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000
FXUS63 KARX 051117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SCENARIO PLAYING OUT FIRST THING THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
TRIBUTARIES FOGGED IN BUT SO FAR FOG BANK HAS STAYED WEST OF KLSE.
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL HOLD
TOUGH WITH VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

MORE CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OUT WEST
TODAY...AND AS CONVECTION GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TODAY...COULD SEE
MORE OF THAT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. STILL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

COULD SEE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE IN WEST AND SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK AGAINST THIS. BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF IT AGAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 051117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SCENARIO PLAYING OUT FIRST THING THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
TRIBUTARIES FOGGED IN BUT SO FAR FOG BANK HAS STAYED WEST OF KLSE.
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL HOLD
TOUGH WITH VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

MORE CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OUT WEST
TODAY...AND AS CONVECTION GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TODAY...COULD SEE
MORE OF THAT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. STILL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

COULD SEE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE IN WEST AND SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK AGAINST THIS. BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF IT AGAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 051117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SCENARIO PLAYING OUT FIRST THING THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
TRIBUTARIES FOGGED IN BUT SO FAR FOG BANK HAS STAYED WEST OF KLSE.
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL HOLD
TOUGH WITH VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

MORE CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OUT WEST
TODAY...AND AS CONVECTION GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TODAY...COULD SEE
MORE OF THAT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. STILL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

COULD SEE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE IN WEST AND SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK AGAINST THIS. BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF IT AGAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 051117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SCENARIO PLAYING OUT FIRST THING THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
TRIBUTARIES FOGGED IN BUT SO FAR FOG BANK HAS STAYED WEST OF KLSE.
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RULE RESTRICTIONS BUT WILL HOLD
TOUGH WITH VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

MORE CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OUT WEST
TODAY...AND AS CONVECTION GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TODAY...COULD SEE
MORE OF THAT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. STILL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

COULD SEE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE IN WEST AND SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK AGAINST THIS. BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF IT AGAIN IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 050823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 050823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 050823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 050447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 050447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 050447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 042340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS CIRRUS
WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN THAT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS 10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 042340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS CIRRUS
WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN THAT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS 10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 042340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS CIRRUS
WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER
THAN THAT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS 10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 042008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. SOME CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4-5 KFT. THESE CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY  THIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 042008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDING
MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INVERSION DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE NAM/GFS DPROG/DT
INDICATING SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY. HAVE
REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONFINED SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY.

THE 04.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INCREASING
LIFT/925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW/FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
ARE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. SOME CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4-5 KFT. THESE CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY  THIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 041735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. SOME CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4-5 KFT. THESE CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY  THIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 041735
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. SOME CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WITH CLOUD BASES OF 4-5 KFT. THESE CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD GRADUALLY  THIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP





000
FXUS63 KARX 041104
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANNEL OF DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER VFR PERIOD. CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE AREA
TODAY BUT MUCH OF THAT WILL THIN AS IT MOVES IN.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WITH EVEN LIGHTER
WINDS...MORE FAVORABLE VALLEY FOG SETUP TO DEAL WITH. COULD SEE MORE
HIGHER CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WHICH WOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG. JUST
LEFT PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR NOW AT KLSE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 041104
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANNEL OF DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER VFR PERIOD. CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE AREA
TODAY BUT MUCH OF THAT WILL THIN AS IT MOVES IN.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WITH EVEN LIGHTER
WINDS...MORE FAVORABLE VALLEY FOG SETUP TO DEAL WITH. COULD SEE MORE
HIGHER CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WHICH WOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG. JUST
LEFT PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR NOW AT KLSE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 041104
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANNEL OF DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER VFR PERIOD. CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE AREA
TODAY BUT MUCH OF THAT WILL THIN AS IT MOVES IN.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WITH EVEN LIGHTER
WINDS...MORE FAVORABLE VALLEY FOG SETUP TO DEAL WITH. COULD SEE MORE
HIGHER CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WHICH WOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG. JUST
LEFT PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST FOR NOW AT KLSE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 040828
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EITHER GO SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 040828
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EITHER GO SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 040828
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. THE REST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

LOOK FOR QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. ALSO EXPECTING
SOME FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
IN RIVER CHANNELS INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH HOLDING
OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE
80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS
NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVES AGAIN OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...PERHAPS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RIPPLE OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EITHER GO SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 040443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EITHER GO SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 040443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN EITHER GO SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 032311
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY VALLEY FOG
TO FORM TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT
THE SURFACE AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 032311
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY VALLEY FOG
TO FORM TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT
THE SURFACE AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 031924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-
SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING
OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS WILL ALSO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031924
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD. THE
EXPECTED CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHTER WIND FIELD SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY WED MORNING. NEAR SFC WINDS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO BREEZY WITHIN IN A COUPLE HUNDRED
FEET OF THE SFC FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TUE MORNING...BUT WED
MORNING IS ANOTHER STORY. NAM SUGGESTING DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER
UPWARDS OF 4 KFT...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BARRING ANY CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM A
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT...OR A CHANGE IN THE WIND
FIELD...COULD BE A FOGGY WED MORNING FOR MANY WHO LIVE IN/AROUND THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY PRESENTS SOME MORE CHALLENGES WITH A ROBUST AND WET GFS
SOLUTION AGAINST THE DRIER...LESS AMBITIOUS NAM/GEM/ECMWF. ALL
MODELS HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST KEEP THEM SEPARATE...TAKING ONE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO - MORE OR LESS - PHASE THESE TWO TOGETHER
WHILE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH. WED WOULD BE A
WET DAY IF THE GFS PROVES CORRECT. THE OTHERS WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE GFS PRESENTING ITSELF AS AN OUTLIER
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL KEEP WED FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL TO SLIGHTED RIDGED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SUGGESTIVE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. PERHAPS NOT AS COOL OF A WEEK AS IT MAY HAVE LOOKED A DAY
OR TWO AGO.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
WHERE/WHEN IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SOME
CONSENSUS. THU NIGHT/FRI IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
SOME AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WITH THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRINGING A
RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER...BUT ALL SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE A
DECENT SHOT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERALL...POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR
PCPN CHANCES - ASIDE FROM THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A MODEL BLEND FOR CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-
SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH SKC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING
OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS WILL ALSO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 031730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS...
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS WILL ALSO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 031730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT BOTH KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS...
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS WILL ALSO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 031125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS AS REGION SITS IN RIBBON OF
DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO THE NORTHEAST
COULD LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. SOME MINOR TRIBUTARY
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA





000
FXUS63 KARX 031125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS AS REGION SITS IN RIBBON OF
DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO THE NORTHEAST
COULD LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. SOME MINOR TRIBUTARY
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 030748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 030748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 030748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 030748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 030443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 030443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 030443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 030443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 022302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES AND THE
SECONDARY DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS ABOUT TO DO THE SAME. WITH THE
DRIER AIR SPREADING...THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN MONDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO ALLOW THE WINDS
TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 022302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES AND THE
SECONDARY DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS ABOUT TO DO THE SAME. WITH THE
DRIER AIR SPREADING...THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN MONDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO ALLOW THE WINDS
TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 021948
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SPARKING SHRA/TS MOSTLY ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. MESO MODELS
FAVORING BRINGING IT THROUGH DRY FOR KRST...AND COULD MISS KLSE
ALSO. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED POST
THE FRONT...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE EXPECT TO FIRE ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY THAT TIME...LIMITING THE THREAT. WILL KEEP
TAFS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY
AND MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND POST THE FRONT...SETTLING DOWN A BIT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 021948
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MN. MOIST/UNSTABLE BUT
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI...WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE SFC-
850MB LOW/FRONT WERE STRONGER...AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN MN. A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING AND THE WARM 925-850MB AIR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPPING...HAS
ALREADY ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA.

MODEL RUNS OF 02.12Z INITIALIZED WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO PASS TONIGHT THEN FOR HGTS TO SLOWLY
RISE MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT SLOWLY
FILLS/DRIFTS EAST. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS MON/MON
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KOLZ-
LOWER WI RIVER VALLEY LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. DIURNAL WARMING
STILL EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAPPING AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH REALISTIC SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT /VS. MID 70S IN
THE NAM/ SB/MU CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE LATE TODAY...A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY 12Z MON. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE +9C TO +14C RANGE BY 12Z
MON...AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. AFTER LOWS SOME 5F
TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MON MORNING
LOWS LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS REMAINS
AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY TRENDING ZERO TO 5F BELOW NORMAL.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/MON THEN FAVORED COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED/WED
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

02.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUE AS HGTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION. BY TUE NIGHT MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THRU THE PLAINS RIDGING.
THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
RUN-TO-RUN TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BY WED/WED NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TUE THEN
AVERAGE TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE FROM MON/MON NIGHT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUE MORE COMFORTABLE
PERIOD OF WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 11C TO 14C RANGE...FOR TUE
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THOSE OF MON. GFS FAST/AGGRESSIVE ON 850-
700MB MOISTURE RETURN AND A SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING INTO THE FCST
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER ON THIS...LEFT
TUE NIGHT DRY. FAVORING DRIER NAM/ECMWF/CAN-GEM TUE NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...TUE
NIGHT LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR THE APPROACH OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WEST OF THE MS RIVER...
LEFT A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE. NOT A LOT OF LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT BUT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SOME INCREASE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LEFT THE CONSENSUS 20-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCE FOR WED NIGHT AS IS AS IT BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS
FOR NOW. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT OTHERWISE
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE/WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...MAINLY THU/THU
NIGHT.

02.00Z/02.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS THU AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE CENTRAL
NOAM RIDGING. MODEST AGREEMENT FOR TROUGHING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRI WITH SOME REBUILDING OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING...THEN FOR THIS RIDGING TO BUILD EAST FRI NIGHT/SAT. BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-SUN...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LESS THAN
DESIRABLE ALREADY ON THU. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.

WITH A SIGNAL FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO FLATTEN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU...WITH A SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...
CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THU REASONABLE. THIS
EVEN WITH ALL THE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. GIVEN
ALL THE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVES AND ALL THE RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITY...WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE THE LATE-WEEK SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AROUND BEFORE THE DETAILS SETTLE DOWN. 02.12Z ECMWF WOULD
ALREADY MOVE THE BULK OF THE LATE WEEK SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. PRESENT TIMING WOULD BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE NEXT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS MOISTURE
AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SUN. GIVEN THE LESSER
CONFIDENCE BY FRI...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SMALL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR DRY PERIODS FOR FRI THRU SUN. TEMPERATURES FOR
THU-FRI TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL SHRA/
TSRA...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT/SUN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/
RISING HGTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
FOR THU-SUN LOOKS WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
SPARKING SHRA/TS MOSTLY ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. MESO MODELS
FAVORING BRINGING IT THROUGH DRY FOR KRST...AND COULD MISS KLSE
ALSO. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED POST
THE FRONT...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE EXPECT TO FIRE ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY THAT TIME...LIMITING THE THREAT. WILL KEEP
TAFS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY
AND MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND POST THE FRONT...SETTLING DOWN A BIT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 021638
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OH THE FUN OF PREDICTING SUMMER TIME CONVECTION. LACK OF ACTIVITY
ALONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING HAS ALLOWED WARM FRONT TO LIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN EXPECTED. WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FORMING
OVERNIGHT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ELEVATED STORMS FORM NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WITH LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
DAY BREAK WITH MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE AND ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
REGENERATION OF STORMS.

THIS WARM FRONT PLACEMENT DOES HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WEATHER LATER
TODAY AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED LEADING TO HIGHER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES /2500-3500 J/KG/ AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COMBINE THIS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME QUESTION ON WHERE MAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BUT WEAK
PERFORMING MESOSCALE MODELS TEND TO HINT AT STORMS FORMING EAST OF
AREA AND COULD BACK BUILD TO THE WEST INTO HIGHER CAPE REGION. THIS
LEADS TO VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES...BUT
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION VERY PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THREAT AREA QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SO RAIN
THREATS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO MATCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHIFT OF UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO WILL PUSH BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAKE FOR A FEW QUIET DAYS TO START THE WEEK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. DROPPED FAVORED COLD BOGS A FEW CATEGORIES AT
NIGHT AS WELL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
FROM MID WEEK ON. HINTS THAT AMPLIFICATION IN FLOW TO THE WEST COULD
BREAK DOWN AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...SMALL RAIN THREATS REMAIN
LITTERED IN OUTER FORECAST PERIODS. STRONGEST POTENTIAL WAVE APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF STORMS WITH INSTABILITY RESIDING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPARKING SHRA/TS MOSTLY ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. MESO
MODELS FAVORING BRINGING IT THROUGH DRY FOR KRST...AND COULD MISS
KLSE ALSO. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
POST THE FRONT...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE EXPECT TO FIRE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY THAT TIME...LIMITING THE THREAT. WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY AND MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND POST THE FRONT...SETTLING DOWN A BIT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 021638
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

OH THE FUN OF PREDICTING SUMMER TIME CONVECTION. LACK OF ACTIVITY
ALONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING HAS ALLOWED WARM FRONT TO LIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN EXPECTED. WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET FORMING
OVERNIGHT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN ELEVATED STORMS FORM NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WITH LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
DAY BREAK WITH MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE AND ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
REGENERATION OF STORMS.

THIS WARM FRONT PLACEMENT DOES HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WEATHER LATER
TODAY AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED LEADING TO HIGHER MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES /2500-3500 J/KG/ AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COMBINE THIS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME QUESTION ON WHERE MAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BUT WEAK
PERFORMING MESOSCALE MODELS TEND TO HINT AT STORMS FORMING EAST OF
AREA AND COULD BACK BUILD TO THE WEST INTO HIGHER CAPE REGION. THIS
LEADS TO VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES...BUT
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION VERY PROGRESSIVE...MOVING
THREAT AREA QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SO RAIN
THREATS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO MATCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHIFT OF UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO WILL PUSH BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAKE FOR A FEW QUIET DAYS TO START THE WEEK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. DROPPED FAVORED COLD BOGS A FEW CATEGORIES AT
NIGHT AS WELL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
FROM MID WEEK ON. HINTS THAT AMPLIFICATION IN FLOW TO THE WEST COULD
BREAK DOWN AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES. WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW...SMALL RAIN THREATS REMAIN
LITTERED IN OUTER FORECAST PERIODS. STRONGEST POTENTIAL WAVE APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF STORMS WITH INSTABILITY RESIDING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SPARKING SHRA/TS MOSTLY ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANKS. MESO
MODELS FAVORING BRINGING IT THROUGH DRY FOR KRST...AND COULD MISS
KLSE ALSO. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
POST THE FRONT...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS ARE EXPECT TO FIRE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY THAT TIME...LIMITING THE THREAT. WILL
KEEP TAFS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY AND MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND POST THE FRONT...SETTLING DOWN A BIT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...RIECK





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