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000
FXUS63 KARX 211125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WHICH IS IN A BROAD CHANNEL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 21.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
HIGHEST 0-3KM MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AT 20-30KTS...SO ANY STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ARE PULSEY AND COLLAPSE RATHER QUICKLY.

THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 21.06Z RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF ARE ALL IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THIS
FRONT IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND NOON AND THEN CLEAR OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THOUGH THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS AND 21.06Z RAP LIKELY DEVELOP TOO
HIGH OF MUCAPE WITH THEM SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING UP TO
THE LOW 60S WHEN THEY WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE MID 50S. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW THAT THIS INSTABILITY IS IN THE 0C TO -20C PORTION
OF THE SOUNDINGS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THIS CONVECTION DESPITE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINING WEAK AT
20-30KT.

ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THERE IS A SOLID SLUG OF DRIER AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
OF AN INITIAL DROP SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS KICKING IN. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
WITH THIS DRY AIR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME 35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MN/NE IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE MIDDLE TO END PORTION OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE TOWARD THE LATER
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES STILL DO NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BUT DO INCREASE PW VALUES UP
TO AROUND 1-1.50" EARLY ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL...HAVE UPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE 70-85 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND AN INCH.

GUIDANCE STARTS TO DEVIATE QUITE A BIT STARTING FRIDAY WITH THE
21.00Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND KEEPS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION ON INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE A COLDER/DRIER ONE FOR US WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION THAT STILL
COULD BRING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES IN WITH IT. CURRENTLY...WPC IS
FAVORING THE GFS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT TIME WILL TELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE DONE A BLEND WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THERE
FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 126Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BAND OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
ROUGHLY 12-15Z AT KRST AND 16-19Z AT KLSE. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
IN THE SHRA/TSRA AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS IN
THE SHRA/TSRA/BR. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THRU...BRISK/GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE TAF SITES...WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z AT KRST AND 20Z AT KLSE. THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO MN/WI/IA. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY BR AROUND SUNRISE TUE TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SMALL CLIMB IN AREA RIVERS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN AROUND MID WEEK
WHICH COULD DROP A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SECOND CREST
ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 210823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WHICH IS IN A BROAD CHANNEL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 21.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
HIGHEST 0-3KM MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AT 20-30KTS...SO ANY STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ARE PULSEY AND COLLAPSE RATHER QUICKLY.

THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 21.06Z RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF ARE ALL IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THIS
FRONT IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND NOON AND THEN CLEAR OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THOUGH THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS AND 21.06Z RAP LIKELY DEVELOP TOO
HIGH OF MUCAPE WITH THEM SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING UP TO
THE LOW 60S WHEN THEY WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE MID 50S. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW THAT THIS INSTABILITY IS IN THE 0C TO -20C PORTION
OF THE SOUNDINGS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THIS CONVECTION DESPITE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINING WEAK AT
20-30KT.

ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THERE IS A SOLID SLUG OF DRIER AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
OF AN INITIAL DROP SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS KICKING IN. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
WITH THIS DRY AIR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME 35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MN/NE IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE MIDDLE TO END PORTION OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE TOWARD THE LATER
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES STILL DO NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BUT DO INCREASE PW VALUES UP
TO AROUND 1-1.50" EARLY ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL...HAVE UPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE 70-85 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND AN INCH.

GUIDANCE STARTS TO DEVIATE QUITE A BIT STARTING FRIDAY WITH THE
21.00Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND KEEPS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION ON INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE A COLDER/DRIER ONE FOR US WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION THAT STILL
COULD BRING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES IN WITH IT. CURRENTLY...WPC IS
FAVORING THE GFS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT TIME WILL TELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE DONE A BLEND WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THERE
FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SITUATED
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG US-20...ARE INCHING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM NOW THROUGH 14-16Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS. SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
HANGING AT EITHER TAF SITE FOR MORE THAN 1 OR 2 HOURS IS LOW...
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS THE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BR AROUND THE TAF SITES...ENOUGH
TO KNOCK LSE DOWN TO MVFR. MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE THE GENERAL
RULE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PLAN ON CEILINGS TO STAY VFR.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR COMES IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 KT. PLAN ON THE WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH AROUND 01Z
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WIND LOOKS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SMALL CLIMB IN AREA RIVERS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN AROUND MID WEEK
WHICH COULD DROP A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SECOND CREST
ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 210414
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. MANY MODELS STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HAVE THE CONVECTION WHERE IT WAS. MOST THOUGHT IT WOULD BE CLOSER
TO I-90 INSTEAD OF NORTHERN IOWA. BELIEVE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION WAS A RESULT OF COOL AIR OUTFLOW...WHICH CAN
DEFINITELY BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND DUBUQUE.

NOW THERE IS A WARM FRONT RE-INFORCED BY THAT COOL AIR OUTFLOW
SITUATED ALONG US-20. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...NOT STRONG...BUT ONE NONETHELESS. THIS
LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP TO PROPEL THE WARM FRONT NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH ITS COOL AIR OUTFLOW
HOLDING BACK THE FRONT. THUS THE CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN IOWA MAY NOT MOVE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE 925-850MB FLOW IS SOUTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN IT TURNS
WESTERLY. SO IT WOULD APPEAR UNTIL 08-09Z IS THE TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO MOVE NORTH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.1
INCHES WHILE MUCAPE STANDS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BEING LIFTED INTO
THE BOUNDARY. THE MUCAPE SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
BUT PLENTY ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. THE MUCAPE CERTAINLY
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A DEEP UPDRAFT...NOR IS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH ENOUGH TO GET BIG RAINS. STILL...THE
TRAINING CONCERN TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES RAISE SOME SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS OF HYDROLOGY ISSUES. SO FAR RIVERS HAVE NOT RESPONDED TO
RECENT RAIN WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. WELL JUST HAVE TO KEEP A MONITOR
FOR ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SITUATED
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG US-20...ARE INCHING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM NOW THROUGH 14-16Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS. SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
HANGING AT EITHER TAF SITE FOR MORE THAN 1 OR 2 HOURS IS LOW...
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS THE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BR AROUND THE TAF SITES...ENOUGH
TO KNOCK LSE DOWN TO MVFR. MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE THE GENERAL
RULE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PLAN ON CEILINGS TO STAY VFR.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR COMES IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 KT. PLAN ON THE WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH AROUND 01Z
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WIND LOOKS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...04/AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 202344
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. MANY MODELS STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HAVE THE CONVECTION WHERE IT WAS. MOST THOUGHT IT WOULD BE CLOSER
TO I-90 INSTEAD OF NORTHERN IOWA. BELIEVE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION WAS A RESULT OF COOL AIR OUTFLOW...WHICH CAN
DEFINITELY BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND DUBUQUE.

NOW THERE IS A WARM FRONT RE-INFORCED BY THAT COOL AIR OUTFLOW
SITUATED ALONG US-20. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...NOT STRONG...BUT ONE NONETHELESS. THIS
LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP TO PROPEL THE WARM FRONT NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH ITS COOL AIR OUTFLOW
HOLDING BACK THE FRONT. THUS THE CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN IOWA MAY NOT MOVE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE 925-850MB FLOW IS SOUTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN IT TURNS
WESTERLY. SO IT WOULD APPEAR UNTIL 08-09Z IS THE TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO MOVE NORTH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.1
INCHES WHILE MUCAPE STANDS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BEING LIFTED INTO
THE BOUNDARY. THE MUCAPE SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
BUT PLENTY ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. THE MUCAPE CERTAINLY
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A DEEP UPDRAFT...NOR IS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH ENOUGH TO GET BIG RAINS. STILL...THE
TRAINING CONCERN TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES RAISE SOME SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS OF HYDROLOGY ISSUES. SO FAR RIVERS HAVE NOT RESPONDED TO
RECENT RAIN WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. WELL JUST HAVE TO KEEP A MONITOR
FOR ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AVIATION FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF
THINGS...PRIMARILY BECAUSE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN MOST COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST. THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS LAID UP NEAR US-20 IN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE DUE TO THAT CONTINUED REGENERATION OF
SHOWERS TO ITS NORTH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS TONIGHT OF INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO HELP PROPEL THE FRONT NORTHWARD...
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH TAF SITES
WOULD SEE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AM
VERY CONCERNED THIS PRECIPITATION MAY STAY STUCK SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED THE TAF FORECAST MORE OPTIMISTIC.
IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD STAND
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE TAF SITES TO PICK UP PRECIPITATION
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. IN ITS WAKE...SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS UP TO 25 KT.

ONE OTHER THING THAT NEEDS MONITORING IS IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR...FOG IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME...WITH EITHER PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH OR DEBRIS CLOUD FROM PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...04/AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 202006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 201742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 201117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH IN THE TAFS. AVOIDED FILLING TAFS
WITH LONG PERIODS OF TEMPO AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AND EITHER USED
VCSH OR JUST PREVAILED -SHRA...KNOWING THAT -SHRA BY NATURE ARE SCT
AND PASSING FEATURES AT ANY ONE POINT. WITH TSRA COVERAGE GENERALLY
ISOLATED...LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF TSRA TRENDS TOWARD
MORE COVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM...UPDATES OR LATER TAF CYCLES CAN
ADD CB/VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED.

MOST CIGS/VSBYS TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WILL BE VFR...WITH ISOLATED/
WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHRA OR ANY TSRA.
FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING
TO POOL NEAR IT. GUIDANCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/-SHRA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR IN BR/-SHRA
LATER TONIGHT IN EITHER TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD AT KLSE/KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 200846
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 200324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 192332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY SINK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
LIKE THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...THEY ARE ALSO MOVING VERY SLOWLY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO RST AS EARLY AS 01Z...BUT
OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z. THE RAIN COULD TAKE ON A PERIODIC OCCURRENCE ON
SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW JUST KEPT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. ANOTHER
REASON FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN IS DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...WHICH WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO CONTINUE THIS DRY AIR FEED...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY VISIBILITIES COULD DIP TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER RAIN...BUT WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND TIMING PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.

REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z AT
LSE...BUT IT IS VERY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 192047
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOWS THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPES IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE THE YESTERDAY...
THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
IF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS
WILL BE THE CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. DUE TO
THIS KEPT...THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COOL FRONT LIES FROM NEAR DULUTH MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO SIOUX
FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST/KLSE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT ...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE TOWARD
6AM SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE GREATER AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOVERING IN THE MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF RAIN DEVELOPS.
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE TO EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 191743
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1243 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS
TODAY ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN FAIRLY
TIGHT CAUSING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO AND PHASES
WITH ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THIS TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING SOME WARMER IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND +8C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND
WILL GRADUALLY DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THEN STARTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MUCAPE ONLY AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR STAYING WEAK AT 20-30KT...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND GIVES IT A BUMP TO THE EAST MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
LIFT UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD PROVIDE
SOME BETTER LIFT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...TO
PRODUCE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL A LOT OF DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN THE 19.00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING A LOT HIGHER ON THE
QPF COMPARED TO THE NAM/GEM. THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF AS WELL WITH
THE NAM PUSHING THE RAIN OFF TO THE EAST FASTER THAN WHAT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING...SO UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL
QPF LOOKS ABOUT GOOD FOR THIS WHOLE EVENT.

A COLDER AIR MASS DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60F TUE/WED. MAY ACTUALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WHEN WE ARE IN THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE 19.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...FIRST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BELT ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE INVERTED SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE COMING IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TAP TO DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB DROPPING DOWN INTO THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COOL FRONT LIES FROM NEAR DULUTH MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO SIOUX
FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST/KLSE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT ...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE TOWARD
6AM SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE GREATER AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOVERING IN THE MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF RAIN DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
MAIN FLOODING OCCURRING NEAR MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
RAIN FALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ROUGHLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS RAIN
WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...IT WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 191138
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
638 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS
TODAY ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN FAIRLY
TIGHT CAUSING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO AND PHASES
WITH ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THIS TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING SOME WARMER IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND +8C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND
WILL GRADUALLY DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THEN STARTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MUCAPE ONLY AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR STAYING WEAK AT 20-30KT...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND GIVES IT A BUMP TO THE EAST MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
LIFT UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD PROVIDE
SOME BETTER LIFT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...TO
PRODUCE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL A LOT OF DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN THE 19.00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING A LOT HIGHER ON THE
QPF COMPARED TO THE NAM/GEM. THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF AS WELL WITH
THE NAM PUSHING THE RAIN OFF TO THE EAST FASTER THAN WHAT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING...SO UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL
QPF LOOKS ABOUT GOOD FOR THIS WHOLE EVENT.

A COLDER AIR MASS DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60F TUE/WED. MAY ACTUALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WHEN WE ARE IN THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE 19.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...FIRST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BELT ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE INVERTED SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE COMING IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TAP TO DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB DROPPING DOWN INTO THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
TAF SITES. WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING...WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH 15-23KT G24-30KTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATION/RIDGE TOP SITES. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TODAY.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THRU THE NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH FOR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA RELAXES CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE...SCT
-SHRA LOOK TO SPREAD INTO THE KRST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
AROUND KLSE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED THE VCSH MENTION FOR THESE.
MORE NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED AROUND KRST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED
-SHRA FOR 06Z-12Z PERIOD. ANY -SHRA LOOKING TO BE LIGHT AND DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THERE FOR TODAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA NOT
HAVING GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER...RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST
WEEKEND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SOME OF THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIMIT THE FIRE CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
MAIN FLOODING OCCURRING NEAR MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
RAIN FALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ROUGHLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS RAIN
WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...IT WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 190822
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS
TODAY ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN FAIRLY
TIGHT CAUSING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO AND PHASES
WITH ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THIS TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING SOME WARMER IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND +8C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND
WILL GRADUALLY DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THEN STARTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MUCAPE ONLY AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR STAYING WEAK AT 20-30KT...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND GIVES IT A BUMP TO THE EAST MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
LIFT UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD PROVIDE
SOME BETTER LIFT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...TO
PRODUCE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL A LOT OF DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN THE 19.00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING A LOT HIGHER ON THE
QPF COMPARED TO THE NAM/GEM. THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF AS WELL WITH
THE NAM PUSHING THE RAIN OFF TO THE EAST FASTER THAN WHAT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING...SO UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL
QPF LOOKS ABOUT GOOD FOR THIS WHOLE EVENT.

A COLDER AIR MASS DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60F TUE/WED. MAY ACTUALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WHEN WE ARE IN THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE 19.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...FIRST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BELT ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE INVERTED SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE COMING IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TAP TO DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB DROPPING DOWN INTO THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE TAF SITES. INITIALLY THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED
ABOVE THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS FORECAST NEAR 1500 FT. WITH WINDS ONLY 8-15 KT AT THE
SURFACE...HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOOK FOR THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO END AROUND 12-13Z AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX
DOWN THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GUSTS OF 24-28
KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE EVENING AT LSE...BUT MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS DRY AIR
HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH AT RST AT THIS TIME SINCE
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THERE FOR TODAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA NOT
HAVING GREENED UP YET. HOWEVER...RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST
WEEKEND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SOME OF THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LIMIT THE FIRE CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
MAIN FLOODING OCCURRING NEAR MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
RAIN FALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ROUGHLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS RAIN
WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...IT WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 190438
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AT 3 PM...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST TO GREEN BAY. THIS HIGH KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40 IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN /DUE TO THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ AND AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO DES MOINES IOWA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REMAINS VERY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE 650
TO 550 MB RANGE...THUS ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

ON SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM AROUND 6C AT 19.12Z TO 10C
BY 20.00Z. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING UP TO 800 MB EXPECT...THIS
AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE THERE IS STILL UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION TO MIXING WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE...STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS MAY
DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DEW POINTS DO
NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TAYLOR COUNTY TO WARRANT A
15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 100 J/KG THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THEN STALL AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE WINDS ALOFT AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE THERE IS WEAK 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH OVER A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THIS SHOULD JUST SLOW THE FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED CAP
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS CAP LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...THE 1-6 KM
SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE AT ALL. WITH THE WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
STATE SEVERE WEATHER TESTS BEING SCHEDULED THAT DAY...WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE TAF SITES. INITIALLY THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED
ABOVE THE GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 40-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS FORECAST NEAR 1500 FT. WITH WINDS ONLY 8-15 KT AT THE
SURFACE...HAVE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOOK FOR THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO END AROUND 12-13Z AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX
DOWN THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GUSTS OF 24-28
KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE EVENING AT LSE...BUT MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS DRY AIR
HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH AT RST AT THIS TIME SINCE
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. THESE WINDS MAY DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IF THE DEW POINTS DO NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
THE DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
KEEPS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.
HOWEVER IF THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD DROP INTO THE 20S WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
GRASSES TO DRY OUT QUICKLY...THUS...ALLOWING FIRES TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. BURNING IS NOT ADVISED DUE TO THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
A PROLONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FALLING
OVER A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD...THIS RAIN SHOULD JUST KEEP RIVER
LEVELS HIGHER LONGER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 182328
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AT 3 PM...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST TO GREEN BAY. THIS HIGH KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40 IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN /DUE TO THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ AND AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO DES MOINES IOWA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REMAINS VERY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE 650
TO 550 MB RANGE...THUS ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

ON SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM AROUND 6C AT 19.12Z TO 10C
BY 20.00Z. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING UP TO 800 MB EXPECT...THIS
AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE THERE IS STILL UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION TO MIXING WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE...STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS MAY
DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DEW POINTS DO
NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TAYLOR COUNTY TO WARRANT A
15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 100 J/KG THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THEN STALL AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE WINDS ALOFT AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE THERE IS WEAK 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH OVER A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THIS SHOULD JUST SLOW THE FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED CAP
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS CAP LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...THE 1-6 KM
SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE AT ALL. WITH THE WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
STATE SEVERE WEATHER TESTS BEING SCHEDULED THAT DAY...WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE TAF SITES. INITIALLY THIS
INCREASE IS EXPECTED ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER 06Z...WITH 40-50 KT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS FORECAST NEAR 1500 FT. WITH WINDS ONLY
8-15 KT AT THE SURFACE...THIS BRINGS UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS. LOOK FOR THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO END AROUND 12-13Z
AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GUSTS OF 24-28 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED AT
RST.

OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS DRY AIR
HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. THESE WINDS MAY DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IF THE DEW POINTS DO NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
THE DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
KEEPS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.
HOWEVER IF THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD DROP INTO THE 20S WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
GRASSES TO DRY OUT QUICKLY...THUS...ALLOWING FIRES TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. BURNING IS NOT ADVISED DUE TO THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
A PROLONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FALLING
OVER A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD...THIS RAIN SHOULD JUST KEEP RIVER
LEVELS HIGHER LONGER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 182051
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AT 3 PM...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST TO GREEN BAY. THIS HIGH KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 40 IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN /DUE TO THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ AND AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO DES MOINES IOWA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REMAINS VERY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE 650
TO 550 MB RANGE...THUS ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

ON SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS MAITOBA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM AROUND 6C AT 19.12Z TO 10C
BY 20.00Z. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING UP TO 800 MB EXPECT...THIS
AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29
WHERE THERE IS STILL UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION TO MIXING WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE...STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THIS...EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS MAY
DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF THE DEW POINTS DO
NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THIS.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TAYLOR COUNTY TO WARRANT A
15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 100 J/KG THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THEN STALL AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE WINDS ALOFT AND ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE THERE IS WEAK 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES WILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH OVER A LONG
PERIOD OF TIME...THIS SHOULD JUST SLOW THE FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED CAP
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS CAP LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...THE 1-6 KM
SHEAR IS NOT FAVORABLE AT ALL. WITH THE WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
STATE SEVERE WEATHER TESTS BEING SCHEDULED THAT DAY...WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN BY SAT
MORNING. GENERALLY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU SAT...WITH GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND SAT.
LIGHTER GENERALLY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STIRRED AND ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HZ/BR TO A MINIMUM.
WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU SAT
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH AT 15-20KTS G25-30KTS THRU SAT MORNING AND
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. THESE WINDS MAY DRAMATICALLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IF THE DEW POINTS DO NOT COME UP FAST ENOUGH. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
THE DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
KEEPS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.
HOWEVER IF THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD BE REMAINS IN THE 20S WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
GRASSES TO DRY OUT QUICKLY...THUS...ALLOWING FIRES TO SPREAD
QUICKLY. BURNING IS NOT ADVISED DUE TO THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
A PROLONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FALLING
OVER A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD...THIS RAIN SHOULD JUST KEEP RIVER
LEVELS HIGHER LONGER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
FIRE WAETHER...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 181725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

QUIET AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON UP TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
IN RESPONSE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY
HAS DROPPED TO BETWEEN 1/4SM TO 2SM AT TIMES...SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG BECOMES AND WHETHER ANY DENSE FOG
FORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES THE
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMING IN AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ON A FRONT THAT STALLS
OUT ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES SOME SHOTS FOR RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT CURRENTLY IS IN WYOMING
LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING IT OUT FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
INITIALLY THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH LATER ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONT GETS A LITTLE EXTRA SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
FRONT DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY
AS THE DEEP SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT AND 18.00Z NAM/GFS PROFILES
SHOW THAT THE MEAGER INSTABILITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS SKINNY AND
ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.

AFTER A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
IN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS DEEPER TROUGH THAT
TAPS INTO THE GULF. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CAPE AS WELL
WITH THUNDER A BIT MORE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN BY SAT
MORNING. GENERALLY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON THRU SAT...WITH GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND SAT.
LIGHTER GENERALLY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STIRRED AND ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HZ/BR TO A MINIMUM.
WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU SAT
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH AT 15-20KTS G25-30KTS THRU SAT MORNING AND
FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SAY THAT A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AN AREAS WHERE RAIN
TRAINS OVER THE SAME SPOT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH





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