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000
FXUS63 KARX 022333
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES BUT THE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. THE SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH
SITES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR A LITTLE
LESS BUT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD START OUT AROUND
25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERY
LATE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO FORM BUT MAY CAUSE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH SOME
FOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ADD AT LEAST A SCATTERED
STRATUS LAYER FOR KLSE. ONCE THE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WILL MAYBE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 022333
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES BUT THE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. THE SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH
SITES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR A LITTLE
LESS BUT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD START OUT AROUND
25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERY
LATE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO FORM BUT MAY CAUSE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH SOME
FOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ADD AT LEAST A SCATTERED
STRATUS LAYER FOR KLSE. ONCE THE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WILL MAYBE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 022333
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES BUT THE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. THE SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH
SITES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR A LITTLE
LESS BUT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD START OUT AROUND
25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERY
LATE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO FORM BUT MAY CAUSE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH SOME
FOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ADD AT LEAST A SCATTERED
STRATUS LAYER FOR KLSE. ONCE THE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WILL MAYBE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 022333
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES BUT THE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. THE SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH
SITES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR A LITTLE
LESS BUT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD START OUT AROUND
25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERY
LATE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO FORM BUT MAY CAUSE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH SOME
FOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ADD AT LEAST A SCATTERED
STRATUS LAYER FOR KLSE. ONCE THE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WILL MAYBE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 022047
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 022047
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 021635
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT ONE THIS
MORNING AND A STRONG 750 TO 400 MB CAP COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WERE REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH
INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 021635
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT ONE THIS
MORNING AND A STRONG 750 TO 400 MB CAP COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WERE REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH
INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 021635
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT ONE THIS
MORNING AND A STRONG 750 TO 400 MB CAP COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WERE REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH
INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 021635
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT ONE THIS
MORNING AND A STRONG 750 TO 400 MB CAP COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WERE REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO
RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES WHICH
INCREASED THE HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03/02Z.

THE SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG AT
EITHER TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5
STATUE MILES LATE BETWEEN 03.09Z AND 03.13Z. WHILE DENSE FOG DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE TAF SITES...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 021130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

02.1130Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHEAST MN AND INTO
EASTERN IA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT THIS
LINE OF STORMS TO IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AT KRST AS STRONGEST STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02.12Z AND
02.14Z...BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE WITH STORM TIMING
FROM 02.13Z TO 02.15Z. ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THINK WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 021130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

02.1130Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHEAST MN AND INTO
EASTERN IA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT THIS
LINE OF STORMS TO IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AT KRST AS STRONGEST STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02.12Z AND
02.14Z...BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE WITH STORM TIMING
FROM 02.13Z TO 02.15Z. ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THINK WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 021130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

02.1130Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHEAST MN AND INTO
EASTERN IA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT THIS
LINE OF STORMS TO IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AT KRST AS STRONGEST STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02.12Z AND
02.14Z...BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE WITH STORM TIMING
FROM 02.13Z TO 02.15Z. ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THINK WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 020800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE AIR BEING ABLE TO SATURATE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A -TSRA COMPLEX OVER SWRN MN SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD EXPAND SOUTH AND AFFECT
THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
STABLE ENOUGH TO ONLY CAUSE ISOLATED HIGHER BASED ACCAS.
THUS...CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF NOT INCLUDING TSRA AT THE
AIRFIELDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

SOME MVFR FOG MAY BE AROUND LATER TONIGHT AS THE VERY NEAR-SURFACE
AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 020800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE AIR BEING ABLE TO SATURATE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A -TSRA COMPLEX OVER SWRN MN SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD EXPAND SOUTH AND AFFECT
THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
STABLE ENOUGH TO ONLY CAUSE ISOLATED HIGHER BASED ACCAS.
THUS...CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF NOT INCLUDING TSRA AT THE
AIRFIELDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

SOME MVFR FOG MAY BE AROUND LATER TONIGHT AS THE VERY NEAR-SURFACE
AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 020354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1054 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE AIR BEING ABLE TO SATURATE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A -TSRA COMPLEX OVER SWRN MN SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD EXPAND SOUTH AND AFFECT
THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
STABLE ENOUGH TO ONLY CAUSE ISOLATED HIGHER BASED ACCAS.
THUS...CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF NOT INCLUDING TSRA AT THE
AIRFIELDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

SOME MVFR FOG MAY BE AROUND LATER TONIGHT AS THE VERY NEAR-SURFACE
AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 020354
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1054 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE AIR BEING ABLE TO SATURATE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A -TSRA COMPLEX OVER SWRN MN SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD EXPAND SOUTH AND AFFECT
THE TAFS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR APPEARS TO BE
STABLE ENOUGH TO ONLY CAUSE ISOLATED HIGHER BASED ACCAS.
THUS...CONTINUED FORECAST TREND OF NOT INCLUDING TSRA AT THE
AIRFIELDS FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

SOME MVFR FOG MAY BE AROUND LATER TONIGHT AS THE VERY NEAR-SURFACE
AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 012324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. WHILE THIS USUALLY ENHANCES THE IFR FOG
THREAT...VFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
THICKEN TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. THUS...MVFR FOG HAS BEEN
CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SOME LIFT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN THE MORNING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE TSRA GROWTH FROM THIS LIFT. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WEAK LIFT
WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WI...AND SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY BE
FOUND. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST AT KLSE DOES NOT INCLUDE THAT
WEATHER AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 012324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. WHILE THIS USUALLY ENHANCES THE IFR FOG
THREAT...VFR CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
THICKEN TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. THUS...MVFR FOG HAS BEEN
CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SOME LIFT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN THE MORNING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE TSRA GROWTH FROM THIS LIFT. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WEAK LIFT
WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WI...AND SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY BE
FOUND. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST AT KLSE DOES NOT INCLUDE THAT
WEATHER AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 011916
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 011916
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 011916
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SULTRY START TO SEPTEMBER WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MESO-SCALE MODELING
PUSHES RAIN THREAT IN A BIT EARLIER.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH SHORT WAVE BUT HINTS OF IT IN
01.12Z GFS/ECMWF AS WELL LEADS TO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
WHICH COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEEMS LIKE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO GET RAIN...AND WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WAVE...BUMPED UP
OVERALL RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SHEAR IS MARGINAL
SO OUTSIDE OF A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SO
WISCONSIN SIDE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING DAY WITH LOWERING RAIN THREATS TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HAVE
INCREASED OVERALL RAIN THREAT.

GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THREAT...HAVE LOWER HIGHS A LITTLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TO THE SOUTH
WHERE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR 3RD DAY IN A
ROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WAVE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT BULK OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS FEATURE EXITS.

UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES FOR REST OF WEEK INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA...OVERALL RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOWERING. HARD TO DETAIL IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD EJECT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING ON
KEEPING THESE FEATURES MAINLY WEST WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR STORM
COMPLEXES GOING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MODEL BLENDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THESE SHIFTS AND WOULD AGREE THE OVERALL RAIN
THREAT IS JUST TOO LOW TO KEEP INCLUDING AT THIS POINT.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

BY SUNDAY THOUGH...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FASTER FLOW AND LIKELY
INCREASING FORCING COULD LEAD TO A MORE ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX AND
SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 011748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 011748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 011748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 011748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM 500
THROUGH AROUND 2 FT. THINKING SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WITH SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE KRST TAF IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 011135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LIFR/IFR FOG AT KRST WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 01.14Z...ALTHOUGH
MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
DO EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 01.16Z. MVFR MIST AT KLSE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 01.14Z WITH A QUICKER RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. FOR BOTH SITES...EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KTS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT BOTH KLSE/KRST. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A RETURN TO MVFR
MIST AFTER 02.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 011135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

LIFR/IFR FOG AT KRST WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 01.14Z...ALTHOUGH
MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
DO EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 01.16Z. MVFR MIST AT KLSE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 01.14Z WITH A QUICKER RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. FOR BOTH SITES...EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KTS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT BOTH KLSE/KRST. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A RETURN TO MVFR
MIST AFTER 02.05Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 010815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 010815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 010815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 010815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWING A LARGE/DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.  FAIRLY MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. ALSO SOME AREAS
OF FOG IN HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HEADING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. INTERIM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REST OF TODAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
800-750MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE HEAT AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI. COMBINE
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL BE SEEN.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. NAM
SHOWING A DECENT SURGE OF 950-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS A RESULT...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NAM DEPICTING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 4-5KJ/KG BY
AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN ITS HIGHER DEWPOINT BIAS.
BULK SHEAR ONLY 15-20KT. SO...LOOKING FOR MAINLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...VERY
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S/FEW
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWER/STORMS THURSDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AS
LATEST GFS/NAM SHOWING MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STAYING WELL INTO THE 80S/NEAR 90.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60/NEAR 70 RANGE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LABOR DAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WITH APPROACHING NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 010449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST
HALF OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
SO WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST
ALL NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT
EXPECT A FULL RECURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 010449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST
HALF OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
SO WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST
ALL NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT
EXPECT A FULL RECURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 010449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST
HALF OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
SO WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST
ALL NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT
EXPECT A FULL RECURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL EVOLVE.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG HAS SETUP OVER THE
REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KEAU TO KALO AND WEST THAT IS
FORMING A SCT050 DECK AROUND THE AREA AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS THE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM GENERALLY IN THE MOIST AXIS. THUS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO IFR AT KRST MORE IN THE MOIST PLUME...AND
MVFR AT KLSE.

WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 312349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST
HALF OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
SO WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST
ALL NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT
EXPECT A FULL RECURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE 06-15Z PERIOD AS
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE AIRFIELDS WITH CLEAR
SKIES. AGAIN...WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE OF A LOW-STRATUS
LAYER WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVING SOME CHALLENGES COMPARING IT TO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AS TODAY WAS A BETTER MIXING DAY
AND TEMPERATURES WARMED A BIT. HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ROSE AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST
THAT A STEP TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS WARRANTED. A
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EITHER IFR FOG OR STRATUS
WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KLSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS. AND THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODELS GUIDANCE IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MVFR CIG WOULD
FORM...WHICH WOULD THEN LIMIT THE FOG FROM BECOMING LIFR /POSSIBLY
MORE OF A 2SM BR/.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT





000
FXUS63 KARX 312349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST
HALF OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
SO WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST
ALL NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT
EXPECT A FULL RECURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE 06-15Z PERIOD AS
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE AIRFIELDS WITH CLEAR
SKIES. AGAIN...WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE OF A LOW-STRATUS
LAYER WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVING SOME CHALLENGES COMPARING IT TO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AS TODAY WAS A BETTER MIXING DAY
AND TEMPERATURES WARMED A BIT. HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES AND ROSE AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST
THAT A STEP TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS WARRANTED. A
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EITHER IFR FOG OR STRATUS
WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KLSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS. AND THE TREND IN THE LATEST MODELS GUIDANCE IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MVFR CIG WOULD
FORM...WHICH WOULD THEN LIMIT THE FOG FROM BECOMING LIFR /POSSIBLY
MORE OF A 2SM BR/.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 311924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGENCE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF
OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM SO
WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST ALL
NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT EXPECT A
FULL REOCCURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGENCE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF
OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM SO
WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST ALL
NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT EXPECT A
FULL REOCCURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA HAS BEEN MOISTENING LOWER
LAYER UP SO BESIDES 70 PLUS SURFACE DEW POINTS MAKING ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...ALSO BATTLING AREAS OF STRATUS FROM OVERNIGHT INVERSION
THAT IS SLOW TO BREAK. EVEN DIURNAL CUMULUS IS OBSCURED BY
ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE MAKING FOR OVERALL POOR DEFINITION TO SKY COVER TO
START THE WEEK.

PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA IS DRAGGING FRONT OR
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO TUESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO GENERATE
SMALL AREAS OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT PLAN ON KEEPING DRY
FORECAST GOING.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL FORM. SEEMS TO
BE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN SHORT TERM MODEL OF INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGENCE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRATUS COULD BE TRANSIENT THOUGH...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST HALF
OF AREA BEFORE EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM SO
WHILE SKY COVER BUMPED UP...DID NOT COMPLETELY CARRY OVERCAST ALL
NIGHT. GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG SOMEWHAT SO DO NOT EXPECT A
FULL REOCCURRENCE OF THIS MORNING.

A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS WELL FOR WARM AND MUGGY START OF
SCHOOL FOR MANY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW WILL HIGHLIGHT MEDIUM/LONG RANGE AS MEAN
TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. MAIN PROBLEM IS WHEN TO START RAIN THREAT
AS WEAK IMPULSES CROSS RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MIDWEST.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT FIRST SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO CORNBELT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE RAIN RISKS
BY WEDNESDAY ALREADY. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. EVEN SOME HINTS THAT LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS POINT.

THIS ONLY SETS UP FOR SEVERAL MORE WAVES POSSIBLE AS UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS INTO WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. COULD SEE RAIN
THREATS ON AND OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS AS RIDGE BUILDS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOO EARLY
FOR A LOT OF DETAIL YET BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SEEM HIGHER THIS
WEEKEND THAN THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WAS ALLOWING FOR MORE
MIXING TODAY...WITH THE MVFR/IFR STRATO-CU DECK ERODING/LIFTING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 17Z TODAY. MORE DIURNAL WARMING/DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RAISE SCT CUMULUS HGTS INTO THE 2500 FT
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRYING BELOW
900MB IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT AROUND 850MB OR ABOUT 4000 FT AGL. CARRIED THIS AS
A SCT035/SCT040 DECK AT KRST/KLSE RESPECTIVELY FOR TONIGHT-TUE
MORNING. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING...CONTINUED A MENTION OF SOME MVFR BR DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY 08Z-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS PRODUCING EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN AND NORTHERN WI.
THERE WAS ALSO POCKETS OF VSBY BLO 1SM IN BR. EXPECTING
STRATUS/FOG TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE STRATUS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXTENT IS NOT
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE IF CEILINGS DID FORM AT KRST/KLSE
IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN MVFR CATEGORY. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG WITH VSBY IN THE 5-6SM RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS PRODUCING EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN AND NORTHERN WI.
THERE WAS ALSO POCKETS OF VSBY BLO 1SM IN BR. EXPECTING
STRATUS/FOG TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE STRATUS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXTENT IS NOT
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE IF CEILINGS DID FORM AT KRST/KLSE
IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN MVFR CATEGORY. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG WITH VSBY IN THE 5-6SM RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 311135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS PRODUCING EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN AND NORTHERN WI.
THERE WAS ALSO POCKETS OF VSBY BLO 1SM IN BR. EXPECTING
STRATUS/FOG TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE STRATUS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXTENT IS NOT
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE IF CEILINGS DID FORM AT KRST/KLSE
IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN MVFR CATEGORY. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG WITH VSBY IN THE 5-6SM RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 311135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WAS PRODUCING EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIFR TO
MVFR STRATUS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN AND NORTHERN WI.
THERE WAS ALSO POCKETS OF VSBY BLO 1SM IN BR. EXPECTING
STRATUS/FOG TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE STRATUS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXTENT IS NOT
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE IF CEILINGS DID FORM AT KRST/KLSE
IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN MVFR CATEGORY. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG WITH VSBY IN THE 5-6SM RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS





000
FXUS63 KARX 310840
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 310840
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 310840
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW STRATUS HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WI. 31.07Z RAP SHOWS THIS STRATUS FILLING-IN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT CAN STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

AS QUICKLY AS THE STRATUS DEVELOPS...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DISSIPATE IT JUST AS QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS 15 TO 20 KTS MIX
WITHIN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT A RETURN TO AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY IMPACT OF CLOUDS
WILL BE TO SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...SO DROPPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT NOT LIKELY TO BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE AND WITH 10 TO 20
KTS ATOP NOCTURNAL INVERSION...FOG THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A BROAD 500 HPA RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WOBBLING BETWEEN 24 AND
26 CELSIUS...DAILY HIGHS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH SOME 90 PLUS DEGREE READINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THINK MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY.
MULTIPLE WEAK/ILL-RESOLVED SHORT-WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. DAILY INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...BUT LARGE SCALE RIDGE SQUASHES ANY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR NOW...DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE
DETAILS ON TIMING OR COVERAGE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SO BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE BY MOVING A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES/
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS MUCH QUICKER IN DOING SO COMPARED TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF...SO DEFINITE TIMING ISSUES EMERGE. FOR NOW...A
BLENDED APPROACH IS PRUDENT RESULTING IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ONCE TROUGH PASSES...BUT WHETHER THIS
OCCURS BY SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS YET TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 310435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA ARE BREAKING UP/CLEARING OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE 30.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE VALLEY SITES. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE NAM SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING BUT LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW
CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE HOW EXPANSIVE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE SO FOR
NOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT ADJUST AS NEEDED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO
START THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 25C MONDAY AND
THEN COULD REACH THE 27C TO 29C RANGE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND LOOK FOR MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE 30.12Z GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE.
A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
INTO THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR KRST FROM THE GFS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN AND WHAT IS THERE IS ABOVE 10000 FEET. WILL CARRY JUST
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE UP
COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY OF THESE WEAK WAVES SO WILL STICK WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AND SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UP
COMING WEEKEND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN WORK INTO THE AREA LIKE
THE GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW...BUT THE 30.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY COULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 310435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA ARE BREAKING UP/CLEARING OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE 30.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE VALLEY SITES. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE NAM SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING BUT LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW
CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE HOW EXPANSIVE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE SO FOR
NOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT ADJUST AS NEEDED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO
START THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 25C MONDAY AND
THEN COULD REACH THE 27C TO 29C RANGE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND LOOK FOR MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE 30.12Z GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE.
A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
INTO THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR KRST FROM THE GFS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN AND WHAT IS THERE IS ABOVE 10000 FEET. WILL CARRY JUST
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE UP
COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY OF THESE WEAK WAVES SO WILL STICK WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AND SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UP
COMING WEEKEND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN WORK INTO THE AREA LIKE
THE GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW...BUT THE 30.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY COULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 310435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA ARE BREAKING UP/CLEARING OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE 30.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE VALLEY SITES. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE NAM SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING BUT LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW
CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE HOW EXPANSIVE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE SO FOR
NOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT ADJUST AS NEEDED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO
START THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 25C MONDAY AND
THEN COULD REACH THE 27C TO 29C RANGE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND LOOK FOR MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE 30.12Z GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE.
A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
INTO THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR KRST FROM THE GFS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN AND WHAT IS THERE IS ABOVE 10000 FEET. WILL CARRY JUST
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE UP
COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY OF THESE WEAK WAVES SO WILL STICK WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AND SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UP
COMING WEEKEND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN WORK INTO THE AREA LIKE
THE GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW...BUT THE 30.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY COULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 310435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA ARE BREAKING UP/CLEARING OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE
CONCERN THEN BECOMES WHETHER ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE 30.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW SATURATION
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR THE VALLEY SITES. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE NAM SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING BUT LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW
CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE HOW EXPANSIVE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE SO FOR
NOW WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT ADJUST AS NEEDED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO
START THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 25C MONDAY AND
THEN COULD REACH THE 27C TO 29C RANGE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND LOOK FOR MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
THE 30.12Z GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE.
A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
INTO THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR KRST FROM THE GFS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE COLUMN AND WHAT IS THERE IS ABOVE 10000 FEET. WILL CARRY JUST
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE UP
COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY OF THESE WEAK WAVES SO WILL STICK WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS AND SHOW SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UP
COMING WEEKEND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN WORK INTO THE AREA LIKE
THE GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW...BUT THE 30.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY COULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT SFC WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY...AND T/TD SPREAD
AROUND 2 F AT LATE EVENING ALL SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY
AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO 10+ KTS OF WIND WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS STIRRING GENERALLY
PRECLUDES DENSE FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEY - OR AT LEAST ITS
ABILITY TO SPREAD. IN ADDITION...IT CAN WORK AGAINST A LOW STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ACROSS THE REGION...MVFR BR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AT KLSE AND
KRST.

AS FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP INCREASE THE LOW SATURATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS LOW STRATUS AND/OR THICK FOG. LATEST
RUNS KEEP THIS STRATUS/FOG THREAT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...AND WILL
HAVE THE FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF CLOSELY FOLLOWING
OBS/TRENDS...WITH UPDATES MADE IF NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK





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