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000
FXUS63 KARX 192320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE MESO SCALE
MODELS ARE NOW FOCUSING ON NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE INITIATION POINT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS...UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH HOW MUCH CONVECTION THEN FILLS IN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE 19.20Z HRRR WANTS TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 19.12Z HI-RES ARW
WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WOULD NOT FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL
IT WAS PAST THE TAF SITES. THE 19.18Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE HI-RES
ARW WHILE THE 19.18Z CR-NAMNEST IS CLOSER TO THE HRRR. SO FOR
NOW...UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE...WILL
STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SHOWING A VCTS AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 192320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE MESO SCALE
MODELS ARE NOW FOCUSING ON NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE INITIATION POINT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS...UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH HOW MUCH CONVECTION THEN FILLS IN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE 19.20Z HRRR WANTS TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 19.12Z HI-RES ARW
WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WOULD NOT FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL
IT WAS PAST THE TAF SITES. THE 19.18Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE HI-RES
ARW WHILE THE 19.18Z CR-NAMNEST IS CLOSER TO THE HRRR. SO FOR
NOW...UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE...WILL
STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SHOWING A VCTS AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 191922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE
VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 191922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE
VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 191744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER
IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 191744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER
IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 191149
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
19.16Z AND 20.01Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KRST
BETWEEN 20.03Z AND 20.08Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 20.05Z AND 20.09Z.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 182324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHING ONTARIO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND
WILL KEEP THE WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING DESPITE
THE 18.18Z NAM SHOWING SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR
KLSE. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WHICH WILL AID IN
THE MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AND WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO
CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE INVERSION
BREAKS FRIDAY MORNING...GOOD MIXING INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPING OFF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 182324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHING ONTARIO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND
WILL KEEP THE WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING DESPITE
THE 18.18Z NAM SHOWING SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR
KLSE. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WHICH WILL AID IN
THE MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AND WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO
CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE INVERSION
BREAKS FRIDAY MORNING...GOOD MIXING INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPING OFF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 181933
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS FIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LSE NOW INTO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CU
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
THAT COULD FORM UNDER THE INVERSION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS STRATUS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND FURTHER TO THE WEST...SO WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 181736
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.

THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP APPEAR INITIALIZE AND HANDLE
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY PER THE 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HANGS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ERODES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 18.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305K SURFACE BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS LIFT...WARRANTS A
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE 18.0ZZ GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND FOCUSES LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 00-06Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND TAKING THE BULK OF LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A COUPLE HUNDRED ELEVATED CAPE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 18.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS FIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LSE NOW INTO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CU
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
THAT COULD FORM UNDER THE INVERSION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS STRATUS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND FURTHER TO THE WEST...SO WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 181736
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.

THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP APPEAR INITIALIZE AND HANDLE
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY PER THE 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HANGS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ERODES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 18.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305K SURFACE BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS LIFT...WARRANTS A
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE 18.0ZZ GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND FOCUSES LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 00-06Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND TAKING THE BULK OF LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A COUPLE HUNDRED ELEVATED CAPE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 18.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS FIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LSE NOW INTO VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VFR CU
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
THAT COULD FORM UNDER THE INVERSION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS STRATUS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND FURTHER TO THE WEST...SO WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 181143
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.

THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP APPEAR INITIALIZE AND HANDLE
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY PER THE 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HANGS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ERODES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 18.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305K SURFACE BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS LIFT...WARRANTS A
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE 18.0ZZ GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND FOCUSES LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 00-06Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND TAKING THE BULK OF LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A COUPLE HUNDRED ELEVATED CAPE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 18.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH VFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OUT OF
WISCONSIN TOWARD MINNESOTA AT 1130Z. AN IFR CLOUD DECK WITH SOME
EMBEDDED IFR VSBYS HAS MADE ITS WAY WESTWARD TO THE MN/WI BORDER.
THIS HAS MADE STEADY WESTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.

AT KLSE...RIVER VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WERE FOUND IN THE VALLEY
AND NOW WITH THE IFR CLOUD DECK MOVING OVER THE TOP...BELIEVE IT
WILL SIMPLY REINFORCE THE IFR CONDITIONS...MAKE IT LESS LOCAL TO
THE RIVER VALLEY...AND IMPACT AVIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.

AT KRST...THE WESTWARD PUSH TO THE IFR CIGS AND FRONT SHOULD SLOW
SOME WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING INCREASING. BUT IT IS STILL EARLY
AND HAVE DECIDED TO AT LEAST ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE IFR
CLOUD DECK COULD REACH KRST BEFORE HALTING ITS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION VIA A TEMPO IFR GROUP. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
KRST...IF THE DECK CONTINUES WEST...THE MORNING TAF WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO KLSE WITH IFR THROUGH 16-17Z PREVAILING. UPDATES WILL
BE FORTHCOMING AS CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO GROWS.

BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE LIFTING CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE IN CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO VFR.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 180844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.

THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP APPEAR INITIALIZE AND HANDLE
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY PER THE 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HANGS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ERODES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 18.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305K SURFACE BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS LIFT...WARRANTS A
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE 18.0ZZ GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND FOCUSES LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 00-06Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND TAKING THE BULK OF LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A COUPLE HUNDRED ELEVATED CAPE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 18.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE THE
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT ARE
MOVING SOUTH A SLOWER PACE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE 18.00Z NAM
NOW SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SOME
FOG CAN FORM AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN
SHOWING ALL EVENING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE GONE FOR A VALLEY
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORM AT KRST WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS THURSDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 180844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE CLOUD TRENDS.

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTH AND WEST BEHIND
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT.

THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP APPEAR INITIALIZE AND HANDLE
MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING/TODAY PER THE 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS HANGS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 18.00Z GFS/NAM AND 18.06Z RAP
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z TODAY. IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
ERODES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST 18.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT 305K SURFACE BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 300-800
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS LIFT...WARRANTS A
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
12-18Z FRIDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE 18.0ZZ GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND FOCUSES LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE 00-06Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND TAKING THE BULK OF LIFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW SATURDAY...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A COUPLE HUNDRED ELEVATED CAPE PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE LEFT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 18.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE THE
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT ARE
MOVING SOUTH A SLOWER PACE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE 18.00Z NAM
NOW SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SOME
FOG CAN FORM AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN
SHOWING ALL EVENING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE GONE FOR A VALLEY
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORM AT KRST WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS THURSDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 180441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE THE
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT ARE
MOVING SOUTH A SLOWER PACE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE 18.00Z NAM
NOW SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SOME
FOG CAN FORM AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN
SHOWING ALL EVENING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE GONE FOR A VALLEY
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORM AT KRST WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS THURSDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 180441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE THE
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT ARE
MOVING SOUTH A SLOWER PACE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE 18.00Z NAM
NOW SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SOME
FOG CAN FORM AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT THE RAP HAS BEEN
SHOWING ALL EVENING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE GONE FOR A VALLEY
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORM AT KRST WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS THURSDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 172318
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BAND
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN JUST BEHIND A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. THE 17.18Z
NAM HAS CONTIUNUED THE TREND OF BRINGING THESE CLOUDS SOUTH BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AND MAINTAINED
BRINGING IN A MVFR CEILING LATE TONIGHT AT KLSE AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY FOR KRST. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD
OF THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT SOME FOG COULD
FORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THIS FOG...BUT NOT EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS AS
LONG AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN START TO
SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 172318
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BAND
OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN JUST BEHIND A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. THE 17.18Z
NAM HAS CONTIUNUED THE TREND OF BRINGING THESE CLOUDS SOUTH BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES AND MAINTAINED
BRINGING IN A MVFR CEILING LATE TONIGHT AT KLSE AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY FOR KRST. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD
OF THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT SOME FOG COULD
FORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THIS FOG...BUT NOT EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS AS
LONG AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN START TO
SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 172018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG VCNTY KLSE.
NORMALLY WOULD GO WITH THE THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CONUNDRUM WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MVFR CLOUD
COVER IN ITS WAKE. MEDIUM LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME INCOMING MVFR CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KLSE AND
KRST AS WELL PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. DUE TO THIS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CLOUD COVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AT KLSE AFTER 09Z. THINKING THAT
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER //WHICH WOULD ACT TO
MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING/RIVER VALLEY FOG// AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT BLUFFTOP LEVEL WILL KEEP THE VALLEY MIXED A
BIT. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CHANNEL...BUT NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT KLSE. KEPT KRST VFR TIL 09Z...THEN BROUGHT IN 4SM
BR SCT025 IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CLOUDS WILL
THEN BECOME PREVALENT 14-18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 172018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 500 MB
RAP HEIGHTS SHOWED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TO THE
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF OLDIE ARE LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS
IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN...DENOTED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS
WAKE. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BE THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

17.12Z GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 925 TO 850 MB RH FIELDS SUPPORT
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING ITS MARCH...HOLDING UP JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. INCREASED OVERNIGHT SKY COVER
QUITE A BIT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES DO FALL
OFF WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMPLICATED BY FOG AND/OR
DEVELOPING STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES FROM
KLSE/KRST/KDEH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
09Z...LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 700 MB...THOUGH BEGIN TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 09-12Z. ENVISION INITIALLY PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FOG
CONCENTRATED IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS/TRIBS BUT ALSO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. AS WINDS AT BLUFF TOP INCREASE...FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND BECOME BROKEN STRATUS. 17.12Z HI-RES MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS THINKING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME FRIDAY
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BUT IS
LIKELY TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE CAP
STRENGTHENS...THIS WILL SHUT OFF AND/OR MOVE PRECIP TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED OFF FRIDAY AS PLUME
OF WARM 700 MB AIR /+12C/ OFF THE HIGH PLAINS NOSES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE GFS/NAM ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CAP...SHUTTING OFF
ANY PRECIP CHANCE DURING THE DAY UP TO KMSP/KEAU AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MN. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

FINALLY BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME COOLING AND FALLING HEIGHTS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE NOTED BY 0-6 KM BULK
VALUES 30+ KTS WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3.5 TO 4.0
KM...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHER HAIL THREAT BUT AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCTION. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORTH
OF I-90.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 17.12Z GUIDANCE BUT COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH 12-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...WEAK CAP REMAINS IN THE PLACE WHICH COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL
PLEASANT...SEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG VCNTY KLSE.
NORMALLY WOULD GO WITH THE THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CONUNDRUM WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MVFR CLOUD
COVER IN ITS WAKE. MEDIUM LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME INCOMING MVFR CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KLSE AND
KRST AS WELL PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. DUE TO THIS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CLOUD COVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AT KLSE AFTER 09Z. THINKING THAT
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER //WHICH WOULD ACT TO
MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING/RIVER VALLEY FOG// AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT BLUFFTOP LEVEL WILL KEEP THE VALLEY MIXED A
BIT. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CHANNEL...BUT NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT KLSE. KEPT KRST VFR TIL 09Z...THEN BROUGHT IN 4SM
BR SCT025 IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CLOUDS WILL
THEN BECOME PREVALENT 14-18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 171805
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG VCNTY KLSE.
NORMALLY WOULD GO WITH THE THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CONUNDRUM WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MVFR CLOUD
COVER IN ITS WAKE. MEDIUM LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME INCOMING MVFR CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KLSE AND
KRST AS WELL PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. DUE TO THIS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CLOUD COVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AT KLSE AFTER 09Z. THINKING THAT
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER //WHICH WOULD ACT TO
MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING/RIVER VALLEY FOG// AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT BLUFFTOP LEVEL WILL KEEP THE VALLEY MIXED A
BIT. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CHANNEL...BUT NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT KLSE. KEPT KRST VFR TIL 09Z...THEN BROUGHT IN 4SM
BR SCT025 IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CLOUDS WILL
THEN BECOME PREVALENT 14-18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 171805
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG VCNTY KLSE.
NORMALLY WOULD GO WITH THE THINKING THAT FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK GIVEN LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A CONUNDRUM WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED MVFR CLOUD
COVER IN ITS WAKE. MEDIUM LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME INCOMING MVFR CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KLSE AND
KRST AS WELL PER LATEST MODEL OUTPUT. DUE TO THIS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CLOUD COVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AT KLSE AFTER 09Z. THINKING THAT
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER //WHICH WOULD ACT TO
MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING/RIVER VALLEY FOG// AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT BLUFFTOP LEVEL WILL KEEP THE VALLEY MIXED A
BIT. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CHANNEL...BUT NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT KLSE. KEPT KRST VFR TIL 09Z...THEN BROUGHT IN 4SM
BR SCT025 IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CLOUDS WILL
THEN BECOME PREVALENT 14-18Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 171211
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALSO BRING AN MVFR OR LOWER VFR CLOUD DECK TOWARD THE TAF
SITES BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. HAVE INTRODUCED THESE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE IDEA THAT FUTURE FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE
DETAILS. IF THE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WOULD BE MORE UNLIKELY AT KLSE...OR SHORTER LIVED AT LEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 171211
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALSO BRING AN MVFR OR LOWER VFR CLOUD DECK TOWARD THE TAF
SITES BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMATION. HAVE INTRODUCED THESE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE IDEA THAT FUTURE FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE
DETAILS. IF THE MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WOULD BE MORE UNLIKELY AT KLSE...OR SHORTER LIVED AT LEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 170818
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL FORM IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE 17.02Z RAP AND 17.00Z NAM
BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER ILLINOIS MOVES OFF INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED THROUGH THE EVENING THAT THE FLAG
HERE AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND AT TIMES AND THE VWP
WINDS FOR THE KARX RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING 10 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET
ALL EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THAT. BOTH MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING RIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND
WITH A 4 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 17.04Z THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME FOG TO FORM NEAR THE AIRPORT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH BCFG BUT
NOT SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT GIVEN THE WINDS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 170818
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EVIDENT ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST 07Z METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND CLOUD FORMATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE LATEST 17.00Z GFS/NAM PUSH WEAK IMPULSE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT WITH DEPARTING IMPULSE WILL EVAPORATE DUE DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z.

FOCUS TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH WEAK SURFACE FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS INDICATE 850MB
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PRODUCE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE TO INHIBIT ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH UNDER INVERSION AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY AND NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
CLOUDS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO INHIBIT
FORMATION OF FOG. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF LINGER THE 900-850MB MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THURSDAY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IF CLOUDS
FORM AND LINGER OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 17.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 17.00Z ECMWF
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS/GEM. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM FOCUS LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
IMPULSE. HENCE...HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THIS AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
AND ALLOW FOR LESSER TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 17.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THE 17.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE DECENT QG
FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROG HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A  FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL FORM IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE 17.02Z RAP AND 17.00Z NAM
BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER ILLINOIS MOVES OFF INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED THROUGH THE EVENING THAT THE FLAG
HERE AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND AT TIMES AND THE VWP
WINDS FOR THE KARX RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING 10 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET
ALL EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THAT. BOTH MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING RIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND
WITH A 4 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 17.04Z THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME FOG TO FORM NEAR THE AIRPORT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH BCFG BUT
NOT SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT GIVEN THE WINDS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 170444
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING AGAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE TROUGHING
DOMINATES EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...
FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN WI. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS UP TO 10C. HOWEVER...MORE
SUNSHINE AND A DRIER AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES PER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AGAIN LOOKS QUIET...RESULTING FROM PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH...

1. POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE SURFACE HIGH IN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN WI IS PROGGED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS
AND CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE 3 PROBLEMS FOR VALLEY FOG. THE FIRST IS THAT THE
AIR IS MUCH DRIER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ALL
RAIN FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN ABSORBED. SECOND...THE GFS...NAM AND
RAP HAVE ALL TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WIND FIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH POTENTIAL OF UP TO 20 KT SUGGESTED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS COULD REALLY HAMPER FOG AND EVEN STRATUS TRYING TO STICK
AROUND IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIRD...A NEW DISCOVERY TODAY IS
THAT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MATCH
UP VERY WELL WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 300K SURFACE...WHICH
COULD ALSO HAMPER FOG AND STRATUS FROM STICKING AROUND...EVEN IN THE
TRIBS. THUS...HAVE BACKED DOWN THE COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

2. TEMPS AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. RELATED TO THE VALLEY FOG
DISCUSSION ABOVE... READINGS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOK TO PLUMMET
AGAIN. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE MID 30S. THEY SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION...THOUGH. ALONG/WEST OF THE RIVER...INCREASING WIND AND
INCOMING CLOUDS RESULT IN WARMER READINGS.

3. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
SHOWN FOR MANY DAYS TO COME INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR
WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD PULL SOME
WARMER AIR IN AHEAD OF IT TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARM THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
AS A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME STRATUS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND...BOTH OF WHICH COULD IMPACT VALLEY FOG FORMATION/PERSISTENCE.
MUCH OF THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT STILL APPEARS TO GET DEFLECTED
TO THE EAST...THUS HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE ONLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING 8-10C
BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. THIS REGIME ALSO COMES WITH MORE
MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND 0.7 INCHES
AT 00Z FRI TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 18Z FRI. THESE TWO PARAMETERS
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BRINGS UP A CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS FROM THE 16.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTION FIRING WEST OF I-35
IN MN AND IA BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI BY 00Z SAT AS CAPPING BUILDS IN. THUS...SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST FOR FRI...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST NO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. GREATER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOK TO COME AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY EAST AND THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT FOR CONVERGENCE. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO HELP.
HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME IF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE REGION
OR NOT. IF IT DOES...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT WOULD INCREASE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL TO WHEN AND WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
16.12Z ECMWF POINTS TO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE 16.12Z GFS WOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SOMETHING ALSO TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS WINDS ON FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN. WITH 40 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 60KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...STRONGEST IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM...PROGGED BETWEEN 3000-5000
FT ABOVE THE GROUND...MIXING SHOULD EASILY CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30 KT.
THESE IN LATER FORECASTS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IF MORE SUN OCCURS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS REAMPLIFY TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON
TODAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TRENDS
SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF SUCH WAVE WILL END UP NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST STAYS DRY WITH THE COOLER AIR
STAYING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. STILL...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL FORM IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE 17.02Z RAP AND 17.00Z NAM
BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER ILLINOIS MOVES OFF INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED THROUGH THE EVENING THAT THE FLAG
HERE AT THE OFFICE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND AT TIMES AND THE VWP
WINDS FOR THE KARX RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING 10 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET
ALL EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THAT. BOTH MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING RIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND
WITH A 4 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 17.04Z THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME FOG TO FORM NEAR THE AIRPORT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH BCFG BUT
NOT SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT GIVEN THE WINDS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04




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