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000
FXUS63 KARX 071141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE WAVE COMING OUT
OF MANITOBA DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS
THIS WAVE THEN SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES STEADILY
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO BEING JUST AHEAD OF AND THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE SLIDING ACROSS WITH A SHOT OF STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL
COME THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
PAST...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HELPS TO PRODUCE AROUND 1 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LIFT
FROM THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BASED ON
THESE SIGNALS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE COLD FRONT SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 90 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY SO INCREASED THESE CHANCES INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY MORNING AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REALLY START TO DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.

AS FOR THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE
07.00Z MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB...WHICH IS AROUND 50
KNOTS...REMAINS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND IS THEN REPLACED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE
THIS EVENING AND THEN THESE START TO LOWER AND FALL BELOW 8 C/KM
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST SHOWS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THESE ARE
IN THE 9-10 C/KM RANGE BUT THEN ARE GENERALLY 8.5 C/KM OR LESS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE SOUNDINGS SO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS THAT
THE 40 KNOT WINDS SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME CONSISTENTLY GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KMCW...THE SIGNALS
ARE BETTER FOR THE WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN. THERE IS A GENERAL
SUBSIDENT SIGNAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 UBAR/S OR SO. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT
IS GOING TO BE WINDY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS
HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW TO
MOVE AROUND THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FLUFFY THAT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT GETS LOFTED. THE
CONDITION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS STILL A CONCERN. THE
EVENING SHIFT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE DODGE COUNTY EM REPORTING THAT THE SNOW
PACK DOES HAVE A CRUST TO IT...BUT THAT THE VERY TOP PART IS STILL
AVAILABLE TO MOVE AS THERE WAS SOME DRIFTING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REPORT INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AVAILABLE TO BE MOVED...BUT THE CRUSTING IS A
CONCERN AND IF THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS OR
NOT.

THE OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS STILL
INDICATES THAT WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
TRUE BLIZZARD ARE VERY LOW. WHERE THESE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE
SOME IS STILL OVER THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FALLING SNOW IS THROWN INTO THE
EQUATION...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A BLIZZARD DO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INTO THE RANGE WHERE OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE RURAL AREAS. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE CONFIDENCE IN A TRUE BLIZZARD OCCURRING STILL
REMAINS RATHER LOW. FEEL GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS
WHEN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND
SOME IMPACTS TO THE DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHETHER THESE WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE MODEL DATA...FEEL THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO GO
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO COVER THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HAVE COLLABORATED THE STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND WILL START
BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SO WILL END THE HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AT NOON WHILE CONTINUING THEM UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE LONGER THAN NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS PERIOD NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING WELL
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND WITH THIS
PATTERN...ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THEY DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. VISIBILITIES WILL REDUCED AT TIMES TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KRST STARTING AT 07.23Z...AND AT
KLSE AFTER 08.01Z. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 071141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
541 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE WAVE COMING OUT
OF MANITOBA DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS
THIS WAVE THEN SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES STEADILY
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO BEING JUST AHEAD OF AND THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE SLIDING ACROSS WITH A SHOT OF STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL
COME THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
PAST...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HELPS TO PRODUCE AROUND 1 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LIFT
FROM THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BASED ON
THESE SIGNALS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE COLD FRONT SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 90 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY SO INCREASED THESE CHANCES INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY MORNING AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REALLY START TO DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.

AS FOR THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE
07.00Z MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB...WHICH IS AROUND 50
KNOTS...REMAINS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND IS THEN REPLACED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE
THIS EVENING AND THEN THESE START TO LOWER AND FALL BELOW 8 C/KM
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST SHOWS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THESE ARE
IN THE 9-10 C/KM RANGE BUT THEN ARE GENERALLY 8.5 C/KM OR LESS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE SOUNDINGS SO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS THAT
THE 40 KNOT WINDS SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME CONSISTENTLY GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KMCW...THE SIGNALS
ARE BETTER FOR THE WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN. THERE IS A GENERAL
SUBSIDENT SIGNAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 UBAR/S OR SO. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT
IS GOING TO BE WINDY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS
HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW TO
MOVE AROUND THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FLUFFY THAT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT GETS LOFTED. THE
CONDITION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS STILL A CONCERN. THE
EVENING SHIFT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE DODGE COUNTY EM REPORTING THAT THE SNOW
PACK DOES HAVE A CRUST TO IT...BUT THAT THE VERY TOP PART IS STILL
AVAILABLE TO MOVE AS THERE WAS SOME DRIFTING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REPORT INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AVAILABLE TO BE MOVED...BUT THE CRUSTING IS A
CONCERN AND IF THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS OR
NOT.

THE OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS STILL
INDICATES THAT WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
TRUE BLIZZARD ARE VERY LOW. WHERE THESE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE
SOME IS STILL OVER THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FALLING SNOW IS THROWN INTO THE
EQUATION...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A BLIZZARD DO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INTO THE RANGE WHERE OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE RURAL AREAS. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE CONFIDENCE IN A TRUE BLIZZARD OCCURRING STILL
REMAINS RATHER LOW. FEEL GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS
WHEN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND
SOME IMPACTS TO THE DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHETHER THESE WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE MODEL DATA...FEEL THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO GO
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO COVER THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HAVE COLLABORATED THE STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND WILL START
BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SO WILL END THE HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AT NOON WHILE CONTINUING THEM UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE LONGER THAN NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS PERIOD NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING WELL
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND WITH THIS
PATTERN...ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THEY DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. VISIBILITIES WILL REDUCED AT TIMES TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KRST STARTING AT 07.23Z...AND AT
KLSE AFTER 08.01Z. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 070946
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE WAVE COMING OUT
OF MANITOBA DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS
THIS WAVE THEN SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES STEADILY
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO BEING JUST AHEAD OF AND THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE SLIDING ACROSS WITH A SHOT OF STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL
COME THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
PAST...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HELPS TO PRODUCE AROUND 1 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LIFT
FROM THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BASED ON
THESE SIGNALS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE COLD FRONT SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 90 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY SO INCREASED THESE CHANCES INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY MORNING AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REALLY START TO DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.

AS FOR THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE
07.00Z MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB...WHICH IS AROUND 50
KNOTS...REMAINS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND IS THEN REPLACED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE
THIS EVENING AND THEN THESE START TO LOWER AND FALL BELOW 8 C/KM
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST SHOWS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THESE ARE
IN THE 9-10 C/KM RANGE BUT THEN ARE GENERALLY 8.5 C/KM OR LESS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE SOUNDINGS SO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS THAT
THE 40 KNOT WINDS SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME CONSISTENTLY GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KMCW...THE SIGNALS
ARE BETTER FOR THE WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN. THERE IS A GENERAL
SUBSIDENT SIGNAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 UBAR/S OR SO. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT
IS GOING TO BE WINDY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS
HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW TO
MOVE AROUND THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FLUFFY THAT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT GETS LOFTED. THE
CONDITION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS STILL A CONCERN. THE
EVENING SHIFT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE DODGE COUNTY EM REPORTING THAT THE SNOW
PACK DOES HAVE A CRUST TO IT...BUT THAT THE VERY TOP PART IS STILL
AVAILABLE TO MOVE AS THERE WAS SOME DRIFTING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REPORT INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AVAILABLE TO BE MOVED...BUT THE CRUSTING IS A
CONCERN AND IF THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS OR
NOT.

THE OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS STILL
INDICATES THAT WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
TRUE BLIZZARD ARE VERY LOW. WHERE THESE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE
SOME IS STILL OVER THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FALLING SNOW IS THROWN INTO THE
EQUATION...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A BLIZZARD DO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INTO THE RANGE WHERE OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE RURAL AREAS. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE CONFIDENCE IN A TRUE BLIZZARD OCCURRING STILL
REMAINS RATHER LOW. FEEL GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS
WHEN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND
SOME IMPACTS TO THE DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHETHER THESE WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE MODEL DATA...FEEL THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO GO
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO COVER THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HAVE COLLABORATED THE STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND WILL START
BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SO WILL END THE HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AT NOON WHILE CONTINUING THEM UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE LONGER THAN NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS PERIOD NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING WELL
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND WITH THIS
PATTERN...ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THEY DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 070946
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE WAVE COMING OUT
OF MANITOBA DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS
THIS WAVE THEN SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES STEADILY
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO BEING JUST AHEAD OF AND THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE SLIDING ACROSS WITH A SHOT OF STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL
COME THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
PAST...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HELPS TO PRODUCE AROUND 1 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LIFT
FROM THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BASED ON
THESE SIGNALS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE COLD FRONT SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 90 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY SO INCREASED THESE CHANCES INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY MORNING AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REALLY START TO DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.

AS FOR THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE
07.00Z MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB...WHICH IS AROUND 50
KNOTS...REMAINS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND IS THEN REPLACED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE
THIS EVENING AND THEN THESE START TO LOWER AND FALL BELOW 8 C/KM
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST SHOWS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THESE ARE
IN THE 9-10 C/KM RANGE BUT THEN ARE GENERALLY 8.5 C/KM OR LESS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE SOUNDINGS SO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS THAT
THE 40 KNOT WINDS SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME CONSISTENTLY GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KMCW...THE SIGNALS
ARE BETTER FOR THE WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN. THERE IS A GENERAL
SUBSIDENT SIGNAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 UBAR/S OR SO. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT
IS GOING TO BE WINDY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS
HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW TO
MOVE AROUND THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FLUFFY THAT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT GETS LOFTED. THE
CONDITION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS STILL A CONCERN. THE
EVENING SHIFT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE DODGE COUNTY EM REPORTING THAT THE SNOW
PACK DOES HAVE A CRUST TO IT...BUT THAT THE VERY TOP PART IS STILL
AVAILABLE TO MOVE AS THERE WAS SOME DRIFTING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REPORT INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AVAILABLE TO BE MOVED...BUT THE CRUSTING IS A
CONCERN AND IF THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS OR
NOT.

THE OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS STILL
INDICATES THAT WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
TRUE BLIZZARD ARE VERY LOW. WHERE THESE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE
SOME IS STILL OVER THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FALLING SNOW IS THROWN INTO THE
EQUATION...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A BLIZZARD DO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INTO THE RANGE WHERE OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE RURAL AREAS. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE CONFIDENCE IN A TRUE BLIZZARD OCCURRING STILL
REMAINS RATHER LOW. FEEL GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS
WHEN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND
SOME IMPACTS TO THE DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHETHER THESE WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE MODEL DATA...FEEL THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO GO
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO COVER THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HAVE COLLABORATED THE STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND WILL START
BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SO WILL END THE HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AT NOON WHILE CONTINUING THEM UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE LONGER THAN NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS PERIOD NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING WELL
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND WITH THIS
PATTERN...ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THEY DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 070946
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE WAVE COMING OUT
OF MANITOBA DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. AS
THIS WAVE THEN SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES STEADILY
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE
MINNESOTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO BEING JUST AHEAD OF AND THE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE MANITOBA SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE SLIDING ACROSS WITH A SHOT OF STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER. THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...MORE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER WILL
COME THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES
PAST...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HELPS TO PRODUCE AROUND 1 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LIFT
FROM THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOLE LOT...MAYBE AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BASED ON
THESE SIGNALS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE COLD FRONT SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH
ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE CHANCES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 90 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY SO INCREASED THESE CHANCES INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY MORNING AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY REALLY START TO DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.

AS FOR THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE
07.00Z MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 850 MB...WHICH IS AROUND 50
KNOTS...REMAINS PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND IS THEN REPLACED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL ALSO BE
THIS EVENING AND THEN THESE START TO LOWER AND FALL BELOW 8 C/KM
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTION BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 07.00Z NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST SHOWS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THESE ARE
IN THE 9-10 C/KM RANGE BUT THEN ARE GENERALLY 8.5 C/KM OR LESS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE SOUNDINGS SO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS THAT
THE 40 KNOT WINDS SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME CONSISTENTLY GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LACK OF
SUBSIDENCE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KMCW...THE SIGNALS
ARE BETTER FOR THE WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN. THERE IS A GENERAL
SUBSIDENT SIGNAL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 UBAR/S OR SO. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT
IS GOING TO BE WINDY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS
HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. THERE WILL BE SOME FRESH SNOW TO
MOVE AROUND THAT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND FLUFFY THAT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN IT GETS LOFTED. THE
CONDITION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS STILL A CONCERN. THE
EVENING SHIFT TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE DODGE COUNTY EM REPORTING THAT THE SNOW
PACK DOES HAVE A CRUST TO IT...BUT THAT THE VERY TOP PART IS STILL
AVAILABLE TO MOVE AS THERE WAS SOME DRIFTING SATURDAY WITH WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REPORT INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW AVAILABLE TO BE MOVED...BUT THE CRUSTING IS A
CONCERN AND IF THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS OR
NOT.

THE OUTPUT FROM THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS STILL
INDICATES THAT WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
TRUE BLIZZARD ARE VERY LOW. WHERE THESE PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE
SOME IS STILL OVER THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHEN THE CHANCES FOR FALLING SNOW IS THROWN INTO THE
EQUATION...THE PROBABILITIES FOR A BLIZZARD DO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INTO THE RANGE WHERE OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE RURAL AREAS. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE CONFIDENCE IN A TRUE BLIZZARD OCCURRING STILL
REMAINS RATHER LOW. FEEL GOOD THAT THERE WILL BE SHORT PERIODS
WHEN BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND
SOME IMPACTS TO THE DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHETHER THESE WILL PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
THE MODEL DATA...FEEL THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO GO
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO COVER THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HAVE COLLABORATED THE STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND WILL START
BOTH THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SO WILL END THE HEADLINES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AT NOON WHILE CONTINUING THEM UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHEAST
IOWA...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE LONGER THAN NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS PERIOD NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHING WELL
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND WITH THIS
PATTERN...ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THEY DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 070548
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 070548
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 070548
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 070334
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 070334
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 070334
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 062354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 062354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 062354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NOW THAT LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AT KRST...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07.21Z WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KRST LATER THIS EVENING. IF THEY DO...STILL EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS. VISIBILITY AT KRST WILL STAY IN THE 4 TO 5 SM RANGE IN
MIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING SUNDAY MORNING. DROPPED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BACK TO MVFR FOR KRST AT 07.21Z AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 08.00Z...SO WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND TURN TO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT KRST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT KRST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY FROM 26 TO
30 KTS WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 062131 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ANOTHER TRICKY STRATUS FORECAST. FIRST THINGS FIRST...KLSE HAS
RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL STAY THAT WAY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT EVER-INCREASING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE
HELPING HOLD THE LOWER STRATUS AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...
KRST REMAINS BURIED IN THICKER LOW STRATUS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...MAYBE LONGER...THOUGH DO
EXPECT SURFACE VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO NUDGE ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KLSE LATER THIS EVENING...
THOUGH HONESTLY THAT REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...
THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT SAME TIME...
THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
BOTH TAF SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
THICKER 4-5KFT CLOUDS ROLLING BACK INTO THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 062119
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ANOTHER TRICKY STRATUS FORECAST. FIRST THINGS FIRST...KLSE HAS
RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL STAY THAT WAY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT EVER-INCREASING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE
HELPING HOLD THE LOWER STRATUS AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...
KRST REMAINS BURIED IN THICKER LOW STRATUS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...MAYBE LONGER...THOUGH DO
EXPECT SURFACE VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO NUDGE ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KLSE LATER THIS EVENING...
THOUGH HONESTLY THAT REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...
THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT SAME TIME...
THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
BOTH TAF SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
THICKER 4-5KFT CLOUDS ROLLING BACK INTO THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 061735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST
MOVING ONTO THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THE 06.00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IT WILL START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS LOW THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08.00Z
AND THEN MOVES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. THERE ARE THREE
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE FIRST IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAVERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET IN THIS AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
UBAR/S ON THE 280K SURFACE AND THE BECOMES STRONGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CANADA. THERE IS ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WITH THIS AGAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL SHOW JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THE SECOND CONCERN THEN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING LOOKS MUCH BETTER IN THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES BY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE UNDERNEATH THE LOW
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE
DISJOINTED AND MAINLY WEAK IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE
A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH A BAND OF 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE THIRD CONCERN IS WITH THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT GOES PAST THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DECENT TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE
1.5 PV INTRUSION GETTING DOWN TO ABOUT 600 MB OR SO. LOOKING AT
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD WINDS AVAILABLE IN THE MIXED LAYER
WITH THESE TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO AT THE TOP OF THIS
MIXED LAYER. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS...50+ KNOTS...LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA
DOWN INTO IOWA...POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
LINING UP NICELY WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB. LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY START OUT BEING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE 06.00Z NAM REALLY SHOWS THESE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST...CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NO REAL
SIGNAL FOR SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIXED LAYER. IN FACT...THERE IS
UPWARD MOTION INDICATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SOUNDING FOR KMCW IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH THIS BEING THE
STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NO DOUBT IT IS
GOING TO BE WINDY AND GUSTY...BUT EXPECTING THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST WINDS TO MISS THE AREA OR JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW BAD WILL CONDITIONS
GET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SNOW FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEW SNOWFALL WHERE THE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHTER AND FLUFFY SNOW WITH RATIOS
OF 13-17 TO 1 EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF THE
SNOWPACK AND THE AVAILABILITY OF IT TO BE PICKED UP AND MOVED. THE
SNOW WITH THE LAST STORM HAD LOWER RATIOS SO THERE WAS MORE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW TO BEGIN WITH. A HARD GLAZE HAD DEVELOPED
LOCALLY ON THE TOP OF THE SNOW...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS
EXTENDS. THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SIGNAL FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS WITH JUST
A SMALL PROBABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIE TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...CAN SEE WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52 AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARD LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SO NO PLANS TO
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE COULD STILL BE A BIT OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
END BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN COME ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ANOTHER TRICKY STRATUS FORECAST. FIRST THINGS FIRST...KLSE HAS
RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL STAY THAT WAY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT EVER-INCREASING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE
HELPING HOLD THE LOWER STRATUS AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...
KRST REMAINS BURIED IN THICKER LOW STRATUS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...MAYBE LONGER...THOUGH DO
EXPECT SURFACE VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO NUDGE ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KLSE LATER THIS EVENING...
THOUGH HONESTLY THAT REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...
THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT SAME TIME...
THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
BOTH TAF SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
THICKER 4-5KFT CLOUDS ROLLING BACK INTO THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 061143
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST
MOVING ONTO THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THE 06.00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IT WILL START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS LOW THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08.00Z
AND THEN MOVES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. THERE ARE THREE
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE FIRST IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAVERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET IN THIS AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
UBAR/S ON THE 280K SURFACE AND THE BECOMES STRONGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CANADA. THERE IS ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WITH THIS AGAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL SHOW JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THE SECOND CONCERN THEN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING LOOKS MUCH BETTER IN THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES BY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE UNDERNEATH THE LOW
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE
DISJOINTED AND MAINLY WEAK IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE
A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH A BAND OF 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE THIRD CONCERN IS WITH THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT GOES PAST THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DECENT TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE
1.5 PV INTRUSION GETTING DOWN TO ABOUT 600 MB OR SO. LOOKING AT
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD WINDS AVAILABLE IN THE MIXED LAYER
WITH THESE TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO AT THE TOP OF THIS
MIXED LAYER. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS...50+ KNOTS...LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA
DOWN INTO IOWA...POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
LINING UP NICELY WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB. LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY START OUT BEING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE 06.00Z NAM REALLY SHOWS THESE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST...CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NO REAL
SIGNAL FOR SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIXED LAYER. IN FACT...THERE IS
UPWARD MOTION INDICATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SOUNDING FOR KMCW IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH THIS BEING THE
STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NO DOUBT IT IS
GOING TO BE WINDY AND GUSTY...BUT EXPECTING THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST WINDS TO MISS THE AREA OR JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW BAD WILL CONDITIONS
GET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SNOW FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEW SNOWFALL WHERE THE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHTER AND FLUFFY SNOW WITH RATIOS
OF 13-17 TO 1 EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF THE
SNOWPACK AND THE AVAILABILITY OF IT TO BE PICKED UP AND MOVED. THE
SNOW WITH THE LAST STORM HAD LOWER RATIOS SO THERE WAS MORE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW TO BEGIN WITH. A HARD GLAZE HAD DEVELOPED
LOCALLY ON THE TOP OF THE SNOW...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS
EXTENDS. THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SIGNAL FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS WITH JUST
A SMALL PROBABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIE TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...CAN SEE WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52 AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARD LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SO NO PLANS TO
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE COULD STILL BE A BIT OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
END BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN COME ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A WEAK TROUGH PRODUCED WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE WINDS
TO WEST THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THEN THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. IFR
CEILINGS AND MVRF VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...AND THEN BECOME VFR AT KRST AROUND
06.15Z AND KLSE AROUND 06.18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 061143
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST
MOVING ONTO THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THE 06.00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IT WILL START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS LOW THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08.00Z
AND THEN MOVES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. THERE ARE THREE
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE FIRST IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAVERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET IN THIS AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
UBAR/S ON THE 280K SURFACE AND THE BECOMES STRONGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CANADA. THERE IS ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WITH THIS AGAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL SHOW JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THE SECOND CONCERN THEN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING LOOKS MUCH BETTER IN THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES BY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE UNDERNEATH THE LOW
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE
DISJOINTED AND MAINLY WEAK IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE
A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH A BAND OF 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE THIRD CONCERN IS WITH THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT GOES PAST THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DECENT TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE
1.5 PV INTRUSION GETTING DOWN TO ABOUT 600 MB OR SO. LOOKING AT
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD WINDS AVAILABLE IN THE MIXED LAYER
WITH THESE TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO AT THE TOP OF THIS
MIXED LAYER. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS...50+ KNOTS...LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA
DOWN INTO IOWA...POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
LINING UP NICELY WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB. LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY START OUT BEING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE 06.00Z NAM REALLY SHOWS THESE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST...CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NO REAL
SIGNAL FOR SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIXED LAYER. IN FACT...THERE IS
UPWARD MOTION INDICATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SOUNDING FOR KMCW IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH THIS BEING THE
STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NO DOUBT IT IS
GOING TO BE WINDY AND GUSTY...BUT EXPECTING THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST WINDS TO MISS THE AREA OR JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW BAD WILL CONDITIONS
GET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SNOW FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEW SNOWFALL WHERE THE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHTER AND FLUFFY SNOW WITH RATIOS
OF 13-17 TO 1 EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF THE
SNOWPACK AND THE AVAILABILITY OF IT TO BE PICKED UP AND MOVED. THE
SNOW WITH THE LAST STORM HAD LOWER RATIOS SO THERE WAS MORE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW TO BEGIN WITH. A HARD GLAZE HAD DEVELOPED
LOCALLY ON THE TOP OF THE SNOW...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS
EXTENDS. THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SIGNAL FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS WITH JUST
A SMALL PROBABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIE TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...CAN SEE WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52 AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARD LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SO NO PLANS TO
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE COULD STILL BE A BIT OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
END BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN COME ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A WEAK TROUGH PRODUCED WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE WINDS
TO WEST THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THEN THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. IFR
CEILINGS AND MVRF VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...AND THEN BECOME VFR AT KRST AROUND
06.15Z AND KLSE AROUND 06.18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 060915
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST
MOVING ONTO THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA SHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THE 06.00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING WITH IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IT WILL START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG.
THIS LOW THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08.00Z
AND THEN MOVES EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. THERE ARE THREE
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE FIRST IS WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAVERING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET IN THIS AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
UBAR/S ON THE 280K SURFACE AND THE BECOMES STRONGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO CANADA. THERE IS ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WITH THIS AGAIN BECOMING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL SHOW JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THE SECOND CONCERN THEN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING LOOKS MUCH BETTER IN THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES BY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE UNDERNEATH THE LOW
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE QG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE
DISJOINTED AND MAINLY WEAK IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE
A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 850-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH A BAND OF 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 280K SURFACE. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE THIRD CONCERN IS WITH THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT GOES PAST THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DECENT TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH THE
1.5 PV INTRUSION GETTING DOWN TO ABOUT 600 MB OR SO. LOOKING AT
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD WINDS AVAILABLE IN THE MIXED LAYER
WITH THESE TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO AT THE TOP OF THIS
MIXED LAYER. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS...50+ KNOTS...LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA
DOWN INTO IOWA...POSSIBLY JUST TOUCHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
LINING UP NICELY WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB. LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY START OUT BEING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE 06.00Z NAM REALLY SHOWS THESE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST...CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NO REAL
SIGNAL FOR SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIXED LAYER. IN FACT...THERE IS
UPWARD MOTION INDICATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SOUNDING FOR KMCW IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH THIS BEING THE
STRONGEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NO DOUBT IT IS
GOING TO BE WINDY AND GUSTY...BUT EXPECTING THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST WINDS TO MISS THE AREA OR JUST BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW BAD WILL CONDITIONS
GET. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SNOW FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEW SNOWFALL WHERE THE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LIGHTER AND FLUFFY SNOW WITH RATIOS
OF 13-17 TO 1 EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATE OF THE
SNOWPACK AND THE AVAILABILITY OF IT TO BE PICKED UP AND MOVED. THE
SNOW WITH THE LAST STORM HAD LOWER RATIOS SO THERE WAS MORE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW TO BEGIN WITH. A HARD GLAZE HAD DEVELOPED
LOCALLY ON THE TOP OF THE SNOW...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS
EXTENDS. THE EXPERIMENTAL BLOWING SNOW GRIDS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SIGNAL FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS WITH JUST
A SMALL PROBABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIE TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...CAN SEE WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 52 AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF WHITEOUTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
GROUND BLIZZARD LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SO NO PLANS TO
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE COULD STILL BE A BIT OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
END BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN COME ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM IN MIST AT KRST.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY IN
FOG CURRENTLY ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
THINK IT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 06.14 TO 06.15Z PERIOD...
CONTINUING THEREAFTER THROUGH 07.06Z WITH ONLY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 12 AND 16 KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 07.00Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 060528
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM IN MIST AT KRST.
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME SUB 1 SM VISIBILITY IN
FOG CURRENTLY ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
THINK IT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE 06.14 TO 06.15Z PERIOD...
CONTINUING THEREAFTER THROUGH 07.06Z WITH ONLY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 12 AND 16 KTS SUSTAINED AFTER 07.00Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 052348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT KRST. APPEARS MOST SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KLSE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06.06Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN NEAR THE SATURDAY
MORNING SUNRISE. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY WITH 3SM IN
MIST ALONG WITH 1000 FT CEILINGS BEGINNING AT 06.10Z. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS BY MID-SATURDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 052348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT KRST. APPEARS MOST SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KLSE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06.06Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN NEAR THE SATURDAY
MORNING SUNRISE. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY WITH 3SM IN
MIST ALONG WITH 1000 FT CEILINGS BEGINNING AT 06.10Z. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS BY MID-SATURDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 052348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT KRST. APPEARS MOST SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KLSE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06.06Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN NEAR THE SATURDAY
MORNING SUNRISE. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY WITH 3SM IN
MIST ALONG WITH 1000 FT CEILINGS BEGINNING AT 06.10Z. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS BY MID-SATURDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 052029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (STILL A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST). LOWER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS LOWERING
DOWN TO A FOG DECK LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE HIGHEST ON
JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO...BUT IF WE CAN LOSE THE STRATUS
FOR A TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...
AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR KRST. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KARX 052029
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (STILL A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST). LOWER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS LOWERING
DOWN TO A FOG DECK LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE HIGHEST ON
JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO...BUT IF WE CAN LOSE THE STRATUS
FOR A TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...
AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR KRST. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 051744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (STILL A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST). LOWER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS LOWERING
DOWN TO A FOG DECK LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE HIGHEST ON
JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO...BUT IF WE CAN LOSE THE STRATUS
FOR A TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...
AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR KRST. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 051744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (STILL A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST). LOWER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS LOWERING
DOWN TO A FOG DECK LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE HIGHEST ON
JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO...BUT IF WE CAN LOSE THE STRATUS
FOR A TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...
AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR KRST. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KARX 051744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z...BUT
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (STILL A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST). LOWER STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS LOWERING
DOWN TO A FOG DECK LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE HIGHEST ON
JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO...BUT IF WE CAN LOSE THE STRATUS
FOR A TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP...
AGAIN MOST LIKELY FOR KRST. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KARX 051146
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FROM THE OFFICE...IT APPEARS THAT THE DENSE FOG IS LOCALIZED AT
KLSE. AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE
THAT THE DENSE FOG AT KLSE WILL DISSIPATE BY 05.14Z.

FOR TODAY...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KRST BETWEEN 06.02Z AND 06.03Z AT KRST AND
THEN END AROUND 06.07Z. FOR KLSE...IT WILL BE AN HOUR LATER. ONCE
THE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
A MILE....AND THEN IMPROVE TO AROUND 4 SM WITH BR AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 051146
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FROM THE OFFICE...IT APPEARS THAT THE DENSE FOG IS LOCALIZED AT
KLSE. AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE
THAT THE DENSE FOG AT KLSE WILL DISSIPATE BY 05.14Z.

FOR TODAY...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KRST BETWEEN 06.02Z AND 06.03Z AT KRST AND
THEN END AROUND 06.07Z. FOR KLSE...IT WILL BE AN HOUR LATER. ONCE
THE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
A MILE....AND THEN IMPROVE TO AROUND 4 SM WITH BR AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A HALF INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 050849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 050849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 050849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 05.00Z MODELS ARE ALL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN MOST WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AND MISSING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
THE LOCAL REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH NOT A LOT OF FORCING. THE
WAVE GOING ACROSS IOWA LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER THIS EVENING BUT ANY QG
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER. THERE IS NO FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY BETWEEN
1 AND 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 280K ISENTROPIC SYSTEM. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KMDZ DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE OMEGA THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND ONLY REACHES
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST SOME FLURRIES OR A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THEN
START TO INTENSIFY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LEVEL IS SHOWN TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON THIS OCCURS. THE 05.00Z
GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO TURN IT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 05.00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE GFS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MORE NORTHERN ECMWF AND GEM
KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND DO NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION COMING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL HONOR
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKE THIS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 050538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 050538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 050538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ALONG A LINE FROM KCCY TO
KEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KTS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR KLSE
BY 05.07Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. NOT UNTIL AFTER 06.00Z MIGHT SOME MVFR CLOUDS
START TO IMPACT KRST WHILE KLSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5 SM. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 042330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS OF 04.2330Z
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
KLSE BY 05.01Z. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM 3 TO 5 SM POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SNOW. BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS NOW JUST WEST OF LINE
FROM KMSP TO KAEL...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST BY 05.02Z AND 05.05Z AT KLSE.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/LOWERING CEILINGS FOR THE 05.06Z TAFS GIVEN ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 042330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

LIGHT BAND OF SNOW ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS OF 04.2330Z
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
KLSE BY 05.01Z. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM 3 TO 5 SM POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SNOW. BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS NOW JUST WEST OF LINE
FROM KMSP TO KAEL...MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST BY 05.02Z AND 05.05Z AT KLSE.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/LOWERING CEILINGS FOR THE 05.06Z TAFS GIVEN ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 041953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BAND OF -SN WAS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT MID-DAY...BUT HAS
SLOWED A BIT. NOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KRST AREAS IN THE 1930-
2230Z PERIOD AND KLSE IN THE 2130-0030Z PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS IN
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY WEAKENS
THIS SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS...BUT DID INCLUDE A 2 HR TEMPO
PERIOD OF 2SM IN -SN AT BOTH SITES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND SNOW
BAND PASS...LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT /CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL MN AT THIS TIME/ AND CARRIED ONLY SCT CLOUD DECKS MUCH OF
TONIGHT. IF SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL HAVE
WATCH FOR PATCHY BR ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS
RIGHT NOW AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ALREADY STARTS TO APPROACH
ON FRI. IMPACTS FRI MORNING WILL MAINLY BE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN CHANCES
SPREADING IN LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS





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