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000
FXUS63 KARX 030518
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1118 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

DRY AIR...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING...IS BEING
WORKED ON BY WIDESPREAD LIFT NOW APPROACHING AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE. SATURATION WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR FOR A TIME AFTER DAYBREAK
BUT AS QUICK AS SNOW MOVES IN...WILL EXIT AFTER A FEW HOURS DUE TO
SPEED OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET.

AS SNOW WINDS DOWN...NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL DROP IN WITH STRONG
FORECAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW IS ONLY MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
KRST AS WINDS PEAK IN INTENSITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AS VISIBILITIES INCREASE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LINGER WITH GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 030518
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1118 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

DRY AIR...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING...IS BEING
WORKED ON BY WIDESPREAD LIFT NOW APPROACHING AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE. SATURATION WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BECOME IFR FOR A TIME AFTER DAYBREAK
BUT AS QUICK AS SNOW MOVES IN...WILL EXIT AFTER A FEW HOURS DUE TO
SPEED OF WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET.

AS SNOW WINDS DOWN...NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL DROP IN WITH STRONG
FORECAST LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING SNOW IS ONLY MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
KRST AS WINDS PEAK IN INTENSITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AS VISIBILITIES INCREASE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LINGER WITH GENERAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 022320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
520 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL ERODE LATER TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD LIFT OCCURS
AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST SHORT WAVE. NOT ONLY WILL CEILINGS LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
PEAKS.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST SNOW COULD BE A FAIRLY NARROW WARM FRONTAL
BAND THAT ADVECTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHERS PAINT A
MORE BROAD PICTURE. NONE THE LESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING WORST SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING IN 10Z TO 16Z TIME
FRAME.

THEN AS SNOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BEHIND WAVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MINNESOTA. SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND BUT INTRODUCED AT LEAST IDEA OF
BLOWING SNOW AT KRST WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AREA WIDE CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS SNOW MOVES OFF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 022320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
520 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL ERODE LATER TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD LIFT OCCURS
AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST SHORT WAVE. NOT ONLY WILL CEILINGS LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
PEAKS.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST SNOW COULD BE A FAIRLY NARROW WARM FRONTAL
BAND THAT ADVECTS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHERS PAINT A
MORE BROAD PICTURE. NONE THE LESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING WORST SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING IN 10Z TO 16Z TIME
FRAME.

THEN AS SNOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BEHIND WAVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MINNESOTA. SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BLOW AROUND BUT INTRODUCED AT LEAST IDEA OF
BLOWING SNOW AT KRST WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AREA WIDE CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN AS SNOW MOVES OFF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 022122
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS BUT ITS CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS THRU
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW SPREADS
INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE SNOW SPREADS INTO THE TAF SITES
IN THE 09-11Z TIME-FRAME. IFR VSBYS...IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
THRU TUE MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONGEST OF THE LIFT/
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 09-
15Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 12-16Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING FOR THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT BOTH
KRST/KLSE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

SNOW ENDS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
NORTHWEST WINDS G30-35KTS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 022122
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER INDIANA. THE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING RADAR ECHOES FROM AUSTIN
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 500 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS BELOW
650 MB IS VERY DRY...THUS...NO PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. 02.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE THE 800 TO 500 MB
RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND BECOME
ORIENTATED ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

AS THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 280 K ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND ACROSS IOWA
BETWEEN 03.06Z AND 03.09Z. THIS SNOW BAND THEN WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.10Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. MESO
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE SNOW MAY BE ONLY
LIMITED TO A 6 HOUR PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE A BIT MORE
BROAD BRUSHED THAN THAT...SO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF SNOW
A BIT MORE. THE SNOW WILL THEN QUICKLY END ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM...WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 TO 1. THE
HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A DRY
SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF
ANY PRECIPITATION IS LEFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...THE NAM SHOWS THAT
A 2C WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB WILL NOSE INTO FAYETTE AND
CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AHEAD OF A DRY SLOT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF VERY
STEEP 950 TO 900 MB LAPSE RATES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 03.21Z AND
04.03Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL GUST UP
TO 40 MPH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONE INCH OF
BLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...SO THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF
GROUND BLIZZARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE...IF THE ECMWF WIND GUSTS VERIFY. HOWEVER WITH SOME QUESTIONS
ON WHETHER THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY LIMIT THE EXISTING SNOW FROM
BLOWING AND WHETHER A DRY SLOT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL SNOW...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO JUST STAY WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW US MORE TIME TO
EVALUATE THE AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW THAT MAY FALL AND WHETHER THE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -22 TO -26C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15F ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO -10 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
-5 TO -15 ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE -15 TO -25 NORTH OF A CHARLES CITY IOWA TO NEILLSVILLE
WISCONSIN LINE AND FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LOW WIND CHILLS...A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH OF THESE TIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS BUT ITS CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS THRU
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW SPREADS
INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE SNOW SPREADS INTO THE TAF SITES
IN THE 09-11Z TIME-FRAME. IFR VSBYS...IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
THRU TUE MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONGEST OF THE LIFT/
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 09-
15Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 12-16Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING FOR THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT BOTH
KRST/KLSE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

SNOW ENDS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
NORTHWEST WINDS G30-35KTS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 021716
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS BUT ITS CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS THRU
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW SPREADS
INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE SNOW SPREADS INTO THE TAF SITES
IN THE 09-11Z TIME-FRAME. IFR VSBYS...IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
THRU TUE MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONGEST OF THE LIFT/
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 09-
15Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 12-16Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING FOR THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT BOTH
KRST/KLSE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

SNOW ENDS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
NORTHWEST WINDS G30-35KTS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 021716
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS BUT ITS CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS THRU
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW SPREADS
INTO/ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ONCE SNOW SPREADS INTO THE TAF SITES
IN THE 09-11Z TIME-FRAME. IFR VSBYS...IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED
THRU TUE MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONGEST OF THE LIFT/
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 09-
15Z PERIOD AT KRST AND 12-16Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING FOR THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED AT BOTH
KRST/KLSE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

SNOW ENDS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...
NORTHWEST WINDS G30-35KTS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 021147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
547 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE 1 TO 2
SM RANGE IN SNOW MAINLY AFTER 09Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 021147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
547 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE 1 TO 2
SM RANGE IN SNOW MAINLY AFTER 09Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 020945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF EARLIER CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED FROM
DIURNAL NATURE BUT WAVE STILL HAS SOME HIGHER BASED STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY HIT KLSE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ALREADY SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM ROCKIES FROM
SOUTHWEST LOW...AND WITH SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS FLOW NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A RESPONSE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REDEVELOP. WILL STAY VFR THROUGH 03.06Z BUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADS TO BROAD LIFT ACROSS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TAF SET...AND COULD IMPACT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 020945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WHEN SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
02.00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A SLOWER SATURATION TO THE COLUMN
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAK LIFT BATTLING THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY...EXPECT THAT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT AT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT OFFERS UP A NUMBER OF ISSUES...ONE BEING
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM WILL PAN OUT. THE FIRST
THREAT COMES FROM THE SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ACCUMULATES THE MOST BETWEEN 6AM-12PM TUESDAY BEFORE LETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AS THE 02.00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM LAYER. THE OUTLIER NAM CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK AND WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW
FOR THE AREA AND MORE OF A MIX/FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO DUE TO A
LOSS OF ICE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...SO HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THAT BLEND AS WELL. THE GFS
DOES BRING THE WARM LAYER A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TUESDAY MORNING. QPF TRENDS ARE GOING DOWN AS
WELL DUE TO THE LOW RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW FROM THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND GOING
FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STILL...HAVE A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME 4" SNOWS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID
RATIOS.

ONCE THE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING A
BIT IN HOW BAD IT WILL BE DUE TO LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO
THIS...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE MPX WILL BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING.
STILL...A FRESH 2-3 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND FOR AT
LEAST A SMALL PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME ISSUES.
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS BAD
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO CONTENT TO THE
NEW SNOW.

WENT BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT
IN THE END IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ONE. ENOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WANTED TO DO HEADLINES AS
WELL...SO WE HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 3AM TUESDAY MORNING TO
COVER THE DEVELOPING SNOW FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND ENDED IT AT
9 PM TUESDAY EVENING TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW. A PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT BECOME AN ISSUE THERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THEN A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL GO BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF EARLIER CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED FROM
DIURNAL NATURE BUT WAVE STILL HAS SOME HIGHER BASED STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY HIT KLSE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ALREADY SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM ROCKIES FROM
SOUTHWEST LOW...AND WITH SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS FLOW NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A RESPONSE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REDEVELOP. WILL STAY VFR THROUGH 03.06Z BUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADS TO BROAD LIFT ACROSS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TAF SET...AND COULD IMPACT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 020525
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF EARLIER CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED FROM
DIURNAL NATURE BUT WAVE STILL HAS SOME HIGHER BASED STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY HIT KLSE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ALREADY SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM ROCKIES FROM
SOUTHWEST LOW...AND WITH SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS FLOW NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A RESPONSE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REDEVELOP. WILL STAY VFR THROUGH 03.06Z BUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADS TO BROAD LIFT ACROSS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TAF SET...AND COULD IMPACT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 020525
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BULK OF EARLIER CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED FROM
DIURNAL NATURE BUT WAVE STILL HAS SOME HIGHER BASED STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY HIT KLSE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ALREADY SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM ROCKIES FROM
SOUTHWEST LOW...AND WITH SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS FLOW NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A RESPONSE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REDEVELOP. WILL STAY VFR THROUGH 03.06Z BUT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
LEADS TO BROAD LIFT ACROSS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT
RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TAF SET...AND COULD IMPACT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 012343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SWEEP IN ANOTHER WAVE OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT BULK IS VFR. LATE SHOT
AT VISIBILE SATELLITE SUGGEST CLOUDS ARE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS
WELL SO SOME COULD DISSIPATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CEILINGS
TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ON
THROUGH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 012343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SWEEP IN ANOTHER WAVE OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT BULK IS VFR. LATE SHOT
AT VISIBILE SATELLITE SUGGEST CLOUDS ARE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS
WELL SO SOME COULD DISSIPATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CEILINGS
TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ON
THROUGH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 012343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SWEEP IN ANOTHER WAVE OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT BULK IS VFR. LATE SHOT
AT VISIBILE SATELLITE SUGGEST CLOUDS ARE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS
WELL SO SOME COULD DISSIPATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CEILINGS
TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ON
THROUGH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 012343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SWEEP IN ANOTHER WAVE OF CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT BULK IS VFR. LATE SHOT
AT VISIBILE SATELLITE SUGGEST CLOUDS ARE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS
WELL SO SOME COULD DISSIPATE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF CEILINGS
TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE ON
THROUGH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE ON MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 012124
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 012124
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 012124
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 012124
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CHALLENGES SURROUND WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IMPACTING
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND STRENGTH/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL LEAN
ON AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 01.12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...WITH BOTH
MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SLOWING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PHASES WITH A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED LIGHT SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN AND WESTERN WI MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...MUCH STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES
ACROSS IA AND LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 03.12Z.
ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG STRONG 850 TO 700
HPA FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN WAVE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. BY 03.18Z...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD FRONTAL SNOW FROM THE
NORTH COLLIDE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND ALL OF
WI. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

SURFACE LOW AT 03.18Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
SNOW EXITING THE IMMEDIATE REGION NO LATER THAN 04.00Z. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE...LOOK FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS (4 TO 5
INCHES) ACROSS CENTRAL WI. OVERALL...A SOLID WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EVENT. FOR NOW KEPT ALL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW...BUT IF
NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA GIVEN
INCREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 40 KT WINDS AT 0.5 KM DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM WILMAR MN TO
MARSHALLTOWN IA BY 04.00Z. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS DO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HWY 63
CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...SNOW RATIOS FROM SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE 8-12:1. IN ADDITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS DELAY STRONGEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. WITH WETTER SNOW AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
QUESTION DUE TO TIMING...CAN WINDS INCREASE TO A LEVEL THAT
GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? THAT IS THE QUESTION. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. STILL EXPECT PERIODIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
MPH WHICH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR UNDERNEATH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 011735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 011735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 011735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 011735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY BETWEEN 01.18Z AND 01.21Z. AT KLSE...THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND 01.19Z. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES EAST...VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 011133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KRST THROUGH
13-14Z THIS MORNING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND USHER IN
DRIER AIR. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AT KLSE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 011133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KRST THROUGH
13-14Z THIS MORNING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND USHER IN
DRIER AIR. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATE MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AT KLSE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 010954
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 010954
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 010954
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 010954
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 010511
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 010511
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 010511
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 010511
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 282340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING...BETWEEN
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN FLOW. CEILINGS IN VFR
RANGE FOR MOST PART BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NORTHERN WAVE...MAKING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
MAINLY OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO. THEN AS
SHORT WAVE PASSES SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR AND EVEN
CLEARING AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 282340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING...BETWEEN
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN FLOW. CEILINGS IN VFR
RANGE FOR MOST PART BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NORTHERN WAVE...MAKING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
MAINLY OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO. THEN AS
SHORT WAVE PASSES SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR AND EVEN
CLEARING AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 282340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING...BETWEEN
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND SHORT WAVE IN NORTHERN FLOW. CEILINGS IN VFR
RANGE FOR MOST PART BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ADVECT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NORTHERN WAVE...MAKING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
MAINLY OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO. THEN AS
SHORT WAVE PASSES SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR AND EVEN
CLEARING AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 282151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 282151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 282151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 282151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS MISSOURI
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WERE FOUND IN
THE FORESTED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO A LOWER
ALBEDO. FORESTED AREAS HAVE AN ALBEDO OF BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.18.
COMPARED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS WHICH HAVE AN ALBEDO BETWEEN
0.2 AND 0.4 /DIRTY SNOW/.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH OUR AREA
BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET...WE ARE
SEEING SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL KEEP THIS AREA
DRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL SATURATE THE AIR MASS
BELOW 800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...SO KEPT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE LIFT
LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL...SO JUST WENT WITH FLURRIES.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BELOW THE MOISTURE...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO
BE THE FASTEST WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RESULTS IN QUICKER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...THUS...THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION IS MUCH SLOWER AT SATURATING. WHILE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WE WILL SATURATE...ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING ON WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH AREA. WITH A LONGER DURATION...IT MAKES SENSE
WHY THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF. WITH THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW LESS THAN 100 MB
OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 750 AND 500 MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...STILL THINKING THAT THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE MAINLY IN 10-15 TO 1 RANGE.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR STRUCTURALLY...HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND WHERE
THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL INITIALLY FORM AND HOW FAST IT WILL
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY FALL. DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION...THINKING THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT FOCUSED
ENOUGH ON WHERE THIS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS IS
BRINGING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH OF INTESTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS MIX
OCCURRING MORE TOWARD INTERSTATE 80. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME TO BE OVER SPECIFIC IN THE SNOW TOTAL
FORECAST. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TO BROAD BRUSH THE 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. IN SOME AREAS...THESE TOTALS MAY HAVE
TO BE ENHANCED AND IN OTHERS LOWERED...BUT WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL
IN QUESTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWING UP IN THE
SPC SREF PLUMES.

FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BELOW
850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 281745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 281745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID- LATE SUNDAY MORNING AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 12 KTS OR
LESS...TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 281158
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PLAN
ON A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PLAN ON CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 281158
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PLAN
ON A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PLAN ON CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 281158
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PLAN
ON A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PLAN ON CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 281158
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PLAN
ON A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. PLAN ON CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 280905
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 280905
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS ON THE DECREASING CHANCES FOR
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION IS STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. SOME LOWER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
COMING IN AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN THE
28.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO BE WITH KEEPING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW
SOUTH AS WELL. 28.00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME SATURATION THAT OCCURS WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND JUST PUT IN FLURRIES STARTING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ALOFT TO 250MB. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DROP
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH COMING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOME OF THE
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF/WARM LAYER/ARRIVAL OF SNOW. THE 28.00Z GFS IS
THE HIGHEST WITH QPF THROUGH THE EVENT WITH IT DROPPING ABOUT 0.60
TO 0.90 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF IS
MORE TAME AT ABOUT 0.40 INCHES. THE GFS IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH
SATURATING OUT THE COLUMN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW MONDAY
EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE GEM/ECMWF WHICH HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS ALSO IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM LAYER MAKING
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX/RAIN WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOWS BETWEEN THESE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
PATH. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS WILL BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT...AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH RECENT SNOW EVENTS...THE PATH CAN
CHANGE QUITE A BIT LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WHAT
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ086-087-
     094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





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