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000
FXUS63 KARX 270944
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SURFACE MAP SHOWS ARCTIC AIRMASS OOZING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALMOST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MN...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HANGING
MAINLY IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

LOOK FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SUNRISE EXPECTED. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL GREET THANKSGIVING MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE/AIRMASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR SNOW
GROWTH...COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. LOOK FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BRIEF EVENING DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LOOK FOR A SLOW RISING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH READINGS BY 6 AM IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER
TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH LINGERING SNOW NORTH OF I-94 MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD ICE
AVAILABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. THINKING AROUND ANOTHER INCH LOOKS LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 FOR A TOTAL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES. SNOW
MAY LEAD TO SOME TRICKY TRAVEL FOR THOSE OUT ON THE ROADS FOR BLACK
FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHER WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. PLAN ON LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/STRATUS CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PLAN ON WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
AROUND SATURDAY MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STRUGGLING WITH
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OR NOT. FOR
NOW...KEPT FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING
ACROSS MINNESOTA FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. TIMING THE CLEARING THROUGH OFF THE SATELLITE PUTS IT INTO
KRST AROUND 07Z AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z FOR KLSE. UNTIL THE
CLEARING ARRIVES...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE EVENING BUT A RAPID EXPANSION AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 270944
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SURFACE MAP SHOWS ARCTIC AIRMASS OOZING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALMOST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MN...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HANGING
MAINLY IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

LOOK FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SUNRISE EXPECTED. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL GREET THANKSGIVING MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE/AIRMASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR SNOW
GROWTH...COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. LOOK FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BRIEF EVENING DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LOOK FOR A SLOW RISING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH READINGS BY 6 AM IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER
TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH LINGERING SNOW NORTH OF I-94 MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD ICE
AVAILABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. THINKING AROUND ANOTHER INCH LOOKS LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 FOR A TOTAL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES. SNOW
MAY LEAD TO SOME TRICKY TRAVEL FOR THOSE OUT ON THE ROADS FOR BLACK
FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHER WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. PLAN ON LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/STRATUS CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PLAN ON WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
AROUND SATURDAY MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STRUGGLING WITH
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OR NOT. FOR
NOW...KEPT FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING
ACROSS MINNESOTA FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. TIMING THE CLEARING THROUGH OFF THE SATELLITE PUTS IT INTO
KRST AROUND 07Z AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z FOR KLSE. UNTIL THE
CLEARING ARRIVES...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE EVENING BUT A RAPID EXPANSION AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 270522
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA COULD STILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN
BY SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. BOTH OF THESE FORCING SIGNALS MOVE PAST THE AREA AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 26.18Z NAM SUGGESTING THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO MOVING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING
ACROSS MINNESOTA FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. TIMING THE CLEARING THROUGH OFF THE SATELLITE PUTS IT INTO
KRST AROUND 07Z AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z FOR KLSE. UNTIL THE
CLEARING ARRIVES...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE EVENING BUT A RAPID EXPANSION AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270522
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA COULD STILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN
BY SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. BOTH OF THESE FORCING SIGNALS MOVE PAST THE AREA AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 26.18Z NAM SUGGESTING THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO MOVING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING
ACROSS MINNESOTA FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN. TIMING THE CLEARING THROUGH OFF THE SATELLITE PUTS IT INTO
KRST AROUND 07Z AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z FOR KLSE. UNTIL THE
CLEARING ARRIVES...THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE EVENING BUT A RAPID EXPANSION AND LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270004
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA COULD STILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN
BY SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. BOTH OF THESE FORCING SIGNALS MOVE PAST THE AREA AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 26.18Z NAM SUGGESTING THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO MOVING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST REMAINING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND IN THE
1000-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. UNTIL IT IS PAST THE AREA THOUGH...EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KLSE UNTIL ABOUT 01Z OR SO AND THEN A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS
COMPLETELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE IN THE CEILINGS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MVFR PREDOMINATING. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A CLEARING TREND MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. THE 26.21Z RAP INDICATES THIS CLEARING MOVES INTO
BOTH TAF SITES BY 12Z WHILE THE 26.18Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS IN PLACE INTO THE
MORNING AT KRST AND AFTERNOON AT KLSE. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 270004
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ALREADY
MOVED OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE THUS ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA COULD STILL
RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE SNOW BAND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN
BY SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MINNESOTA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. BOTH OF THESE FORCING SIGNALS MOVE PAST THE AREA AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 26.18Z NAM SUGGESTING THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO MOVING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST REMAINING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND IN THE
1000-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. UNTIL IT IS PAST THE AREA THOUGH...EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KLSE UNTIL ABOUT 01Z OR SO AND THEN A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS
COMPLETELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE IN THE CEILINGS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MVFR PREDOMINATING. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A CLEARING TREND MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. THE 26.21Z RAP INDICATES THIS CLEARING MOVES INTO
BOTH TAF SITES BY 12Z WHILE THE 26.18Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS IN PLACE INTO THE
MORNING AT KRST AND AFTERNOON AT KLSE. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 262322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
522 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST REMAINING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND IN THE
1000-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. UNTIL IT IS PAST THE AREA THOUGH...EXPECT THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KLSE UNTIL ABOUT 01Z OR SO AND THEN A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS
COMPLETELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. SHOULD STILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE IN THE CEILINGS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MVFR PREDOMINATING. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A CLEARING TREND MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. THE 26.21Z RAP INDICATES THIS CLEARING MOVES INTO
BOTH TAF SITES BY 12Z WHILE THE 26.18Z NAM HOLDS ONTO THE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS IN PLACE INTO THE
MORNING AT KRST AND AFTERNOON AT KLSE. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 262152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 262152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 262152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 262152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER NORTHWEST AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL /MAINLY DUE TO THE AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A LONG DURATION/ WAS 11 INCHES
8 MILES WEST OF FARIBAULT. OUR HIGHEST TOTAL IS 3.8 INCHES IN
MANTORVILLE MINNESOTA /DODGE COUNTY/.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 26.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TAKE
WITH IT THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH IT. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO OELWEIN IOWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 AM. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THAT THE 900 TO 700 FRONTOGENESIS WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW. ADDITIONAL TOTALS WILL BE
UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FROM
A TRACE TO A HALF INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH IT STILL
SNOWING...WILL JUST LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
3 AM TONIGHT. NAEFS STANDARD 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 TO 25.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA SINCE 1985...AND THE COLDEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SINCE 1958. MORE ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG 925 TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND FROM A TRACE TO 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF
THIS INTERSTATE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL SHUTOFF ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE THAT SOME SNOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INITIALLY...AND
THEN AS THIS LAYER WARMS UP THIS PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
SHIFT OVER TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT A BIT CONCERNED
THAT BY THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRECLUDE THIS FROM HAPPENING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NAM DEVELOPS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE AREA DRY...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO COLD
CONSIDERING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND THE MODELS LOOKING
LIKE THEY HAVE TOO MUCH SNOW INITIALIZED IN THEM. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO HIGH WITH ITS SNOW DEPTH
ALREADY. DUE TO THIS...RAISED THEM A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO RAISED
SATURDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.CLIMATE...THANKSGIVING
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR 10 DEGREES...ROCHESTER MINNESOTA WILL
BE WITHIN THE TOP 5 FOR THEIR COLDEST THANKSGIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURE. THEY ARE...

1/  7F 1930
2/ 12F 1985
3/ 14F 1952
4/ 14F 1886
5/ 17F 1956
   17F 1919

IT WILL BE ONLY THE 10TH TIME THAT ROCHESTER HAS BEEN 19 DEGREES
OR COLDER ON THANKSGIVING.  THE LAST TIME IT OCCURRED WAS 1985.

IN LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER
THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR NOT. AT MIDNIGHT...THE
HRRR...NAM...SREF...AND RAP HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 20
AND 22F. MEANWHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAS A MIDNIGHT HIGH
OF 18F. THIS WOULD PLACE THIS THANKSGIVING IN THE 9 TO 15 RANK.
THEY ARE...

7/  17F 1919
    17F 1952
9/  19F 1958
    19F 1956
    19F 1952
12/ 20F 1938
    20F 1905
    20F 1881
15/ 21F 1903
16/ 23F 1877

THE COLDEST IS 4 DEGREES IN 1872. OUR TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
LA CROSSE STARTED JUST OVER A MONTH BEFORE THIS RECORD WAS SET ON
OCTOBER 15 1872. IF WE ARE IN THE TEENS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IT
WILL ONLY BE THE 11TH TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
SINCE 1958 /19F/.

ALSO THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE THANKSGIVING
WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN LA CROSSE. THIS STRETCH IS THE
LONGEST. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH...THE RECORD WAS 6 YEARS /1900-1905
1909-14 AND 1986-91/.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
CLIMATE...BOYNE





000
FXUS63 KARX 261730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS TWO AREAS LOCALLY...ONE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DIVING
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER WITH A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MUCH OF THE DEEP LIFT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE WITH
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TAKING OVER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THAT JUST LEAVES THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY SNOW
CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR NOW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
700MB THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND WILL MEET UP WITH
THE COLD FRONT BAND AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THAT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT REACHING ANY SIGNIFICANT TOTALS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KARX 261730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS TWO AREAS LOCALLY...ONE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DIVING
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER WITH A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MUCH OF THE DEEP LIFT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE WITH
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TAKING OVER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THAT JUST LEAVES THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY SNOW
CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR NOW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
700MB THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND WILL MEET UP WITH
THE COLD FRONT BAND AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THAT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT REACHING ANY SIGNIFICANT TOTALS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT RST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE AT THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH VISIBILITY STAYING DOWN BETWEEN 3/4-2SM. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO LSE AROUND 21Z OR SO...BUT LIKELY WILL
NOT BE AS INTENSE AT 2SM OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND
BRINGS DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 261619
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS TWO AREAS LOCALLY...ONE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DIVING
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER WITH A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MUCH OF THE DEEP LIFT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE WITH
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TAKING OVER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THAT JUST LEAVES THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY SNOW
CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR NOW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
700MB THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND WILL MEET UP WITH
THE COLD FRONT BAND AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THAT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT REACHING ANY SIGNIFICANT TOTALS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 261619
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS TWO AREAS LOCALLY...ONE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DIVING
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER WITH A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MUCH OF THE DEEP LIFT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE WITH
THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TAKING OVER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THAT JUST LEAVES THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ANY SNOW
CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR NOW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
700MB THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND WILL MEET UP WITH
THE COLD FRONT BAND AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THAT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT REACHING ANY SIGNIFICANT TOTALS...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 261154
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 261154
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 260938
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 260516
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 252328
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER THE MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES OR REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
25.18Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT GOES BY BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. THE 25.18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WHERE
THE MODELS DIFFER IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
OCCUR. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPARED TO THE NAM
AND THUS GENERATES MORE SNOW WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AS DOES THE 25.15Z SREF. SO FOR NOW...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST AROUND 12Z WITH A MVFR CEILING WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE
VISIBILITY ALSO GOING DOWN TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY NOT REACH EAST INTO
WISCONSIN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW JUST FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING AT KLSE BEFORE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04





000
FXUS63 KARX 252328
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER THE MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES OR REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
25.18Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT GOES BY BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. THE 25.18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WHERE
THE MODELS DIFFER IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
OCCUR. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPARED TO THE NAM
AND THUS GENERATES MORE SNOW WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AS DOES THE 25.15Z SREF. SO FOR NOW...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST AROUND 12Z WITH A MVFR CEILING WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE
VISIBILITY ALSO GOING DOWN TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY NOT REACH EAST INTO
WISCONSIN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW JUST FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING AT KLSE BEFORE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KARX 251137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS WI/SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. KRST HAS ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...CEILINGS AT KLSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 25.14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL AS SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT KLSE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN LATEST 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS. SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST
THROUGH 26.12Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 251137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS WI/SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. KRST HAS ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...CEILINGS AT KLSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 25.14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL AS SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT KLSE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN LATEST 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS. SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST
THROUGH 26.12Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 250942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 250942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 250500
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF THE
MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 250349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATED...
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVING SHIFTED EAST...HAVE
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS - MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
JUST A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND
SECONDARY ROADS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 250349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATED...
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVING SHIFTED EAST...HAVE
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS - MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
JUST A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND
SECONDARY ROADS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 242330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 242330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK





000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 242034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE WILL BE DROPPING THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AND
DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY. SNOW CONTINUES BUT WE DONT FEEL WE
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE 4.5 TO 5 INCHES THERE. A HIGHER END ADVISORY.
SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. HAVE ALSO ENDED THE
ADVISRY AT 06Z/12AM LIKE OTHER ADVISORIES.

COLLABORATED THIS DOWNGRADE WITH NWS SULLIVAN AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 242034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE WILL BE DROPPING THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AND
DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY. SNOW CONTINUES BUT WE DONT FEEL WE
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE 4.5 TO 5 INCHES THERE. A HIGHER END ADVISORY.
SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. HAVE ALSO ENDED THE
ADVISRY AT 06Z/12AM LIKE OTHER ADVISORIES.

COLLABORATED THIS DOWNGRADE WITH NWS SULLIVAN AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 241813
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW





000
FXUS63 KARX 241813
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 241148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN HAS ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KRST AND IS IN THE PROCESS
OF DOING SO AT KLSE AS OF 24.1130Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES...
RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS AT KRST AND 26 KTS AT
KLSE. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AT
KRST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 24.12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 25.06Z AS HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KARX 241148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN HAS ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KRST AND IS IN THE PROCESS
OF DOING SO AT KLSE AS OF 24.1130Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES...
RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS AT KRST AND 26 KTS AT
KLSE. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AT
KRST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 24.12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 25.06Z AS HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




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