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000
FXUS63 KARX 280816
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.

TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 280816
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS TODAY.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF WISCONSIN. THIS CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP
850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD AND THE 850MB 28.00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS.

TODAY THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS AND 28.03Z RAP DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THE
850MB MOISTURE...WHERE THE NAM IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE GFS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE. THE LATEST 28.03Z RAP APPEARS TO HANDLE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETTER AND HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER CLOSER TO
THIS FOR TODAY. THIS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
...AS MODELS SHOW 850MB MOISTURE ERODES/ADVECTS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 28.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES TO TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATE CAPE OF 300 TO
AROUND 350 J/KG BY 21Z TUESDAY AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND ATMOSPHERE COLUMN UNCAPPED...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 28.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
28.00Z GEM/GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
THAN THE ECMWF. HENCE...PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH ISSUES WITH WEAK
IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 280446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 280446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WHILE THE CLOUD FORECAST IS CHALLENGING FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...IT
APPEARS THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR FOR THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA.
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 4C OR LESS. SATELLITE SHOWING MN MUCH MORE
CLOUDY THAN WI AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO THAT
TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT KRST MORE CLOUDY THAN
KLSE THIS CYCLE. DETAILS ON THE CLOUDS ARE TOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 272348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SUN DESCENDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WHILE SCT CLOUDS WERE CARRIED AT THE TAF
SITES...COULD SEE SOME BKN PATCHES OF VFR OR HIGHER MVFR CLOUD...
BUT PREDICTING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF SUCH WOULD BE DIFFICULT.
THIS IS A MORE OPTIMISTIC-SIDED FORECAST...BUT IF MVFR CLOUD
/BKN020-030/ PATCHES BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE VIA SATELLITE...WILL
UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 272348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SUN DESCENDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WHILE SCT CLOUDS WERE CARRIED AT THE TAF
SITES...COULD SEE SOME BKN PATCHES OF VFR OR HIGHER MVFR CLOUD...
BUT PREDICTING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF SUCH WOULD BE DIFFICULT.
THIS IS A MORE OPTIMISTIC-SIDED FORECAST...BUT IF MVFR CLOUD
/BKN020-030/ PATCHES BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE VIA SATELLITE...WILL
UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 271857
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI AT MID-DAY WITH EXTENSIVE
WRAP AROUND CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST AND BEST LIFT EXITS ALONG WITH IT...ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNWARD
MOTIONS TO HELP FLATTEN AND EVENTUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE THE CLOUD
COVER. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TREND...BUT AM
LEARY OF THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF SCT CLOUD COVER...BUT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS AGAIN TOMORROW...WENT BACK TO BKN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WELVAERT





000
FXUS63 KARX 271857
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
MID LEVEL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. RADAR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
QUITE AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS AND SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA
IN THE CYCLONIC/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.

LOOK FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION THIS EVENING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING CLOUD TREND
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOR DRY AND COOLER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A BUILD-UP IN DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD RESULT. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...OR SOME 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND COMBINATION OF
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FOR
PERIODIC/MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI AT MID-DAY WITH EXTENSIVE
WRAP AROUND CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST AND BEST LIFT EXITS ALONG WITH IT...ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNWARD
MOTIONS TO HELP FLATTEN AND EVENTUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE THE CLOUD
COVER. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TREND...BUT AM
LEARY OF THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF SCT CLOUD COVER...BUT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
BEGINS AGAIN TOMORROW...WENT BACK TO BKN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WELVAERT




000
FXUS63 KARX 271747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI AT MID-DAY WITH
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST AND BEST LIFT EXITS ALONG WITH IT...ANTICIPATE
SOME DOWNWARD MOTIONS TO HELP FLATTEN AND EVENTUALLY
THIN/DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TREND...BUT AM LEARY OF THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF SCT
CLOUD COVER...BUT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS AGAIN
TOMORROW...WENT BACK TO BKN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 271747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI AT MID-DAY WITH
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST AND BEST LIFT EXITS ALONG WITH IT...ANTICIPATE
SOME DOWNWARD MOTIONS TO HELP FLATTEN AND EVENTUALLY
THIN/DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TREND...BUT AM LEARY OF THIS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF SCT
CLOUD COVER...BUT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS AGAIN
TOMORROW...WENT BACK TO BKN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 271140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN 27.14Z AND 27.17Z CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEANWHILE THE CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BECOME
VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 27.16Z AND 28.00Z WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF...BUT THE NORTHWEST WIND MAY
BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TO CONTERACT THESE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 271140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN 27.14Z AND 27.17Z CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEANWHILE THE CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BECOME
VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 27.16Z AND 28.00Z WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF...BUT THE NORTHWEST WIND MAY
BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TO CONTERACT THESE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270821
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT THE
LA CROSSE AREA. SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY...DELAYED ISSUING THE KLSE TAF UNTIL 27.0540Z SO THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN IT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270821
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PV ADVECTION WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PER LATEST
RAP.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST 27.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DEEP
FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
27.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE CLOSED LOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW BY 00Z MONDAY. TRENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EXIT THE AREA BY 03Z MONDAY. THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MONDAY REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE FORECAST AREA REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 27.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AS THE 27.00Z GEFS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF A HALF TO ONE DEGREE CELSIUS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT THE
LA CROSSE AREA. SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY...DELAYED ISSUING THE KLSE TAF UNTIL 27.0540Z SO THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN IT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270542
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH AN INCREASE
SEEN OVER THE PAST HOUR SOUTH OF HAYWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST STORM
IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND IS TAKING AIM ON
TAYLOR COUNTY NOW AROUND 11 PM. HAIL OF 2.75 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
FROM THIS STORM AT 847PM.

STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN THROUGH
KMSP TO HAYWARD. THIS IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AXIS WHERE
2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE CAP CONTINUES. WHILE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND TROUGHING IS ALONG THE STORM AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
INITIAL QG FORCING FROM THE DEEPER LOW NW OF KINL IS PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT ENVIRONMENT FROM I-94 AND NORTH. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORM TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-94.

FURTHER SOUTH /KMSP AND SOUTH/ MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD POP UP
WITH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW- LEVELS SOUTH TO
ST JAMES. HRRR IS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIGNALS OF SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NEAR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE AND CAPE AXIS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
STORMS MAINTAINING IN SUCH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-94.

OVERNIGHT...THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE/FRONT SLIDES EAST AND EXITS
CENTRAL AND SWRN WI AROUND 10Z. WITH DEEPER SHEAR IN SUPERCELL
RANGE...AND INSTABILITY REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT THE
LA CROSSE AREA. SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY...DELAYED ISSUING THE KLSE TAF UNTIL 27.0540Z SO THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN IT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270542
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH AN INCREASE
SEEN OVER THE PAST HOUR SOUTH OF HAYWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST STORM
IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND IS TAKING AIM ON
TAYLOR COUNTY NOW AROUND 11 PM. HAIL OF 2.75 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
FROM THIS STORM AT 847PM.

STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN THROUGH
KMSP TO HAYWARD. THIS IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AXIS WHERE
2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE CAP CONTINUES. WHILE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND TROUGHING IS ALONG THE STORM AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
INITIAL QG FORCING FROM THE DEEPER LOW NW OF KINL IS PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT ENVIRONMENT FROM I-94 AND NORTH. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORM TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-94.

FURTHER SOUTH /KMSP AND SOUTH/ MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD POP UP
WITH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW- LEVELS SOUTH TO
ST JAMES. HRRR IS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIGNALS OF SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NEAR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE AND CAPE AXIS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
STORMS MAINTAINING IN SUCH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-94.

OVERNIGHT...THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE/FRONT SLIDES EAST AND EXITS
CENTRAL AND SWRN WI AROUND 10Z. WITH DEEPER SHEAR IN SUPERCELL
RANGE...AND INSTABILITY REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT THE
LA CROSSE AREA. SINCE THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY...DELAYED ISSUING THE KLSE TAF UNTIL 27.0540Z SO THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN IT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE.

AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BETWEEN 28.00Z AND 28.03Z. IN
ADDITION THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270205
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH AN INCREASE
SEEN OVER THE PAST HOUR SOUTH OF HAYWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST STORM
IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND IS TAKING AIM ON
TAYLOR COUNTY NOW AROUND 11 PM. HAIL OF 2.75 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
FROM THIS STORM AT 847PM.

STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN THROUGH
KMSP TO HAYWARD. THIS IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AXIS WHERE
2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE CAP CONTINUES. WHILE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND TROUGHING IS ALONG THE STORM AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
INITIAL QG FORCING FROM THE DEEPER LOW NW OF KINL IS PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT ENVIRONMENT FROM I-94 AND NORTH. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORM TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-94.

FURTHER SOUTH /KMSP AND SOUTH/ MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD POP UP
WITH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW- LEVELS SOUTH TO
ST JAMES. HRRR IS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIGNALS OF SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NEAR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE AND CAPE AXIS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
STORMS MAINTAINING IN SUCH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-94.

OVERNIGHT...THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE/FRONT SLIDES EAST AND EXITS
CENTRAL AND SWRN WI AROUND 10Z. WITH DEEPER SHEAR IN SUPERCELL
RANGE...AND INSTABILITY REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AND COOL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE MVFR CIGS SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD FURTHER EAST /WI/ AND THUS SHRA WAS INCLUDED IN
THE KLSE TAF. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...UP TO 30KTS. THERE ARE SOME SMALL TSRA CHANCES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 270205
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH AN INCREASE
SEEN OVER THE PAST HOUR SOUTH OF HAYWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST STORM
IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND IS TAKING AIM ON
TAYLOR COUNTY NOW AROUND 11 PM. HAIL OF 2.75 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
FROM THIS STORM AT 847PM.

STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN THROUGH
KMSP TO HAYWARD. THIS IS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AXIS WHERE
2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE CAP CONTINUES. WHILE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND TROUGHING IS ALONG THE STORM AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
INITIAL QG FORCING FROM THE DEEPER LOW NW OF KINL IS PROVIDING A
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT ENVIRONMENT FROM I-94 AND NORTH. THIS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORM TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-94.

FURTHER SOUTH /KMSP AND SOUTH/ MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD POP UP
WITH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW- LEVELS SOUTH TO
ST JAMES. HRRR IS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIGNALS OF SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NEAR
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE AND CAPE AXIS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
STORMS MAINTAINING IN SUCH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF I-94.

OVERNIGHT...THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE/FRONT SLIDES EAST AND EXITS
CENTRAL AND SWRN WI AROUND 10Z. WITH DEEPER SHEAR IN SUPERCELL
RANGE...AND INSTABILITY REMAINING UP OVERNIGHT IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AND COOL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE MVFR CIGS SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD FURTHER EAST /WI/ AND THUS SHRA WAS INCLUDED IN
THE KLSE TAF. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...UP TO 30KTS. THERE ARE SOME SMALL TSRA CHANCES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 270002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AND COOL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE MVFR CIGS SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD FURTHER EAST /WI/ AND THUS SHRA WAS INCLUDED IN
THE KLSE TAF. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY...UP TO 30KTS. THERE ARE SOME SMALL TSRA CHANCES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 261901
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW SHOWERS
IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS...BUT
MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT WILL MISS KLSE.
STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT KEEPING
INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE
SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE
MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WELVAERT




000
FXUS63 KARX 261901
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS PRODUCING A
SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BACK TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS SD. DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/LOWER 70S...RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO IN PLACE.

RAP SHOWS BAND OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING/SAGGING SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA INTO IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING...TAKING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN
MN/WI TONIGHT. STRONG 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/QG-RESPONSE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-94 THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...NAM INDICATES ELEVATED
MUCAPE IN THE 850-300MB LAYER OF 1500-1800J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR
IN THE 25-45KT RANGE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LARGER HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OFF IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE AS NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW AT 10 TO 20
MPH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...PLAN ON SHOWERS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A FEW EVENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
9 PM. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CLOUDS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/CRANBERRY BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURE ARE MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW SHOWERS
IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS...BUT
MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT WILL MISS KLSE.
STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT KEEPING
INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE
SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE
MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WELVAERT





000
FXUS63 KARX 261729
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW
SHOWERS IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE
AIRFIELDS...BUT MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT
WILL MISS KLSE. STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW
ENVIRONMENT KEEPING INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD
WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND
INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG
FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER
SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 261729
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NEB. COOL OUTFLOW
SHOWERS IN MID LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STRINGING EAST ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE KRST/KLSE
AIRFIELDS...BUT MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT KRST FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST SO CONFIDENT IT
WILL MISS KLSE. STILL...LOW CLOUD LINGERING IN THE WEAK FLOW
ENVIRONMENT KEEPING INVERSION IN PLACE. DO FEEL THE LOWER CLOUD
WILL MIX OUT ONCE THE SHOWER AREA PASSES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A NICE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NEAR WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN TONIGHT AND
INTO WI BY SUNDAY. DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...STRONG
FORCING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO FORCE STORMS
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT WILL PERHAPS BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE UPPER
SYSTEM EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MANIFEST AS CLOUD AND GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 261249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 261249
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
749 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 26.06Z DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THERE WILL BE STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 TODAY. VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A 30 TO 45
KNOT CONVERGENCE INTO THE 700 MB FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
OVERALL THE HRRR AND A COUPLE /MEMBERS 2 AND 3/ OF THE 26.06Z HOP
WRF SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL BE EVEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261159
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 261159
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL BECOME MVFR BY 26.1330Z...AND VFR
BY 26.17Z. THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR THROUGH
26.1330Z...THEN BECOME MVFR BY 26.15Z...AND THEN VFR. MEANWHILE
AT KLSE THE MVFR CEILING WILL BECOME VFR BY 26.16Z. ONE THING THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IS THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOWING STRONG 900 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO KRST AFTER
26.15Z AND KLSE AFTER 26.16Z. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH 26.22Z.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 260820
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY
PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME
DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST...
CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS
SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP...
WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO
GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS
CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 260820
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA PER MOSAIC RADAR.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING WEAK IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE LATEST 26.05Z HRRR IS INDICATING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIRMASS BELOW 700MB OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK IMPULSE...THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT 500-300MB PV
ADVECTION AND DEEP QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THE 26.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING THE VERY WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
VERY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY
PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME
DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST...
CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS
SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP...
WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO
GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS
CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 260454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY
PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME
DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST...
CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS
SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP...
WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO
GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS
CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 260454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY
PROBLEMATIC. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE BEING SENT NORTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES. EVEN SOME
DRIZZLE HAS FORMED...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT RST.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR AS EXPECTED IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN WITH TOB NOW VFR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ANTICIPATING THAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO RST...
CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND THUS GO VFR. HOWEVER...THIS
SAME CLEARING MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY BR TO DEVELOP...
WHICH IS NOTED IN A TEMPO GROUP. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. AT LSE...IT APPEARS THE CLEARING MAY TAKE LONGER TO
GET THERE...THUS HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS PLAN OF CONDITIONS
CLIMBING TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ITS POSSIBLE LSE DROPS TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AFTER 13Z...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 10000 FT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATUS WITH VFR CEILINGS AT RST AND MVFR CEILINGS AT LSE BRIEFLY
BROKE OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW COMING BACK IN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. MUCH OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY THIS STRATUS AS
LIGHTER WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN WESTERN MN
PREVENT MUCH MIXING. ANTICIPATING THAT A FEW HOURS OF COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW RST TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR IN CEILINGS.

THERE ARE SIGNS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT DRYING WILL COME ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AT 3000 FT OR SO ABOVE THE GROUND. TWO
SCENARIOS EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS DRYING. 1. CEILINGS GET
PUSHED LOWER...WHICH IS WHAT THE 00Z TAFS SHOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR CEILINGS TO GET PUSHED EVEN LOWER. 2. CLEARING OF
THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND IN
PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME BR FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE IDEA OF
CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE ONLY DROPPED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS CLEAR...IFR TO EVEN
VLIFR VISIBILITIES WOULD OCCUR.

GOOD DRYING LOOKS TO PLACE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...THUS STILL
SHOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CLIMBING TO VFR QUICKLY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 252322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATUS WITH VFR CEILINGS AT RST AND MVFR CEILINGS AT LSE BRIEFLY
BROKE OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW COMING BACK IN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. MUCH OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY THIS STRATUS AS
LIGHTER WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN WESTERN MN
PREVENT MUCH MIXING. ANTICIPATING THAT A FEW HOURS OF COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW RST TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR IN CEILINGS.

THERE ARE SIGNS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT DRYING WILL COME ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AT 3000 FT OR SO ABOVE THE GROUND. TWO
SCENARIOS EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS DRYING. 1. CEILINGS GET
PUSHED LOWER...WHICH IS WHAT THE 00Z TAFS SHOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR CEILINGS TO GET PUSHED EVEN LOWER. 2. CLEARING OF
THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND IN
PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME BR FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE IDEA OF
CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE ONLY DROPPED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS CLEAR...IFR TO EVEN
VLIFR VISIBILITIES WOULD OCCUR.

GOOD DRYING LOOKS TO PLACE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...THUS STILL
SHOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CLIMBING TO VFR QUICKLY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY AT KRST AND LIKELY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AT
KLSE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
POSITIVES GOING FOR AN IFR PERIOD OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES
LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN
5 KTS AFTER 06Z...THROUGH A DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 1000 FEET...BUT THE TREND IN
RECENT NAM/GFS/RAP RUNS SHOWS THIS COULD END UP HIGHER. IN THE
END...IF SKIES DO INDEED CLEAR OUT PARTIALLY...AND AHEAD OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BY MORNING...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY AND
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A LONGER PERIOD. FOR NOW...BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM AND INCLUDED A SCATTERED IFR CEILING

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ZT





000
FXUS63 KARX 251924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY AT KRST AND LIKELY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AT
KLSE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
POSITIVES GOING FOR AN IFR PERIOD OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES
LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN
5 KTS AFTER 06Z...THROUGH A DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 1000 FEET...BUT THE TREND IN
RECENT NAM/GFS/RAP RUNS SHOWS THIS COULD END UP HIGHER. IN THE
END...IF SKIES DO INDEED CLEAR OUT PARTIALLY...AND AHEAD OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BY MORNING...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY AND
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A LONGER PERIOD. FOR NOW...BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM AND INCLUDED A SCATTERED IFR CEILING

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 251747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB
LAYER PER THE LATEST 25.03 RAP AND 25.00Z GFS/NAM.

THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS AND THE 25.03Z RAP INDICATE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE POINTED DIRECTLY INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE CORFIDI VECTORS/UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS TO MOVE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 25.00Z NAM AND 25.03Z RAP SHOW 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND THE BETTER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES LATE
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW FOR
SKIES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NEXT CONCERN IS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW MUCH STRONGER
AND DEEPER QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BEST
FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HENCE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY
ABOVE 800MB BY 18Z SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. MAIN
CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS FORECAST AREA...AS THE 25.00Z GEFS
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MINUS 0.5 TO MINUS 1.5
DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY AT KRST AND LIKELY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AT
KLSE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
POSITIVES GOING FOR AN IFR PERIOD OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES
LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN
5 KTS AFTER 06Z...THROUGH A DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 1000 FEET...BUT THE TREND IN
RECENT NAM/GFS/RAP RUNS SHOWS THIS COULD END UP HIGHER. IN THE
END...IF SKIES DO INDEED CLEAR OUT PARTIALLY...AND AHEAD OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BY MORNING...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY AND
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A LONGER PERIOD. FOR NOW...BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM AND INCLUDED A SCATTERED IFR CEILING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 251747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB
LAYER PER THE LATEST 25.03 RAP AND 25.00Z GFS/NAM.

THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS AND THE 25.03Z RAP INDICATE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE POINTED DIRECTLY INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE CORFIDI VECTORS/UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS TO MOVE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 25.00Z NAM AND 25.03Z RAP SHOW 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND THE BETTER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES LATE
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW FOR
SKIES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NEXT CONCERN IS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW MUCH STRONGER
AND DEEPER QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BEST
FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HENCE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY
ABOVE 800MB BY 18Z SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. MAIN
CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS FORECAST AREA...AS THE 25.00Z GEFS
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MINUS 0.5 TO MINUS 1.5
DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY AT KRST AND LIKELY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AT
KLSE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
POSITIVES GOING FOR AN IFR PERIOD OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES
LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN
5 KTS AFTER 06Z...THROUGH A DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 1000 FEET...BUT THE TREND IN
RECENT NAM/GFS/RAP RUNS SHOWS THIS COULD END UP HIGHER. IN THE
END...IF SKIES DO INDEED CLEAR OUT PARTIALLY...AND AHEAD OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BY MORNING...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY AND
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A LONGER PERIOD. FOR NOW...BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM AND INCLUDED A SCATTERED IFR CEILING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....ZT





000
FXUS63 KARX 251151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB
LAYER PER THE LATEST 25.03 RAP AND 25.00Z GFS/NAM.

THE 25.00Z NAM/GFS AND THE 25.03Z RAP INDICATE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE POINTED DIRECTLY INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SHOW THE CORFIDI VECTORS/UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS TO MOVE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH MOVEMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 25.00Z NAM AND 25.03Z RAP SHOW 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND THE BETTER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES LATE
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW FOR
SKIES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NEXT CONCERN IS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 25.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW MUCH STRONGER
AND DEEPER QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BEST
FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HENCE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY
ABOVE 800MB BY 18Z SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST 25.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM. MAIN
CONCERN IS TIMING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL ACROSS FORECAST AREA...AS THE 25.00Z GEFS
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MINUS 0.5 TO MINUS 1.5
DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING
THIS PRECIPITATION WELL EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT WHEN
MAKING THE TAFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AT
KRST BY 25.14Z AND AT KLSE BY 25.15Z.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LAMP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT KRST AFTER 26.06Z...AND LESS THAN A MILE
AT KLSE AFTER 26.08Z. I AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THERE HAS
BEEN VERY LITTLE FOG OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MIXING BELOW 2K FEET.
AS A RESULT...JUST INTRODUCED SOME MVRF FOG AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




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