRIDOR AND EAST
THU NIGHT. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN ON SAT. A LOT OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO -8 C BY FRI MORNING. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI NIGHTS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS. IF YOU
STILL HAVE STUFF GROWING IN THE GARDEN...YOU WON/T BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A COLD GO OF IT TO
RAKE IN THEIR CANDY HAULS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER.

SOME SIGNALS THEN IN THE MODELS THAT 850-700MB WARMING WILL MOVE UP
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP...BUT ENOUGH INDICATED VIA
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME PCPN COULD BE GENERATED.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL EVENTS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF IS SMALL TO NIL...BUT IT GETS STUFF
WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK AND
WINDS INTO TOMORROW. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING A BIT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT A MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN MVFR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT LEAST...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT 20-30KTS
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE
GUSTS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 281942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA...SPINNING IT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WED NIGHT-THU TIME
FRAME. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIANCES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING...WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW FAVORING MOSTLY A THURSDAY
PASSAGE ACROSS IA. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 925-850 MB SFC...THE
BULK TRACKING ACROSS IA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM BRING
AMPLE SATURATION WITH IT...AND LIGHT PCPN SEEMS PROBABLE AS A
RESULT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF KIND OF EVENT. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHERE THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL SPIN...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKER FEATURE...BUT
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF ITS PCPN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SOME AREAS-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WI.
LOCALLY...THE CHANCES WILL MOSTLY LIE IN THE 1-94 CORRIDOR AND EAST
THU NIGHT. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN ON SAT. A LOT OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO -8 C BY FRI MORNING. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI NIGHTS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS. IF YOU
STILL HAVE STUFF GROWING IN THE GARDEN...YOU WON/T BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A COLD GO OF IT TO
RAKE IN THEIR CANDY HAULS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER.

SOME SIGNALS THEN IN THE MODELS THAT 850-700MB WARMING WILL MOVE UP
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP...BUT ENOUGH INDICATED VIA
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME PCPN COULD BE GENERATED.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL EVENTS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF IS SMALL TO NIL...BUT IT GETS STUFF
WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

925 TO 850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A MVFR DECK IN PLACE FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 281748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLUSTERY/COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ND
WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME CLEARING WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THAT CLOSED LOW OVER ND TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI. PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THINKING SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY
NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE A BLUSTERY AUTUMN DAY IN STORE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI CLOSE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW
FLAKES MAY EVEN MIX IN AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS BUILD-UP FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS LINGER COOLER AIR
ALOFT/SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN...BUT IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING IN THE 40S.

MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT NOW WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM
SHOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF 800-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL THIS
FORCING SIGNAL IS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SMALL-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR SOME REBOUND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...TOPPING OFF
IN THE 50S.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...FEATURING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94. CARRIED 20-30 POPS THERE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION RIGHT
NOW...BUT IF SHOWERS GET VIGOROUS ENOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT DUSTING. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/MIDDLE40S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S
SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH READINGS INCREASING FROM THE 40S/50S ON SUNDAY...INTO
THE 50S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

925 TO 850 MB CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A MVFR DECK IN PLACE FOR THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...25 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities